10/7/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 55K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:103K
Previous Revision:+57K to 57K
Rate Forecast: 9.1%
Rate Actual: 9.1%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 82.77
1st Peak @ 84.20 – 0234 (4 min)
143 ticks

2nd Peak @ 84.57 – 0240 (10 min)
180 ticks

Reversal to 83.69 – 0301 (31 min)
88 ticks

Notes: Strongly positive report that exceeded the forecast with a upward revision to the previous report causing a healthy spike upward. I would close out at the beginning of the 0234 candle when it started to reverse, or possibly wait for the 2nd spike at 0240 (143 ticks is large, but not gigantic).

9/2/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 74K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:0K
Previous Revision:-32K to 85K
Rate Forecast: 9.1%
Rate Actual: 9.1%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK *with premature 50 tick upward spike
Started @ 87.67
1st Peak @ 86.31 – 0231 (1 min)
136 ticks

2nd Peak @ 85.68 – 0307 (37 min)
199 ticks

Reversal to 86.26 – 0315 (45 min)
58 ticks

Notes: Strongly negative report that fell short of the forecast causing a healthy spike downward. However, the market uncharacteristically shot up about 50 ticks 2-3 sec before the report broke. This would have gotten you in long before taking you short to your stop loss. The numerical analysis above is with the removal of the 50 tick pre report spike. I would get in going short again around 0239-0243 and ride it until after the open.

8/5/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 89K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:117K
Previous Revision: +28K to 46K
Rate Forecast: 9.2%
Rate Actual:9.1%
SPIKE / REVERSAL
Started @ 86.42
Peak @ 89.19 – 0232 (2 min)
277 ticks

Reversal to 87.45 – 0235 (5 min) / 86.97 – 0251 (21 min)
174 ticks / 222 ticks

Notes: Moderately positive report exceeded the forecast causing a gigantic spike and follow on reversal. With the 277 tick explosion, the market is very overbought and the reaction cannot be sustained. Close out at the end of the 0231, or early in the 0232 when it starts to reverse. This would be a great setup to trade the reversal too, yielding 222 ticks (80% reversal) in 20 min.

My best trade ever, where I made $7340 with 4 contracts (I caught about 185 ticks)

7/8/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 97K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:18K
Previous Revision:-29K to 25K
Rate Forecast: 9.1%
Rate Actual:9.2%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 99.96
1st Peak @ 98.67 – 0231 (1 min)
129 ticks

2nd Peak @ 97.75 – 0239 (9 min)
221 ticks

Final Peak @ 97.58 – 0256 (26 min)
238 ticks

Reversal to 98.64 – 0312 (42 min)
106 ticks

Notes: Strongly negative report came in well short of the forecast causing a healthy spike and follow on 2nd Peak . There was no strong retracement after the initial spike – it went back to to touch the S1 line and then fell off of a cliff up to 0240. I would close out after seeing fall through the S2 line and cross over 200 ticks – that is impressive. It spent the next 20 min going basically sideways, so you would not be hurt by staying in betting on another drop.

6/3/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 161K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:54K
Previous Revision:-12K to 232K
Rate Forecast: 9.0%
Rate Actual:9.1%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK and DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 101.13
1st Peak @ 100.25 – 0231 (1 min)
88 ticks

Final Peak @ 99.67 – 0305 (35 min)
144 ticks

Reversal to 100.34 – 0335 (65 min)
67 ticks

Notes: Strongly negative report came in well short of the forecast causing a healthy spike and follow on FAN . Market kept falling until just after the open with the big red candle at 0304. I would close out at the end of the 0231 candle or wait and play the FAN for a few more ticks. You could also close out on the 0231 and then wait until the gap close / reversal and see how it plays out to jump into another short trade if the gap close “falls short”.