US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.22.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Aug 222012

8/22/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.1M
Actual: -5.4M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 96.73
1st Peak @ 97.18 – 0432 (1 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 96.74 – 0435 (5 min)
44 ticks

Notes: Large loss of inventory when no change was expected caused a decent long spike for 45 ticks in 1 min. I included the large green :30 bar since the spike occurred at :59 seconds and after the JOBB bracket would have activated. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 96.88, then had an opportunity to get at least 10 ticks or more with ease. The market was already trading above all 3 major SMAs at the report release. Then it reversed strongly, leaving a large wick on the :32 bar and giving back all of the gains in 5 min. Then it oscillated upward for the next 90 min finding support between the 50 and 100 SMAs, and resistance between 97.35 and 97.50.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.16.12

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Aug 162012

8/16/2012 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: -4.7
Actual: -7.1
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 94.74
1st Peak @ 94.65 – 0401 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 94.82 – 0402 (2 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report barely fell short of the forecast, causing a dull reaction. With JOBB, your order would not have filled until about 37 sec into the :31 bar, but close out after 10 or so seconds without a fill. It could only drop 9 ticks, then shot upward for 17 ticks from the low point to cross the 50 and 200 SMAs. Finding resistance there, it fell again. Then it eventually went long in the next hour, but that cannot be attributed to the report.

NG 09 12 (1 Min) 08.16.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Aug 162012

8/16/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 25B
Actual: 20B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.735
1st Peak @ 2.840 – 0431 (1 min)
105 ticks

Reversal to 2.685 – 0438 (8 min)
155 ticks

Notes: Smaller than expected gain in supply from the forecast caused a large long spike on the :31 bar. The bulls could not sustain the gains, leaving 50 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB, after 20-30 ticks of slippage, you would still have an opportunity for 40-50 ticks of profit. The market did short about 35 ticks on the :30 bar, but this was early in the candle and would not have filled your order short. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs and the PP/R1 Pivots in its ascent. 2.840 had been an area of resistance 2 days earlier, which served to cap the peak. The reversal gained 1.5x the peak in only 7 min to eclipse the S2 Pivot. If you did not trade the initial spike, a short trade at the 2.784 area would be wise after seeing resistance in that area on the :31 – :34 bars, then close out at the area of the S1 Pivot since the :30 bar saw support there. After the :38 bar eclipsed the S2 Pivot, a long entry would be wise to ride up to the 50 SMA.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.15.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Aug 152012

8/15/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -2.0M
Actual: -3.7M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 93.23
1st Peak @ 93.90 – 0433 (3 min)
67 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.27 – 0515 (45 min)
104 ticks

Reversal to 93.90 – 0535 (65 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Moderately bigger loss of inventory than expected caused a large long spike for 54 ticks in 1 min and 67 ticks in 3 min. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 93.38, then had an opportunity to get at least 30 ticks or more with ease. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs near the origin while the :31-:33 bars saw some resistance at the PP Pivot. It then achieved a 2nd peak for 37 more ticks to eclipse the R1 Pivot. The reversal was a relatively small 37 ticks, but the 93.90 continued to act as support long after the report released.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.14.12

Retail Sales Comments Off

Aug 142012

8/14/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.8%
Previous revision: -0.4% to -0.8%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual: 0.8%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to -0.7%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 93.58
1st Peak @ 93.69 / Reversal to 93.48 – 0231 (1 min)
11 ticks / -10 ticks

Reversal to 93.24 – 0247 (17 min)
45 ticks (2x)

Notes: Report was a big mixed bag causing indecision. On the one hand, we had the core and regular readings exceed the forecast by a healthy margin. Then we saw the previous revisions negatively correct the last months report significantly. PPI also broke at the same time with a matching report, which normally would be inconsequential, but in this case added fuel to the indecisive sentiment. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 93.67, then seen it retreat to hover at 93.64 to 93.69 in the next 12 sec. Close out there with minimal loss/gain. If you did not close out, you would have seen it march toward your stop loss and hit it at :44 sec into the :31 bar. After the :31 bar, it spiked up to 93.77 twice and found solid resistance, then fell down to 93.24, crossing all 3 major SMAs, finding solid support just below the PP Pivot.

