10/3/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 315K
Actual: 308K
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.010244
1st Peak @ 0.010233 – 0831 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.010257 – 0839 (9 min)
24 ticks

Pullback to 0.010241 – 0859 (29 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Report came in mildly better than the forecast by 7k jobs, causing an unsustainable short spike of 11 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S2 Mid Pivot on the :31 bar, leaving 8 ticks on the tail naked. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 0.010238 with 2 ticks of slippage. After the fill, it would have briefly fallen below the 200 SMA, then retreated after 9 sec. Look to exit with 1-2 ticks better than breakeven. After the peak, it reversed for 24 ticks in the next 9 min, crossing the S1 Pivot. Then it pulled back to cross the 50 and 100 SMAs for 16 ticks in the next 20 min.

9/12/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 332K
Actual: 292K
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.010052
1st Peak @ 0.010025 – 0831 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.010055 – 0906 (36 min)
30 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.010094 – 1100 (150 min)
69 ticks

Notes: Report came in strongly better than the forecast by 40k jobs, but the cause was a computer glitch with 2 states data missing. This caused a short unsustainable spike of 27 ticks that reached the R1 Pivot on the :31 bar, then retreated back to the R2 Mid Pivot leaving 12 ticks on the tail naked. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at about 0.010035 with abnormally high 13 ticks of slippage. After the fill, it would have fallen and hovered within 5 ticks of the R1 Pivot until about 12 sec into the :31 bar. Look to exit around 0.010027 for about 8 ticks. As the cause of the large drop was revealed, the reversal took over quickly to regain 30 ticks in the next 35 min, back to the 100 SMA. Then it continued to step higher for an extended reversal of 69 total ticks over 2.5 hrs.

8/22/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 329K
Actual: 336K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010136
1st Peak @ 0.010147 – 0831 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.010141 – 0832 (2 min)
6 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.010163 – 0900 (30 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.010145 – 0928 (58 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report came in slightly worse than the forecast by 7k jobs, causing an initial long spike of 11 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs near the origin and almost reached the S3 Mid Pivot on the :31 bar. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at 0.010142 with 2 ticks of slippage. After the fill, it would have given a handful of ticks, then retraced back to the origin, before closing out the bar near the top. Given the propensity for reversals, rarity of 2nd peaks, and the small spread of only 7k jobs, it would be safe and wise to exit around 0.10146 with 3-4 ticks instead of waiting for it to reach the S3 Mid Pivot. After a small reversal, it achieved a final peak of 16 more ticks at the top of the hour, with no apparent resistance barrier present. Then it reversed 18 ticks in the next 28 min back to the 100 SMA.

8/1/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 346K
Actual: 326K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010137
1st Peak @ 0.010114 – 0833 (3 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.010135 – 0839 (9 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010105 – 0908 (38 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 0.010122 – 0924 (54 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast by 20k jobs, causing a short spike of 23 ticks. It crossed all 3 major SMAs and eventually reached the S2 Pivot while extending the LOD . With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 0.010128 with 5 ticks of slippage. With the large offset, be patient and look to exit at the LOD around 0.010118 for 10 ticks on the :32 bar. After reaching the S2 Pivot, it reversed for 21 ticks in the next 6 min, with an unsustainable wick poking through all3 major SMAs on the :39 bar. Then it chopped sideways below the SMAs before falling for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks 30 min later. Then it reversed for 17 ticks in the next 16 min back to the 50 SMA.

7/11/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 342K
Actual: 360K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.010078
1st Peak @ 0.010105 – 0831 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.010067 – 0837 (7 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Report came in worse than the forecast by 18k jobs, causing a choppy long spike of 27 ticks. The premature volatility would have been a tripwire to disable the strategy and cancel the order, but in this case JOBB would have worked well. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at 0.010082 with no slippage. Look to exit when it hovered near the top for about 9 sec. Sure enough it reversed and surrendered 14 ticks as the bar expired. The reversal achieved a total of 38 ticks in 6 min back to the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it chopped sideways as it stayed close to the major SMAs.