US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 09 11 (2 Range) 08.05.11

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Aug 052011

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 08.01.11

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Aug 012011

8/1/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 55.0
Actual:50.9
Previous revision: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 98.72
1st Peak @ 97.93 – 0401 (1 min)
79 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.28 – 0549 (109 min)
444 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of forecast causing a healthy down spike and initiating a FAN. It is hard to say in this case where the influence of the report ends and the snowball just continues to roll down the hill, but it methodically fell without a significant reversal for almost 2 hrs. I would have probably closed out after the 0435 candle anticipating a reversal there, not knowing the future.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 07.29.11

Advance GDP Comments Off

Jul 292011

7/29/2011 Quarterly Advance GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.7%
Actual: 1.3%
Previous Revision: -1.4% to 0.4%
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 97.59
1st Peak@ 97.08 – 0231 (1 min)
51 ticks

2nd Peak @ 95.81 – 0316 (46 min)
178 ticks

Reversal to 96.69 – 0357 (87 min)
88 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly negative, with a large previous downward revision. This contributed to the large downward fan. I would use the JOBB strategy here and stay in for about 45 min where the trend usually ends. I would close out around the S3 line @95.87. Also notice the hovering at the s2 line between 0230 and 0300, then the precipitous fall after the 0300 open. Then I would trade the reversal for about 30 min. The report was so negative, that the reversal was miniscule in comparison to the initial move.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 07.27.11

Beige Book Comments Off

Jul 272011

7/27/2011 FED Beige Book (0800 HI time / 1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 99.06
Peak@ 98.06 – 0842 (42 min)
100ticks

Notes: Report was underperforming overall showing moderate or no economic growth in all 12 sectors. This caused a methodical drop in oil of 100 ticks over 42 minutes.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 07.21.11

FED Testimony Comments Off

Jul 212011

7/21/2011 FED Testimony (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 100.40
1st Peak @ 101.12 – 0406 (6 min)
72 ticks

2nd Peak @ 101.32 – 0413 (13 min)
92 ticks

Reverse to 100.90 – 0420 (20 min)
42 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies before Senate Banking Committee on the implementation of the Dodd Frank Act. Caused a healthy spike, 2nd peak, and minimal reversal. After seeing the big green candle at 0413, I would close out on the 0414 as soon as it started retracing.

CL 04 12 (3 Min) 07.14.11

FED Testimony Comments Off

Jul 142011

7/14/2011 FED Testimony (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN (delayed)
Started @ 100.21 (0430)
Peak @ 96.06 – 0722 (172 min)
415 ticks

Reverse to 97.65 – 0818 (228 min)
159 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee (day 2). Do not trade day 2 with JOBB. in this case the surprise hit at 0430 during the QandA session when Bernanke quashed hopes of further stimulus after alluding to it the day before. The oil market fell off of a cliff in a long protracted downward FAN.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 07.13.11

FED Testimony Comments Off

Jul 132011

7/13/2011 FED Testimony (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 98.14
1st Peak @ 98.54 – 0402 (2 min)
40 ticks

2nd Peak @ 98.68 – 0407 (7 min)
54 ticks

Reverse to 98.39 – 0411 (11 min)
29 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee. Caused a healthy spike, 2nd peak, and minimal reversal. After seeing the two candles 0407-8 hit the 200 SMA and retrace, I would close out at the 200 SMA. The typical influence of these reports runs out at 20-30 min, but in this case the oil inventory report follows at 0430 causing pre-report speculators to increase the volatility.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 07.08.11

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jul 082011

7/8/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 97K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:18K
Previous Revision:-29K to 25K
Rate Forecast: 9.1%
Rate Actual:9.2%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 99.96
1st Peak @ 98.67 – 0231 (1 min)
129 ticks

2nd Peak @ 97.75 – 0239 (9 min)
221 ticks

Final Peak @ 97.58 – 0256 (26 min)
238 ticks

Reversal to 98.64 – 0312 (42 min)
106 ticks

Notes: Strongly negative report came in well short of the forecast causing a healthy spike and follow on 2nd Peak . There was no strong retracement after the initial spike – it went back to to touch the S1 line and then fell off of a cliff up to 0240. I would close out after seeing fall through the S2 line and cross over 200 ticks – that is impressive. It spent the next 20 min going basically sideways, so you would not be hurt by staying in betting on another drop.

CL 03 12 (2 Range) 07.08.11

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jul 082011

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 07.01.11

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 012011

7/1/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 51.9
Actual:55.3
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 95.00
1st Peak @ 95.75 – 0401 (1 min)
75 ticks

Reversal to 95.10 – 0408 (8 min)
65 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded forecast causing a healthy spike, and follow on reversal . Market had fallen about 60 ticks in the last 30 min and was starting to reverse prior to the report. Not needing much of a catalyst to spike long, the report delivered 75 ticks in the 0401 candle. Due to the rapid rise, this is a case for a retreat on the next candle. It gave back 65 ticks in the next 7 candles. The rise from 0420 to 0425 could have been a second peak, but the 12 min sideways action between 0408 and 0420 is unusual.

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