Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.04.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

May 042012

5/4/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 173K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:115K
Previous Revision:+34K to 154K
Rate Forecast: 8.2%
Rate Actual:8.1%
INDECISIVE then DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 100.79
1st Peak @ 100.44 / Reverse to 100.90 – 0231 (1 min)
-35 ticks / 11 ticks

Reversal to 101.17
73 ticks

Final Peak @ 97.83 – 0449 (139 min)
296 ticks

Reversal to 98.58 – 0518 (168 min)
67 ticks

Notes: Initially perceived mixed report with disappointing job #s but a drop in the rate coupled with a healthy upward revision to the previous report. This caused indecision on the :31 candle then a moderate move up followed by a huge downward fan as the reason for the drop in the U-3% was digested. over 500K people left the work force to cause the drop, along with the low # of jobs created caused the bearish tone to prevail. The FAN terminated at the S3 at 97.84 over 2 hrs after the report.

CL 04 12 (2 Range) 03.09.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Mar 092012

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.09.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Mar 092012

3/9/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 209K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:227K
Previous Revision:+41K to 284K
Rate Forecast: 8.3%
Rate Actual: 8.3%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 107.00
1st Peak @ 107.42 / Reversal to 106.90 – 0331 (1 min)
42 ticks / -10 ticks

Reversal to 106.13 – 0406 (36 min)
129 ticks (from peak)

Notes: Unique situation with 6 reports released at the same time. The Unemployment report basically matched the forecast, by modest exceeding the forecast of jobs created, but matching the rate. Normally this report would overshadow all others, but the trade balance report had the worst deficit in 4 yrs giving it more attention and causing the reversal and drop. With JOBB, you would have gotten in long at 107.14 after slippage, then after a rapid spike crossing the R1 line, it retreated to seesaw and hover at the R1 for 5 sec. That is the place to get out before the reversal would have taken away your profit and eventually hit your stop loss without action 52 seconds into the 0331 candle. The reversal spent 15 minutes tethered to the FIST with all SMAs before falling over 100 ticks just after the CL open.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 02.03.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Feb 032012

2/3/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 150K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:243K
Previous Revision: +3K to 200K
Rate Forecast: 8.5%
Rate Actual:8.3%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 96.41
1st Peak @ 97.26 – 0331 (1 min)
85 ticks

2nd Peak @ 97.47 – 0338 (8 min)
106 ticks

Reversal to 96.66 – 0351 (21 min)
81 ticks

Notes: Strongly positive report that greatly exceeded the forecast with Jobs and the rate with a negligible upward revision to the previous report causing a healthy spike upward and follow on 2nd peak. The jobs created were legitimate even if the rate job was “cooked”, so the reaction was decidedly positive. I would wait for the 2nd peak and close out in the 97.40 range.

CL 03 12 (2 Range) 02.03.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Feb 032012

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.06.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jan 062012

1/6/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 152K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:200K
Previous Revision:-20K to 100K
Rate Forecast: 8.7%
Rate Actual:8.5%
Previous Revision +0.1% to 8.7%
SPIKE / REVERSAL
Started @ 102.57
Peak @ 102.98 – 0331 (1 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 102.51 – 0332 (2 min) / 102.30 – 0342 (12 min)
47 ticks / 68 ticks

Notes: Mostly positive report exceeded the forecast with jobs and the rate, but disappointing previous revisions and the false rosy rate figures caused a relatively meager spike and follow on immediate and larger reversal. This is the second month where the Labor Dept is cooking the books, and the markets continue to see through it. Try to close out with just a handful of ticks on the 0331 candle.

CL 03 12 (2 Range) 01.06.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jan 062012

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.02.11

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Dec 022011

12/2/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 126K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 120K
Previous Revision:+20K to 100K
Rate Forecast: 9.0%
Rate Actual:8.6%
SPIKE / REVERSAL
Started @ 101.46
Peak @ 101.93 – 0331 (1 min)
47 ticks

Reversal to 100.78 – 0342 (12 min)
115 ticks

Notes: Strongly positive report exceeded the forecast on the face of it, but the market called BS on the 0.4% drop in the rate and rose a meager 47 ticks before reversing for 117. This is the first of a few falsely rosy reports. The markets know this and do not buy it. Following my normal routine, I would wait until the 0332 candle to decide to get out. After seeing a 10 tick drop, I would probably close around the R1 line if it did not bounce back up.

CL 03 12 (2 Range) 12.02.11

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Dec 022011

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.04.11

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Nov 042011

11/4/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 97K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:80K
Previous Revision:+55K to 158K
Rate Forecast: 9.1%
Rate Actual:9.0%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 94.78
1st Peak @ 94.06 / 94.93 – 0231 (1 min)
-72 ticks / 15 ticks

Notes: Mixed report that disappointed the forecast with jobs created, but excelled with an upward revision to the previous report and the rate falling. This mixed news caused indecision with a huge tail on the 0231 candle and a seesaw in the following 15 minutes. Still if you played it wisely and noticed the hovering for about 12 sec at the 94.10 level, you could have captured a good profit.

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