Unemployment Weekly | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 3.5.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 282015

3/5/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 293K
Actual: 320K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008310
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008320 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008312 – 0830:18 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008322 – 0834 (4 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.008312 – 0847 (17 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008300 (just above the S4 Mid Pivot) / 0.008290 (just above the S4 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008320 (just above the 100 SMA) / 0.008329 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in worse than expected with 27k offset. This caused a quick and unsustainable long spike of 10 ticks that would have touched the inner short entry on the 100 SMA but not filled. Since it retreated quickly, cancel the order with no fill. It reversed 8 ticks in 12 sec back to the S3 Pivot before climbing for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks to the 200 SMA in 3 min. Then it reversed 10 ticks in 13 min to the S3 Pivot.

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 3.12.2015

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 012015

3/12/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: -0.1%
Previous revision: -0.2% to -1.1%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual: -0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 159’31
Wrong Direction spike to 159’27 – 0830:01 (1 min)
4 ticks

1st Peak @ 160’26 – 0830:51 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 160’15 – 0833 (3 min)
11 ticks

Continued Reversal to 160’09 – 0906 (36 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 160’25 – 0925 (55 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 159’30 – 1011 (101 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report was extremely weak for a second straight month. After seeing the retail results trending to overshadow the claims lately when double booked, we shifted to the bracket approach which would have also fared better last month. Well, manipulation came into play here similar to the NFP as we saw a 4 tick short move followed by whipsaw conditions for 2 sec, then a nice long spike for 27 ticks to the R2 Pivot which is excessively large for this report. The claims offset the report and may have been responsible for the opening indecision. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 159’27 with 1 tick of slippage, then you would have been immediately stopped out with a 5 tick loss (including 1 tick of slippage). The tight stop would have been useful here for protection. With such an oversized spike, you can expect a good reversal. We saw a 11 tick drop in the next 2 min to the R2 Mid Pivot, then another 6 ticks in the next 33 min to the 200 SMA. Then it pulled back 16 ticks for nearly a double top in 19 min before reversing 27 ticks to the origin in 46 min. So even with the loss on the initial trade, it was a good scenario to trade a reversal and more than make up for the loss.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 3.19.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 042015

3/19/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 295K
Actual: 291K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008282
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008285 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))3 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008277 – 0831:14 (2 min)
)))-8 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008273 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008262 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008292 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.008301 (just above the 200 SMA)

Notes: Report came in narrowly better than expected with 4k offset. This caused a quick and unsustainable long bump of 3 ticks that would have nearly reached the 13 SMA, then fallen 8 ticks in the next min to the S1 Mid Pivot. This would have fallen short of the inner tiers, so cancel the order.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 3.26.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 082015

3/26/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 291K
Actual: 282K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008434
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.008432 – 0.008436 – 0831 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008425 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008414 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008442 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.008454 (just below the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast with 9k offset. This caused a muted response with the :31 bar only moving within a 4 tick range overall. This would have been an obvious scenario to cancel the order on the dull movement and small reaction. It continued to have no impulse until about 10 min after the report when something else probably caused it fall about 15 ticks then continue to drift lower.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.2.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 082015

4/2/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 286K
Actual: 268K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008367
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008354 – 0830:39 (1 min)
)))-13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008360 – 0831:11 (2 min)
)))6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008348 – 0837 (7 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.008360 – 0852 (22 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008355 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008347 (on the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008379 (on the HOD) / 0.008386 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast with 18k offset while the concurrent trade balance report came in about 6B better than the forecast. This caused a slow developing short spike of 13 ticks that crossed the OOD, LOD, and S1 Mid Pivot. Since it took 25 sec to cross 0.008355, you should have cancelled the order. If you did not your inner long entry would have filled then allowed about 4 ticks to be captured as it hovered on the OOD. After that it fell for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in 5 min to reach the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed 12 ticks in 15 min to the OOD / 50 SMA.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.9.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 192015

