US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 05-14 (1 Min) 4.16.2014

Beige Book Comments Off

May 062014

4/16/2014 FED Beige Book (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 103.64
1st Peak @ 103.54 – 1403 (3 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 103.71 – 1408 (8 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 103.56 – 1419 (19 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 103.85 – 1426 (26 min)
29 ticks

Pullback to 103.64 – 1435 (35 min)
21 ticks

Notes: The Federal Reserve said today that economic activity continued to expand at a moderate pace during the reporting period of early February to mid March. Eight Districts reported moderate growth rates in economic activity as during the previous reporting period, while modest declines were reported for the Midwest and Northeast regions being attributed to the cold weather. The DX had minimal movement as it climbed a small amount. This caused the CL to fall for 10 ticks in 3 bars. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 103.59 with no slippage, then allowed 2-4 ticks as it crossed the 200/50 SMAs and PP Pivot. After that it reversed for 17 ticks in the next 5 min, then fell 15 ticks in 11 min. Then it continued to swing as the pit closed.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 4.17.2014

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

May 062014

4/17/2014 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 9.6
Actual: 16.6
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.009790
1st Peak @ 0.009779 – 1001 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.009793 – 1008 (8 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 0.009781 – 1059 (59 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a delta of 7 pts, causing a short spike on the 6J that started on the 100 SMA, then fell to cross the PP Pivot and OOD for 11 ticks on the :01 bar. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at about 0.009783 with 2 ticks of slippage, then stopped you at -5 ticks on the retracement unless you were quick. The reaction was very short lived due to crossing the PP Pivot and the reversal yielded 14 ticks in only 7 min to rebound past the origin to the 200 SMA. Then it pulled back to the PP Pivot for 12 ticks in the next 51 min.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 4.24.2014

Durable Goods Comments Off

May 122014

4/24/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: 2.0%
Previous revision: -0.1% to 0.1%
Regular Forecast: 2.1%
Regular Actual: 2.6%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 2.1%
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009757 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009748 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009756 – 0834:00 (4 min)
)))8 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009744 – 0851 (21 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.009759 – 0907 (37 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009747 (just below the S2 Pivot) / 0.009737 (on the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009767 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.009777 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in consistent with the core reading exceeding the forecast by 1.4%, while the regular reading exceeded the forecast by 0.5%. The claims were offsetting with 20K worse than expected. With the mixed news, this caused a small unsustainable short move of 9 ticks that just barely eclipsed the S2 Pivot and bounced. With the Trap Trade, you would have seen the short spike you’re your inner long entry by 1 tick. Cancel the order after 20 sec. It reversed for 8 ticks in the next 4 min to the 13 SMA before falling for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks after 20 min. Then it reversed for 15 ticks in the next 16 min to the 100 SMA.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 4.24.2014

7y Bond Auction Comments Off

May 132014

4/24/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.26/2.6
Actual: 2.32/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 134’06 (1301)
1st Peak @ 134’11 – 1309 (8 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 134’17 – 1341 (40 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 134’12 – 1358 (57 min)
5 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.32 rose from last month. This caused a small initial 2 tick bump followed by another 3 ticks in the next 7 min as it crossed all 3 major SMAs, the OOD, and the S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled initially at 134’08 with no slippage just a few sec after order placement. It would have hovered for about 3-4 min between breakeven and 1 tick loss. Move the stop to 134’05 and be patient using 134’09 or 10 as a profit target. This would have secured 1-2 ticks in a few min. After stalling on the OOD for about 10 min, it kept climbing another 6 ticks for a 2nd peak at the R1 Mid Pivot / HOD in about 30 min. Then it reversed for 5 ticks to the 50 SMA and PP Pivot.

CL 06-14 (1 Min) 4.23.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 162014

4/23/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.28M
Actual: 3.52M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.71M
Actual: -0.27M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.46M
Actual: 0.60M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 101.90
1st Peak @ 101.60 – 1030:17 (1 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 101.74 – 1033 (3 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 101.31 – 1037 (7 min)
59 ticks

Reversal to 102.04 – 1133 (63 min)
73 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in inventories when a lesser gain was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible draw when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a negligible draw was expected. The news was all consistent to cause an expected short reaction. This resulted in a 30 tick short spike that started on the 50 SMA then fell to cross the 100/200 SMAs, the OOD and reach the S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at about 101.76 with 4 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with about 10-12 ticks below the 200 SMA. After a reversal of 14 ticks that retreated to the 200 SMA, it fell for a 2nd peak of 29 more ticks in the next 4 min. Then it reversed strongly for 73 ticks in the next 56 min to the PP Pivot.

