1/9/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 337K
Actual: 330K
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009536 (last price)
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)))Trap Trade:
)))Dull Reaction with only 3 ticks span of movement
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Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009526 (on the S1 Pivot) / 0.009516 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009546 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot ) / 0.009554 (in between the HOD and R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching again and should have been a good setup for the trap trade approach, but was dull instead. This caused a muted reaction of only 3 ticks on the :31 bar. With no impulse to fill either trap order, cancel the order.

12/5/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 328K
Actual: 298K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE / REVERSE)
Anchor Point @ 0.009793 (avg price position for last few min)
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Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009772 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-21 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009784 – 0831:02 (2 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.009775 – 0831:43 (2 min)
)))-9 ticks
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Reversal to 0.009800 – 0858 (28 min)
25 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.009812 – 0916 (46 min)
37 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.009780 (above the PP Pivot/OOD with a 13 tick offset)
Short entry – 0.009806 (no barrier present – 13 tick offset)

Notes Report came in strongly better than the forecast by 30k jobs, causing a large unsustainable short spike that reached the PP Pivot for 21 ticks. That would have easily filled your long entry at 0.009780. Due to the large offset we saw a larger spike, so you would have spent several seconds in the red with about 5-6 ticks. Then you would have an opportunity for 2-3 ticks as the bar expired, or be patient and wait for a longer developing reversal and trail the stop higher. Be wary of a potential 2nd Peak and do not look for a target higher than 6-7 ticks as it encounters the 20 SMA. It eventually kept climbing, but that is not a certainty. The reversal reached the 200 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot, stalled and backed off, then continued climbing after about 25 min for another 12 ticks.

11/21/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 333K
Actual: 323K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE / REVERSE)
Anchor Point @ 0.009913 (avg price position for last few min)
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Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009905 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009913 – 0833:31 (4 min)
)))-8 ticks
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2nd Peak @ 0.009901 – 0845 (15 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.009916 – 0851 (21 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.009900 (below the S3 Pivot with a 13 tick offset)
Short entry – 0.009926 (below the S3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in moderately better than the forecast by 10k jobs, causing a relatively tame short spike that was halted at the S3 Pivot for 8 ticks as it also extended the LOD. The crossing of those 2 support barriers took a lot of the momentum out of the spike, but the form remained a good setup for the trap trade. When you see the impulse only reach the S3 Pivot, you can either cancel the order, or move the buy order up to about 0.009906 for a potential later fill. That would have filled up to 28 sec into the :31 bar, then given you an opportunity to exit with up to 7 ticks on the :34 bar. Very tame movement overall, but it still would be a safe opportunity. After the reversal, it fell again for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks as it crossed the S3 Pivot. Then it rebounded for 15 ticks, back to the 50 SMA only 6 min later. Other US news broke at 0900 to cause a short reaction.

11/14/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 331K
Actual: 339K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE / REVERSE)
Anchor Point @ 0.010008 (on the 200 SMA)
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Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.010019 – 0830:22 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.010011 – 0834:50 (5 min)
)))-8 ticks
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Pullback to 0.010018 – 0845 (15 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.009990 – 0924 (54 min)
28 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.009995 (just below the LOD)
Short entry – 0.010021 (below the S2 Mid Pivot with no other barrier present)

Notes Report came in mildly worse than the forecast by 8k jobs, causing a relatively tame long spike that most likely would have been just a couple ticks short of a fill. The crossing of all 3 major SMAs took a lot of the momentum out of the spike, but the form remained a good setup for the trap trade. When you see the impulse about 2 ticks short of the entry, you can either cancel the order, or move the bracket down to about 0.010017 for a potential later fill. That would have filled up to the end of the :31 bar, then given you an opportunity to exit with up to 6 ticks on the :34 bar. Very tame movement overall, but it still would be a safe opportunity. After the reversal, it pulled back for about 7 ticks then traded sideways until 0900. Then it fell for about 24 ticks, crossing all 3 major SMAs, the S2 Pivot and extending the LOD.

10/10/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 307K
Actual: 374K
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.010230
1st Peak @ 0.010248 – 0831 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.010193 – 0901 (31 min)
55 ticks

Notes: Report came in strongly worse than the forecast by 67k jobs due to the computer glitch resolution causing a large dump of applications from California and the government shutdown. This caused an unsustainable long spike of 18 ticks that crossed the S1 Pivot on the :31 bar, leaving 9 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 0.010238 with 4 ticks of slippage. The best exit would have presented itself 5-6 sec into the bar as it briefly hovered near the S1 Pivot before falling. Look for about 6-8 ticks. After the peak, it reversed methodically over the next 30 min for 55 ticks nearly reaching the S3 Mid Pivot.