Apr 202013

CL 03-13 (1 Min) 2_13_2013

2/13/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast:  2.4M
Actual:  0.6M
Started @ 97.76
1st Peak @ 98.05 – 1032 (2 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 97.64 – 1034 (4 min)
41 ticks

Extended Reversal to 97.10 – 1048 (18 min)
95 ticks

Notes: Much smaller gain in crude inventories than expected, while gasoline saw a small drop and distillates saw a healthy drop.  This prompted an initial long spike of 29 ticks on the gasoline and distillates drop that crossed the 100 and 200 SMAs, the R1 Pivot, and peaked at the R2 Pivot.  Then the R2 held and the crude news took over to move the reversal.   With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 97.88 with 2 ticks of slippage.  Then you would have seen it bob between 5-7 ticks in the green for the rest of the bar before it popped up to the R2 Pivot on the next bar.  I would move the stop up to the 200 SMA (-4 ticks) and place a sell limit between 98.00 and the R2 Pivot.  That would have given you 12 or so ticks.  The large drop in distillates drove the secondary reaction with the reversal of 41 ticks 4 min after the release, then 95 ticks in 18 min after the release to eclipse the S1 Pivot.