CL 06-14 (1 Min) 4.30.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 162014

4/30/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.37M
Actual: 1.70M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.60M
Actual: 1.56M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.58M
Actual: 1.94M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 99.49
1st Peak @ 99.79 – 1030:35 (1 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 99.60 – 1032 (2 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 99.90 – 1037 (7 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 99.63 – 1043 (13 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Modest draw in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest gain when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a moderate gain when a negligible gain was expected. The news was conflicting with the gas inventories gaining while the crude stocks fell. Usually this indicates a surprise increase in refinery production. This resulted in a 30 tick long spike that rose to cross the 50 and 100 SMAs. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have seen a delayed reaction as the movement would have been contained within the bracket for 13 sec. The prudent course of action would be to cancel the order, but if you left it on the chart, it would have worked out in your favor for a fill long at about 99.59 with no slippage, then given you an opportunity to exit with about 10 ticks below the 100 SMA where it hovered. After a reversal of 19 ticks that retreated to the 50 SMA, it rose for a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks in the next 5 min. Then it reversed for 27 ticks in the next 6 min to the 20 SMA. After that it rose for a double top, chopped sideways, then fell back to the S3 Mid Pivot about an hour after the report.

CL 06-14 (1 Min) 5.7.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 162014

5/7/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.42M
Actual: -1.78M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.02M
Actual: 1.61M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.93M
Actual: -0.45M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 100.09
1st Peak @ 100.39 – 1030:00 (1 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 100.05 – 1030:52 (1 min)
-34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 100.99 – 1103 (33 min)
90 ticks

Reversal to 100.57 – 1126 (56 min)
42 ticks

Notes: Modest draw in inventories when a modest gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest gain when no change was expected, and distillates saw a negligible draw when a negligible gain was expected. The news was conflicting with the gas inventories gaining while the crude stocks fell. Usually this indicates a surprise increase in refinery production. This resulted in a 30 tick long spike that rose to cross the 100 and 200 SMAs then reverse quickly back to the origin. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would filled long at 100.20 with 1 tick of slippage then seen it pop up to 100.38 and fall about 10 ticks to chop in the 100.20s immediately. A profit target of anything less than 18 would have filled, otherwise look to exit manually with a handful of ticks as a quick reversal is likely with the initial behavior. After a reversal of 34 ticks that retreated to the 50 SMA, it rose for a 2nd peak of 60 more ticks in the next 32 min, crossing the R2Pivot. Then it reversed for 42 ticks in the next 23 min as it breached the 50 SMA. After that it traded sideways.

CL 06-14 (1 Min) 5.14.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 162014

5/14/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.10M
Actual: 0.95M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.14M
Actual: -0.77M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.53M
Actual: -1.12M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 102.33
1st Peak @ 102.06 – 1031:43 (2 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 102.65 – 1049 (19 min)
59 ticks

Pullback to 102.32 – 1126 (56 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Modest gain in inventories when a negligible draw was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible draw when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a modest draw when a negligible gain was expected. The news was conflicting, but the crude figures drove the reaction. This resulted in a 27 tick short spike that fell to cross all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would filled short at 102.23 with no slippage on a relatively tame and slow move. With the 100 SMA and R2 Mid Pivot 1 tick above the fill point, it briefly struggled to fall for about 20 sec, then fell for another 18 ticks into the :32 bar as it reached the R1 Pivot. An exit at the 200 SMA at about 102.12 would have been prudent for about 10 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 59 ticks in the next 17 min as the gas results drove the action. Then it pulled back for 33 ticks in the next 37 min to the 100 SMA.

NG 05-14 (1 Min) 4.24.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

May 182014

4/24/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 40B
Actual: 49B
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.733
1st Peak @ 4.705 – 1030:00 (1 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 4.792 – 1031:04 (4 min)
87 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.682 – 1101 (31 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 4.719 – 1122 (52 min)
37 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a shortly sustained short spike. This was right at the time of contract rollover which split the volume over 2 contracts and often causes instability. There was also a 11 tick jump 5 sec early to be a trigger to cancel. The spike started above the OOD and fell to cross the S1 Mid Pivot for 28 ticks, then reversed after 3 sec. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.713 with about 10 ticks of slippage on the :31 bar, then been stopped out after 4 sec. It continued to reverse all the way up to the R2 Mid Pivot for 87 ticks on the :34 bar, then collapsed back to the origin. After chopping sideways, it fell for a 2nd peak of 23 more ticks to the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 37 ticks in the next 20 min back to the S1 Mid Pivot.

NG 06-14 (1 Min) 5.1.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

May 182014

5/1/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 75B
Actual: 82B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 4.778
1st Peak @ 4.718 – 1030:00 (1 min)
60 ticks

Reversal to 4.761 – 1036 (6 min)
43 ticks

Pullback to 4.728 – 1044 (14 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 4.755 – 1048 (18 min)
27 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a healthy short spike. The spike started on the 200 SMA and fell to cross the S2 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD for 60 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.760 with about 8 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall and hover near the S2 Mid Pivot for about 10 sec. A profit target of anything less than 40 ticks would have filled, otherwise look to exit with about 30-35 ticks where it hovered. After the hovering, it reversed to the S2 Pivot on the back end of the :31 bar, then continued to ascend to the old LOD position in the next 5 min. Then it pulled back for 33 ticks in the next 8 min and continued to chop in the next 45 min for large swings as it trended lower.

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