ZC 12 12 (1 Min) 08.10.12

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Aug 102012

8/10/2012 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 821.75 – 0229
1st Peak @ 841.50 – 0231 (2 min)
79 ticks

Reversal to 808.75 – 0234 (5 min)
131 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a large long spike of 79 ticks over 2 min, crossing no SMAs, but the R1 – R3 Pivots. It peaked 24 ticks above the R3 Pivot, so no real resistance was encountered. Prior to the report, the market had been trading in a very tight range as the HOD and LOD were only separated by 18 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 824.00 with 2 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with at least 50 ticks as it eclipsed the R3 Pivot and hovered above for most of the :31 bar. It reversed for 131 ticks in the next 3 min, nearly reaching the S3 Pivot. After that it bounced up to the R1 Pivot, fell again for a double bottom, came back up to the PP Pivot, then fell again for a triple bottom.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.09.12

Trade Balance Comments Off

Aug 092012

8/9/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: -47.4B
Actual: -42.9B
Previous Revision: +0.7B to -48.0B
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 94.09
1st Peak @ 94.37 – 0232 (2 min)
28 ticks

Reverse to 93.95 – 0234 (4 min)
42 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast with the narrowest deficit in 9 months, coupled with a small previous report upward revision. Unemployment claims broke at the same time yielding a moderately positive result. Reaction to all the bullish news was reasonably strong as the market spiked long for 28 ticks in 2 min. The market had been trending upward in the very short term, so all 3 major SMAs were below the action and there was no apparent cause of resistance to arrest the upward movement. Then it reversed for 42 ticks to eclipse the PP Pivot and nick the 50 SMA finding solid support there. Then it chopped sideways through the pit open 30 min later. This report was not recommended for trading due to the combined medium impact reports breaking at the same time.

NG 09 12 (1 Min) 08.09.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Aug 092012

8/9/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 30B
Actual: 24B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.930
1st Peak @ 3.045 – 0432 (2 min)
115 ticks

Reversal to 3.012 – 0435 (5 min)
33 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.120 – 0457 (27 min)
190 ticks

Reversal to 3.068 – 0517 (47 min)
52 ticks

Notes: Less than expected gain in supply from the forecast caused a large long spike and 2nd peak with a moderate reversal. All 3 SMAs and the PP Pivot were below the trading action at the origin. The initial spike crossed the R1 and R2 Pivots. After a retracement for 33 ticks culminating on the :35 bar, the 2nd peak claimed another impressive 75 ticks beyond the initial spike on the :57 bar. Then the reversal achieved 52 ticks in 20 min after the 2nd peak, before bouncing higher again off of the 50 SMA.

ZB 12 12 (1 Min) 08.09.12

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Aug 092012

08/09/2012 30-yr Bond Auction (0701 HI time / 1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.58/2.7
Actual: 2.83/2.4
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 148’14 (0701)
1st Peak @ 148’05 – 0702 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 149’08 – 0751 (50 min)
35 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose strongly from the previous auction, to rise off of the multi-year low in July. With lessening demand for the bonds, the yield rose, and should have caused the ZB to spike long but it went short first and then reversed in the direction it should have originally gone. With JOBB you would fill short at 148’11 right on the LOD. Since it was trading close to the LOD before the auction and you have the S2 Pivot sitting just below, wait and see how it behaves as it interacts with the S2 Pivot. As it hit bottom at 148’05, 3 ticks below the S2, then bounced up, exit around 148’06 with about 5 ticks. The reversal was able to cross all 3 major SMAs and the s1 Pivot to peak at 149’08 50 min after the auction for 35 ticks. Since it went short first erroneously, this propelled it long and would have made an ideal trade.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.08.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Aug 082012

8/8/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.6M
Actual: -3.7M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 94.64
1st Peak @ 94.97 – 0431 (1 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 93.86 – 0443 (13 min)
111 ticks

Notes: Moderately bigger loss of inventory than expected caused a decent long spike for 33 ticks in 1 min. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 94.78, then had an opportunity to get at least 15 ticks or more with ease. All the SMAs were below the trading action, so the spike only crossed the R1 Pivot. The reversal probably reacted to a larger overbought market and the failed expectation of a bigger drop in inventory. It dropped strongly for 111 ticks in 12 minutes to find solid support at the 200 SMA, with the PP Pivot just below.

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