Unemployment Weekly | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 5.14.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 242015

5/14/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 272K
Actual: 264K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008395
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008406 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008391 – 0831:36 (2 min)
)))-15 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008400 – 0835 (5 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008393 – 0839 (9 min)
7 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008385 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.008376 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008403 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008415 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast with 8k offset. The concurrently released PPI report was disappointing. This caused a quick and briefly sustained long spike of 11 ticks immediately. This would have filled the inner short entry at 0.8403 then slowly fallen 15 ticks in 90 sec to allow up to 11 ticks to be captured where it hovered just above the 50 SMA. Then it pulled back 9 ticks in 3 min before reversing 7 ticks in 9 min.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 5.21.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 242015

5/21/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 271K
Actual: 274K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008257
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008264 – 0830:40 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008255 – 0833:46 (4 min)
)))-9 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.008249 – 0846 (16 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008248 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008238 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008265 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.008277 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with 3k worse than the forecast. This caused a slow long spike of 7 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs, then reversed 9 ticks in 3 min. As it had only moved 1 tick in 20 sec, cancel the order. It continued to reverse for another 6 ticks in 12 min then stalled for several min.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 5.28.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 052015

5/28/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 271K
Actual: 282K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008052
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008059 – 0830:03 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008056 – 0830:40 (1 min)
)))-3 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008061 – 0831:08 (2 min)
)))5 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.008045 – 0839 (9 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008042 (just above the LOD) / 0.008033 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008060 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.008070 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in 11k worse than the forecast. This caused a long spike of 7 ticks that crossed the S1 Pivot and 200 SMA then reversed 3 ticks before pulling back 5 ticks. Since we advise canceling the order after 20 sec, this would have just fallen short of the inner short entry so cancel it. We see that that the 200 SMA / S1 Pivot held as the reversal took 7 min to achieve 16 ticks.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 6.11.2015

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 212015

6/11/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.7%
Core Actual: 1.0%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 1.1%
Regular Actual: 1.2%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 0.2%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 148’08
1st Peak @ 148’00 – 0830:01 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 148’09 – 0830:02 (1 min)
9 ticks

Pullback to 147’30 – 0830:16 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 149’03 – 0833 (3 min)
37 ticks

Pullback to 148’22 – 0836 (6 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 149’13 – 0852 (22 min)
23 ticks

Pullback to 148’28 – 0915 (45 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report was released concurrently with Unemployment claims and Import Prices. All the news was bullish except for the claims (matching). The reaction defied logic as it fell, but quickly reversed and ended up long in the follow through. This caused a 8 tick short spike that reversed 9 ticks in the next sec then fell again after a few sec. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 148’03 with 2 ticks of slippage, then your stop would have been hit for a 5 tick loss 1 sec later. After the initial short move and instability, it reversed long for 37 ticks in 2 min to cross the R2 Pivot. Then it pulled back 13 ticks in 3 min before reversing 23 ticks in 16 min to the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 17 ticks in 23 min to the R2 Pivot.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 6.4.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 212015

6/4/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 280K
Actual: 276K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008053
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008046 – 0831:04 (2 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008052 – 0833:09 (4 min)
)))6 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008043 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.008033 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008061 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.008072 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in 4k better than the forecast. This caused a short spike of 7 ticks that crossed the OOD but took over 1 min to do so. With the gradual approach and minimal movement after 20 sec, cancel the order. After the peak it reversed 6 ticks in 2 min.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 6.18.2015

CPI, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 282015

6/18/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 278K
Actual: 267K
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008155
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008180 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))25 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008161 – 0831:21 (2 min)
)))-19 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008173 – 0834 (4 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.008156 – 0841 (11 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008143 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.008135 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008167 (just above the R2 Pivot) / 0.008175 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in 11k better than the forecast but was offset by a bearish CPI report released concurrently. This caused a long spike of 25 ticks that crossed the R2 Pivot and extended the HOD before reversing. This would have filled both short entries making the average short position 0.008171. It reversed quickly to hover about 10 ticks below the peak , then eventually dipped another 9 ticks to the 200 SMA to allow up to 18 total ticks to be captured. Then it pulled back 12 ticks in 2 min before reversing 17 ticks in 7 min after crossing all 3 Major SMAs.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 6.25.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 292015

