1/10/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 196K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 74K
Previous Revision: +38K to 241K
Rate Forecast: 7.0%
Rate Actual: 6.7%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 129’10
1st Peak @ 130’24 – 0831 (1 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 129’23 – 0840 (10 min)
33 ticks

Pullback to 130’19 – 1006 (96 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Strongly negative report missing the mark by 122K jobs, offset by a moderate previous upward revision of 38K jobs, and a drop of 0.3% in the unemployment U-3 rate due to over half a million people falling out of the labor force. This caused a decisive long spike with no premature move or market freeze that started on the 200 SMA and crossed the 100/50 SMAs and nearly reached the R4 Pivot for 46 ticks then left 20 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 129’19 with about 6 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture up to 30+ ticks with a target or exit within 10 sec as it hovered near the top of the bar. As the bar expired it drifted lower to hover in between the R3 Mid and R3 Pivots. After the :31 bar, it hovered around the R3 Pivot for a few min before reversing to the R2 Pivot on the :40 bar for a total of 33 ticks. Then it pulled back to gain 28 ticks in the next hour and a half as it eclipsed the R4 Mid Pivot.

11/8/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 121K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 204K
Previous Revision: +15K to 163K
Rate Forecast: 7.3%
Rate Actual: 7.3%
INDECISIVE…DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 133’07
Premature spike @ 134’10 – 0831 (1 min)
35 ticks

1st Peak @ 132’10 – 0832 (2 min)
64 ticks

Final Peak @ 131’18 – 1031 (121 min)
88 ticks

Reversal to 131’28 – 1053 (143 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Impressive report showing 83K more jobs created than expected, a modest previous upward revision of 15K jobs, and a match in the unemployment U-3 rate as potentially more people are looking for work. This caused a premature long move at 56 sec (4 sec early long decisive long spike of 28 ticks that started on the S1 Pivot and short up 35 ticks to cross all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 133’18 with abnormally high 11 ticks of slippage, then seen it peak immediately. Trading was halted between 0830:57 and 0831:02 for 5 sec, and resumed with the price at 133’07, back to the origin and a 25 tick drop. If you had a profit target set for anything less than 23 ticks, you would have exited the trade with profit prior to the halt in trading. If you did had a larger target, or no target, then you would have been stopped with about a 11 tick loss when trading resumed. The strange reaction could be due to some of the government shutdown effect, but this is early manipulation. After trading resumed, it fell another 29 ticks to the 1st peak of 64 ticks at the S2 Pivot. Then due to the large disparity of the jobs #s, it turned into a downward fan, unable to reverse more than a handful of ticks and stepping to a final peak of another 24 ticks in the next 2 hrs. After that it reversed for 10 ticks in 22 min and traded sideways.

9/6/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 178K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 169K
Previous Revision: -58K to 104K
Rate Forecast: 7.4%
Rate Actual: 7.3%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 128’30
1st Peak @ 128’13 – 0830 (0 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 129’30 – 0832 (2 min)
49 ticks

Pullback to 129’16 – 0832 (2 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Mixed report on the initial read caused indecision after the ADP report the previous day was also indecisive due to a matching result. Slightly weak report showing 9K less jobs created than expected, a very large previous downward revision of 58K jobs, and a 0.1% drop in the unemployment U-3 rate due to less people looking for work. Due to the close proximity of the jobs result to the forecast, this gave the rate more attention to cause a drop in the bonds initially, then when the full report was felt it turned around to rally strongly. The market moved 1 sec early at 08:29:59. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 128’26 with no slippage, then seen your stop fill with about 2-3 ticks of slippage at 129’01. Even though it was a loss, the low slippage and the stop holding make this a safe report. The drop nearly reached the LOD while crossing the S1 Mid Pivot, then the rally crossed all 3 major SMAs and reached the R2 Mid Pivot. After the top, it fell for 14 ticks on the :32 bar. I managed to get 8 ticks on the reversal with a short entry just above the R2 Mid Pivot, as I counted on the initial test of that level to be rejected by at least 10 ticks. After that it rallied again to gain another tick about 20 min later, then fell to the R1 Mid Pivot.

7/5/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 163K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 195K
Previous Revision: +20K to 195K
Rate Forecast: 7.5%
Rate Actual: 7.6%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 134’26
1st Peak @ 133’10 – 0831 (1 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 133’29 – 0833 (3 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’20 – 0915 (45 min)
70 ticks

Reversal to 133’04 – 0939 (69 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Strong positive report showing 32K more jobs created than expected, a moderate previous upward revision of 20K jobs, and a 0.1% increase in the unemployment U-3 rate due to more people looking for work. This caused the bonds to selloff for 48 ticks on the :30 bar, eclipsing all 3 major SMAs near the origin and the S3 Pivot near the bottom, leaving 6 ticks on the tail naked. With JOBB, you would not have filled due to excess slippage with the thin trading on the 4th of July weekend as slippage exceeded 8 ticks. The 8 tick limit is a restriction from the CME, but we will have a workaround for the next report. After the 1st peak, it reversed for 19 ticks in the next 2 bars, before falling for a 2nd peak of 22 more ticks in 45 min, eclipsing the S4 Pivot. Then it reversed for 16 ticks in the next 24 min and traded between the S4 Mid Pivot and LOD for the rest of the session.

6/7/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 167K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 175K
Previous Revision: -16K to 149K
Rate Forecast: 7.5%
Rate Actual: 7.6%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 141’06
1st Peak @ 140’02 – 0831 (1 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 141’22 – 0834 (4 min)
56 ticks

Notes: Mixed report showing only 8K more jobs created than expected, a moderate previous downward revision of 16K jobs, and a 0.1% increase in the unemployment U-3 rate due to more people looking for work. This caused the bonds to selloff for 36 ticks on the :30 and :31 bars, eclipsing the S1 Pivot, but unable to sustain the move as it retreated after 9 sec. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 140’27 with abnormally high 5 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen a 5 sec delay in the chart until 4 sec into the :31 bar when it continued short to 140’02. Then it retreated quickly up to 140’29 near breakeven. The correct play if you did not have a profit target that filled would be to close out as it started retreating more than 8 ticks. I managed to exit at 140’15 to capture 12 ticks. This is the ZB’s version of an indecisive reaction as the results were mixed, but it still gave a quick and capturable profit. The reversal recovered 56 ticks in 4 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and hitting the HOD. Then it fell again in the next 11 min to miss a double bottom by 3 ticks. Then it kept chopping mildly lower using the 100 SMA as resistance for several hours.