Caption for 4/10:
4/10/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast:  1.6M
Actual:  0.3M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 93.80
1st Peak @ 94.15 – 1031 (1 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 93.49 – 1045 (15 min)
66 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.25 – 1106 (36 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 93.73 – 1123 (53 min)
52 ticks

Notes: Minimal gain in crude inventories when a larger gain was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate gain and distillates were nearly flat.  This prompted a long move of 35 ticks on the first bar as the crude reading won the battle taking it to the HOD.  With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 93.92 with 32ticks of slippage.  Look to exit near the HOD at about 94.10 for 18 ticks.  After the peak at the HOD, the gain in gasoline took the market short for 66 ticks in 14 min, crossing all 3 SMAs and the PP Pivot.  Then it rebounded for a slightly larger 2nd peak of 10 more ticks in about 20 min.  The final reversal eclipsed the PP Pivot and 200 SMA for 52 ticks in 17 min.  After that it chopped sideways.

Caption for 3/27:
3/27/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.5M
Actual: 3.3M
<SPAN style=”BACKGROUND-COLOR: #FFFF00″>INDECISIVE</SPAN>
Started @ 95.82
1st Peak @ 95.93 – 1031 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 95.74 – 1031 (1 min)
-19 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in crude inventories when a smaller gain was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw and distillates saw a large draw. This prompted an indecisive reaction as the distillate and crude readings offset. It shot long for 11 ticks, then quickly reversed for 19 ticks and eventually settled lower. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you may have filled long at 95.93 with 1 tick of slippage or not been filled. If filled, you would have seen it hover between 5-10 ticks in the red for about 20 secm before it would have stopped you out. You could close out early, or move you stop loss up about 5 ticks, but you could have prevented the 15 tick loss. After the indecisive :31 bar, it continued to fall another 11 ticks, then bounced back up long for 40 ticks in the next 12 min to double top the :29 bar previously. Then it chopped sideways, oscillating around the SMAs.

3/13/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.3M
Actual: 2.6M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 93.12
1st Peak @ 92.92 – 1031 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 93.12 – 1032 (2 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 92.83 – 1037 (7 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 93.15 – 1113 (43 min)
31 ticks

Notes: Slightly higher gain in crude inventories than expected, while gasoline saw a large drop and distillates saw no change. This prompted a relatively tame and small short move of 20 ticks that crossed the 50/100 SMAs near the origin and eclipsed the 200 SMA at the bottom. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 93.00 with 2 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it hover between your fill point and 92.95 after a brief dip to 92.92. Look to exit with a handful of ticks and move your stop loss to break even. After a quick reversal on the next bar to the origin, it achieved a 2nd peak of 29 ticks 5 min later, nearly reaching the PP Pivot. Then it chopped sideways caught between the interweaving SMAs and eventually hit a reversal peak of 31 ticks about 43 min after the report.

2/27/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast:  2.4M
Actual:  1.1M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 92.82
1st Peak @ 92.98 – 1031 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 92.57 – 1049 (19 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Slightly smaller gain in crude inventories than expected, while gasoline saw a moderate drop and distillates saw a modest drop.  This prompted a relatively tame long spike reacting to the drop in gasoline.  It had been trending upward in the last hour, so the bullish momentum was waning.   With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 92.93 with 1 tick of slippage.  Then you would have seen it bob between 11 ticks in the red and 5 ticks until the end of the bar.  I would place a limit exit at 2-3 ticks in the green and it would fill about halfway into the bar.   After that it chopped lower for 41 ticks to cross the 50/100 SMAs  and PP Pivot, then eclipse the 200 SMA.

2/13/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast:  2.4M
Actual:  0.6M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 97.76
1st Peak @ 98.05 – 1032 (2 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 97.64 – 1034 (4 min)
41 ticks

Extended Reversal to 97.10 – 1048 (18 min)
95 ticks

Notes: Much smaller gain in crude inventories than expected, while gasoline saw a small drop and distillates saw a healthy drop.  This prompted an initial long spike of 29 ticks on the gasoline and distillates drop that crossed the 100 and 200 SMAs, the R1 Pivot, and peaked at the R2 Pivot.  Then the R2 held and the crude news took over to move the reversal.   With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 97.88 with 2 ticks of slippage.  Then you would have seen it bob between 5-7 ticks in the green for the rest of the bar before it popped up to the R2 Pivot on the next bar.  I would move the stop up to the 200 SMA (-4 ticks) and place a sell limit between 98.00 and the R2 Pivot.  That would have given you 12 or so ticks.  The large drop in distillates drove the secondary reaction with the reversal of 41 ticks 4 min after the release, then 95 ticks in 18 min after the release to eclipse the S1 Pivot.