Unemployment Weekly | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 08.02.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Aug 022012

8/2/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 375K
Actual: 365K
DULL REACTION
Started @ 89.25
1st Peak @ 89.63 – 0233 (3 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 88.84 – 0238 (8 min)
79 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast by 10K jobs. Since traders were waiting on the tea leaves from the ECB press conference, this caused a muted :31 bar followed by a large spike on the :32 and :33 bars for 38 ticks due to a drop in the dollar. When the ECB conference disappointed, the dollar rallied strongly causing oil to selloff. This had little to do with the unemployment claims, but occurred at the same time and caused the nosedive from :37 bar to about an hour later. I only gave credit for the reversal to the tail on the :38 bar just above the PP Pivot, since it bounced from there and the claims influence was little if anything after that point.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.19.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 192012

7/19/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 367K
Actual: 386K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 91.50
1st Peak @ 91.24 – 0234 (4 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 91.52 – 0242 (12 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Report came in considerably worse than the forecast by nearly 20K jobs. This caused a short spike of 26 ticks drawn out over 4 bars that crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs, and sought out the 200 SMA. Then it reversed for 28 ticks to the level before the report was released on the :42 bar. The short move that started on the :49 bar may have been a 2nd peak, but the influence of jobless claims is normally only felt on the spikes until a max of 15 min, so I conservatively left it off. With JOBB, your order would have filled short. If you exited at the 100 SMA, that would have been a wise and safe move for minimal gain, but when it did not retrace above the 100 SMA, it has conviction to drop. Then the 200 SMA is an ideal exit.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 07.12.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 122012

7/12/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 376K
Actual: 350K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 84.66
1st Peak @ 84.78 – 0231 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 84.59 – 0233 (3 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 84.81 – 0239 (9 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 84.47 – 0243 (13 min)
34 ticks (3x bottom)

Notes: Report came in better than expected with 350K when 376K was expected. This was a 4-year low on the raw data and face of it, but when the seasonal factors were considered, it muted the enthusiasm. The reading came in artificially low due to the 4th of July holiday. It falls into the category of a 2nd peak, but really is a dull report with only 15 ticks on a 2nd peak. The initial spike of 12 ticks eclipsed the 200 SMA, then fell to touch the 50 SMA, then climbed for a 2nd peak 3 ticks above the initial peak just above the 200 SMA. The reversal was strong to go for a triple bottom at the 84.47 level from an hour earlier.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 07.05.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 052012

7/5/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 385K
Actual: 374K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 87.95
1st Peak @ 87.77 – 0231 (1 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 87.51 – 0234 (4 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 87.74 – 0235 (5 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than expected with 374K when 385K was expected. The market had recently hit a 3 week high of 89.00 and was strongly correcting lower. The claims were not enough to bring the bulls back into the market, so it was caught in the selloff. The market fell much more, but not due to the claims.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 06.28.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 282012

6/28/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 385K
Actual: 386K
DULL REACTION
Started @ 80.46
1st Peak @ 80.38 / Reverse to 80.45 – 0231 (1 min)
-8 ticks / 7 ticks

Notes: Report came in matching the forecast. This caused a dull reaction. With JOBB, your order might have filled (with slippage and the bid spread it is on the threshold). If so, when you see no impulse and hovering with a few tick loss, close out. The 33 bar reversed strongly from some other impulse, but that is why you do not want to wait for a profit and should be out of the trade by then.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 06.21.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 212012

6/21/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 381K
Actual: 387K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 80.60
1st Peak @ 80.42 – 0231 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 80.83 – 0234 (4 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Report came in slightly worse than the forecast . This caused a short spike of 18 ticks that was quick and unsustained. This is typical on a claims report that is within 10 of the forecast. With JOBB, your order would have filled short. Then move the stop loss to Break even and try to close with a handful of ticks before it reverses. The reversal reclaimed 41 ticks to briefly eclipse all three SMAs before falling again.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.07.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 072012

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.17.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 172012

5/17/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 368K
Actual: 370K
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 93.58
1st Peak @ 93.40 – 0231 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 93.80 – 0239 (9 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Report came in basically matching the forecast. The market decided to short the news for 18 ticks finding support on the PP Pivot, then reverse for double the rebound of 40 ticks.

CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.03.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 032012

5/3/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 381K
Actual:365K
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 105.08
1st Peak @ 105.16 – 0231 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 104.96 – 0234 (4 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than expected after 3 bad weeks with 365K. The spike yielded a meager 8 ticks, then reversed for 20 just below the 50 SMA in 4 min.

CL 06 12 (1 Min) 04.26.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 262012

4/26/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 374K
Actual:388K
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 104.10
1st Peak @ 103.84 – 0231 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 103.98 – 0236 (6 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report disappointed with 388K with the third straight week of disappointing employment #s breaking out of the 350 – 365K range. The spike crossed the 100 and 200 SMAs along with the PP Pivot to bottom at the LOD tested many times earlier in the day before retracing back for 14 ticks in 6 min.

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