WASDE - Beans | JO Bracket Breakout

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5/12/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 970.00 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 973.00 – 1200:49 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 964.25 – 1205 (5 min)
35 ticks

Pullback to 967.25 – 1207 (7 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 956.25 – 1332 (92 min)
44 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the initial reaction would have been choppy but likely safe to trade, but the alternative worked too. As usual, it would have been fairly tame as it hovered around the old LOD and S1 Pivot to provide an anchor point at 970.00 at 32 sec. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 971.50 with no slippage, then you would have seen it continue to climb to reach the S1 Mid Pivot / OOD position. It hovered for 5 sec, then backed off and made a another attempt to break through the S1 Mid Pivot, but could not, so exit there with about 5 ticks. After that it reversed 35 ticks in 4 min after crossing the S2 Pivot. Then it pulled back 12 ticks in 7 min before reversing 44 ticks in 85 min. It used the 20 SMA as resistance and stepped lower into the session close.

6/10/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 946.00 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 953.25 – 1200:56 (1 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 946.00 – 1202 (2 min)
29 ticks

Pullback to 951.00 – 1205 (5 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 947.00 – 1206 (6 min)
16 ticks

Pullback to 953.00 – 1216 (16 min)
24 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the timing was ideal as it bottomed right at the activation time but the initial reaction would have been unsafe. As usual, it would have been fairly tame as it hovered below the S1 Mid Pivot provide an anchor point at 946.00 at 32 sec. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 947.50 with no slippage, then you would have seen it continue to climb to cross the R1 Mid Pivot then hover for about 8 sec to allow an exit with about 20 ticks. Then it fell for a double bottom 1 min later before pulling back 20 ticks in 3 min while crossing the 200 SMA. After that it reversed 16 ticks in 1 min to the 100 SMA before pulling back 24 ticks in 10 min to the R1 Mid Pivot. After that it continued to oscillate between the R1 Mid Pivot and S1 Mid Pivot into the session close.

7/10/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1021.00 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 1024.25 – 1200:38 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1010.50 – 1201:47 (2 min)
55 ticks

Pullback to 1029.00 – 1208 (8 min)
74 ticks

Reversal to 1022.00 – 1212 (12 min)
28 ticks

Pullback to 1036.75 – 1229 (29 min)
59 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the timing a little less than ideal as it hit a peak at 38 sec. The 32 sec setup would have seen an anchor point at 1021 at a point of consolidation just above the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 1022.50 with no slippage, then you would have seen it only gain a few ticks as it struggled with the 100/200 SMAs. With this picture of a reversal likely running its course and struggling to go higher, either look to exit or move the stop up to breakeven. It reversed 55 ticks in the next min to nearly reach the PP Pivot then pulled back 74 ticks in 6 min to the HOD. Then it reversed 28 ticks in 4 min to the cluster of SMAs before pulling back 59 ticks in 17 min.

8/12/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL FILL…SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 938.50 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 942.00 – 1200:42 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 923.00 – 1201:23 (2 min)
76 ticks

Pullback to 935.00 – 1202:20 (3 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 901.50 – 1209 (9 min)
134 ticks

Pullback to 922.50 – 1214 (14 min)
84 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the timing a little less than ideal as it hit a peak at 38 sec. The 32 sec setup would have seen an anchor point at 938.50 at a point of consolidation just below the S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 940.00 with no slippage, then you would have seen it only gain a few ticks as it struggled with the S3 Mid Pivot. Move the stop up to breakeven and see it get taken. It reversed 76 ticks in the next min then pulled back 48 ticks in 1 min. Then it reversed 134 ticks in 9 min to the S4 Pivot before pulling back 84 ticks in 14 min to the 13 SMA.

ZS 07-15 (1 Min) 5.12.2015

ZS 07-15 (1 Min) 6.10.2015

ZS 11-15 (1 Min) 7.10.2015

ZC 11-15 (1 Min) 8.12.2015