4/9/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 283K
Actual: 281K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008347 (shift to 0.008342 – on the PP Pivot)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.008339 – 0.008342 – 0831 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008334 – 0832 (2 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.008343 – 0836 (6 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008334 (just below the 200 SMA) / 0.008324 (just below the OOD)
Short entries – 0.008350 (just above the HOD) / 0.008361 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in negligibly better than the forecast with only 2k offset. We saw the anchor point shift 5 ticks lower on the movement after the activation up to the release. Then we saw only 3 ticks movement on the :31 bar to make it an easy decision to cancel the order. Then it continued lower for another 5 ticks in the next bar to cross the 200 SMA before reversing 9 ticks in 4 min to the 100 SMA / PP Pivot. After that it continued to drift lower over the next few hours due to other reasons.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.16.2015

Building Permits / Housing Starts, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 202015

4/16/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 284K
Actual: 294K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008398
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008409 – 0830:26 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008395 – 0834:26 (5 min)
)))-14 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008406 – 0841 (11 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008397 – 0844 (14 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008389 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008378 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008407 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008418 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in worse than the forecast with 10k offset while the concurrent BLDG Permits / Housing Starts also moderately disappointed. This caused a quick long spike of 10 ticks in 1 sec that crossed the 100 SMA then eked out 1 more tick in 25 sec. This would have filled the inner short entry at 0.008407 with 1 tick to spare, then hovered near the top for about 90 sec before reversing 14 ticks in 3 min after crossing the 20 SMA. This would have allowed up to about 10 ticks to be captured with patience. Then it pulled back 11 ticks in 6 min before reversing 9 ticks in 3 min.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.23.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 012015

4/23/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 288K
Actual: 295K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008335
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008343 – 0830:07 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008334 – 0835:18 (6 min)
)))-9 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008327 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.008316 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008345 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008354 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Report came in worse than the forecast with 7k offset. This caused a quick long spike of 8 ticks in 7 sec that crossed the OOD and nearly reached the S1 Mid Pivot. This would have fallen short of the inner short entry at 0.008345 by 2 ticks and possibly offered a chance for a manual shifted entry as it retreated and then popped up later to the same area. If you did shift down, it would have filled short around 0.008341, then allowed about 6 ticks to be captured with patience after falling for over 4 min.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.30.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 012015

4/30/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 290K
Actual: 262K
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008416 (shift down 4 ticks to 0.008412 near the 200/100 SMAs)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008390 – 0830:03 (1 min)
)))-22 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008407 – 0830:33 (1 min)
)))17 ticks
————
Final Peak @0.008363 – 0943 (73 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 0.008377 – 1004 (94 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008403 (just above the OOD) / 0.008393 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008422 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008432 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in much better than the forecast with 28k offset while other concurrently released news came in mostly moderately disappointing. This caused a quick short spike of 22 ticks in 3 sec that crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and extended the LOD, then reversed. This would have filled your inner and outer long entries to make your average long position 0.008398. Then it reversed to hover at 0.008407 for 18 sec later in the :31 bar to allow a total of 18 ticks to be captured. After that it fell into a downward fan as it reached the final peak of 27 more ticks in 72 min as it crossed the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 14 ticks in 21 min to nearly reach the 100 SMA / S1 Pivot.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 5.7.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 122015

5/7/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 277K
Actual: 265K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008392
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008388 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-4 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008392 – 0830:04 (1 min)
)))4 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008381 – 0833 (3 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008386 – 0835 (5 min)
5 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.008379 – 0850 (20 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.008386 – 0902 (32 min)
7 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008383 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008373 (in between the OOD / S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008400 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.008412 (just below the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast with 12k offset. This caused a quick short spike of only 4 ticks in 1 sec that crossed the R1 Mid Pivot. This would have fallen short of the inner long entry at 0.008383 by 5 ticks and the move was too tame, so cancel the order. It chopped between the origin and R1 Mid Pivot for 23 sec before heading lower 7 ticks for a 2nd peak in 2 min. Then it reversed 5 ticks in 2 min before falling for a final peak of 2 more ticks in 15 min to reach the PP Pivot. Then it reversed 7 ticks in 12 min to the 50 SMA and traded sideways.

Older Entries Newer Entries