6/25/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 271K
Actual: 271K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008098
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008092 – 0830:21 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008096 – 0830:38 (1 min)
)))4 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008088 – 0837 (7 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.008100 – 0854 (24 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008089 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008078 (just below the OOD)
Short entries – 0.008107 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.008118 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report came in matching for a dull reaction. This caused a short spike of 6 ticks in 21 sec. Cancel the order on the matching report and small reaction. It reversed 4 ticks before falling for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in 6 min. Then it reversed 12 ticks in 17 min to the 200 SMA.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 8.13.2015

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Sep 142015

8/13/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.4%
Previous revision: +0.5% to 0.4%
Regular Forecast: 0.6%
Regular Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 0.0%
SPIKE/ REVERSE…DULL EXIT
Started @ 158’06
1st Peak @ 158’15 – 0830:03 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 158’00 – 0830:30 (1 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 158’06 – 0831:37 (2 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 157’24 – 0836 (6 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report was released concurrently with Import Prices. All the news was matching or nearly matching leaving the previous bullish revisions the only driver on the news to cause choppy moves. This caused a 9 tick long spike that started on the OOD / S1 Pivot and climbed then quickly fell back to the fill point. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 158’09 with no slippage. This is where a profit target would have been prudent as a setting of 5 or less would have filled. Otherwise, recognize the quick reversal and matching conditions and manually exit near breakeven up for 8 sec after the report. Then it slowly trickled lower for a reversal of 15 ticks in 30 sec to the 200 SMA. After that it pulled back 6 ticks in 1 min to the OOD / S1 Pivot before reversing 14 ticks in 4 min to the S2 Pivot. Then it continued to chop with 8-10 tick swings every 5 min or so for the next hour.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.6.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Feb 252014

2/6/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 337K
Actual: 331K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009861 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009852 – 0830:18 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009864 – 0832:59 (3 min)
)))12 ticks
————
Extended Reversal to 0.009879 – 0858 (28 min)
27 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009853 (below the OOD and 200 SMA and also at the support level established on the 0753 bar) / 0.009842 (above the LOD)
Short entries – 0.009871 (on the HOD ) / 0.009880 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Report came in mildly better than the forecast by 6K jobs but was offset by a worse than expected Trade Balance report causing an initial short move of 9 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs, the S1 Mid Pivot and OOD, then hit the low from about 45 min earlier. A prudently placed inner long tier at 0.009853 would have filled. Then it would have rebounded long to give you about 8 ticks after it stalled. After that it chopped sideways for about 15 min before extending the rally long to hit the PP Pivot for another 15 ticks.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 1.23.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Feb 082014

1/23/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 331K
Actual: 326K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009612 (last price and recent avg)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009624 – 0830:19 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009614 – 0830:47 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))2nd Peak @ 0.009625 – 0831:21 (2 min)
)))13 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.009610 – 0840 (10 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009602 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009593 (just below the R1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009622 (just below the R3 Mid Pivot ) / 0.009632 (no SMA/Pivot within 5 ticks)

Notes: Report came in mildly better than the forecast by 5K jobs causing a long impulse on the 6J for 12 ticks initially as it hit the R3 Mid Pivot. That would have easily filled the inner short entry with 2 ticks to spare. Then it would have retreated to give you up to 8 ticks later in the bar for an ideal exit. If you left the order open, it would have tested the R3 Mid Pivot one more time, then engaged in a slower reversal of 15 ticks in 8 min back to the R2 Pivot. This would have offered up to 10-11 ticks to be captured on the 100 Pivot. After that it rallied long and sustained the bullish move.

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