US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4.6.2016

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

May 022016

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4_6_2016

4/6/2016 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EDT)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 165’06
————
Trap Trade:
)))No move – 1401 (1 min)
)))2 ticks
————
1st Peak @ 165’12 – 1403 (3 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 165’08 – 1405 (5 min)
3 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 165’01 (just above the LOD) / 164’29 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 165’10 (just above the 200 SMA) / 165’14 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Dull move so cancel after 1 min.

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 4.5.2016

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 012016

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 4_5_2016

4/5/2016 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 54.1
Actual: 54.5
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.0090625
Head Fake @ 0.0090645 – 1000:07 (1 min)
4 ticks

1st Peak @ 0.0090490 – 1001:17 (2 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.0090620 – 1015 (15 min)
26 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.0090640 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.0090620 – 4 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Strange reaction as we saw a slow mild head fake in the long (wrong) direction. Be wary with this situation as you are seeing a long fill with the results and hovering on the fill point. Either exit quickly or move the stop to a very tight spot. After 30 sec it started to trickle short and gained momentum to achieve 27 ticks in 47 sec. Then a reversal back to the SMAs in 13 min.

NG 05-16 (1 Min) 4.14.2016

NG Storage Comments Off

Apr 262016

NG 05-16 (1 Min) 4_14_2016

4/14/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1B
Actual: -3B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.980
1st Peak @ 2.007 – 1030:02 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 1.991 – 1030:17 (1 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.020 – 1031:39 (2 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 1.999 – 1039 (9 min)
21 ticks

Pullback to 2.017 – 1047 (17 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1.974 – 1122 (52 min)
43 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.994 (long)
Slippage: 4 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.019 – 25 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.009 (just above the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Stable long spike initially crossed the 200 SMA / S1 Pivot, backed off a bit and then rebounded for a quick 2nd peak to the S1 Mid Pivot. This would have seen a low slippage fill and allowed up to 25 ticks to be captured, but a prudent target would have captured about 15 ticks with the resistance levels. Then it stepped lower to nearly reach the LOD in a little less than 1 hr.

NG 05-16 (1 Min) 4.7.2016

NG Storage Comments Off

Apr 252016

NG 05-16 (1 Min) 4_7_2016

4/7/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 7B
Actual: 12B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.968
1st Peak @ 1.944 – 1030:00 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 1.990 – 1037 (7 min)
46 ticks

Pullback to 1.969 – 1043 (13 min)
21 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.956 (short)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.953 – 3 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.945 (in between the R2 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA)

Notes: Short spike hit the 200 SMA / R2 Mid Pivot and recoiled instantly. Even a profit target would not have been setup in time. Look to exit with a few ticks as it was in an overall uptrend and crossed several layers of support in the move. Nice reversal to eclipse the R3 Mid Pivot and extend the HOD.

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 4.1.2016

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Apr 242016

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 4_1_2016

4/1/2016 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 50.8
Actual: 51.8
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008942
1st Peak @ 0.008929 – 1001:09 (2 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.008935 – 1004 (4 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008910 – 1014 (14 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 0.008921 – 1032 (32 min)
11 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008938 (short)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 0.008930 – 8 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008927 (just below the R1 Pivot) – move higher

Notes: Nice stable spike fell for 13 ticks in a little over 1 min. This would have seen a low slippage short fill then allowed up to 8 ticks to be captured as it slowly settled. Then a small reversal to the 13 SMA followed by a 2nd peak of 19 more ticks to the PP Pivot.

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 3.29.2016

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Apr 242016

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 3_29_2016

3/29/2016 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 93.9
Actual: 96.2
Previous revision: +1.8 to 94.0
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 0.008836
1st Peak @ 0.008833 – 1000:29 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 0.008838 – 1003 (3 min)
5 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Dull reaction but no move from the origin of 2 ticks or more until about 30 sec after the release. This would have been an easy decision to cancel the trade. After that it continued to remain between the S1 and S1 Mid Pivot for 25 min showing no impulse from the news.

FDAX 06-16 (1 Min) 3.30.2016

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Apr 242016

FDAX 06-16 (1 Min) 3_30_2016

3/30/2016 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 195K
Actual: 200K
Previous revision: -9K to 205K
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 10090.5
1st Bar Span:
10093.5 to 10090.0 – 0831 (1 min)
+6 ticks / -1 tick

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Matching report caused no reaction, so cancel the report after 10 sec.

FDAX 06-16 (1 Min) 4.1.2016

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Apr 242016

FDAX 06-16 (1 Min) 4_1_2016 FDAX 06-16 (Second) 4_1_2016

4/1/2016 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 206K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 215K
Previous Revision: +3K to 245K
Rate Forecast: 4.9%
Rate Actual: 5.0%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 9780.5
1st Peak @ 9792.0 – 0830:11 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 9776.0 – 0830:21 (1 min)
32 ticks

2nd Peak @ 9802.5 – 0830:45 (1 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 9769.5 – 0832 (2 min)
66 ticks

Pullback to 9801.5 – 0835 (5 min)
64 ticks

Reversal to 9742.0 – 0841 (11 min)
119 ticks

Pullback to 9772.5 – 0851 (21 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 9712.5 – 0906 (36 min)
120 ticks

Expected Fill: 9785.5 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 9791.0 – 11 ticks or 9802.0 – 33 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 9870.0 (just above the HOD) – move lower

Notes: The near matching report and conflict on the numbers versus the rate caused a small and oscillating reaction. Your would have had a no slippage long fill, then the exit would have varied greatly. 1. If quick you could have gleaned up to 11 ticks in the first 11 sec. If you did not adjust the stop then it would have barely absorbed the heat and allowed up to 33 ticks later in the bar. However, if the stop was adjusted any it would have taken you out for a loss. After that it reversed to the 50 SMA before pulling back for a double top. Then it stepped lower on a overall downtrend in the next 30 min.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4.1.2016

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Apr 242016

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4_1_2016

4/1/2016 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 206K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 215K
Previous Revision: +3K to 245K
Rate Forecast: 4.9%
Rate Actual: 5.0%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 164’18
1st Peak @ 164’02 – 0830:54 (1 Min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 164’14 – 0833 (3 Min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 164’01 – 0836 (6 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 164’27 – 0840 (10 min)
26 ticks

Pullback to 164’16 – 0842 (12 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 165’10 – 0916 (46 min)
26 ticks

Expected Fill: 164’14 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 164’03 – 11 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 163’09 (just below the PP Pivot) / 163’01 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Narrow offset caused a smaller but stable spike to fall to the PP Pivot late in the :31 bar. This would have seen a low or no slippage fill then allowed up to 11 ticks to be captured on the PP Pivot. After a reversal to the 13 SMA, it fell for a 2nd peak of 1 more tick to the LOD, then it reversed for the next 40 min to the R2 Pivot.

ZC 05-16 (1 Min) 4.12.2016

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Apr 232016

ZC 05-16 (1 Min) 4_12_2016

4/12/2016 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 364.00
1st Peak @ 360.00 – 1200:15 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 363.50 – 1203 (3 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 360.25 – 1204 (4 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 362.00 – 1206 (6 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 357.75 – 1212 (12 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 361.00 – 1215 (15 min)
13 ticks

Expected Fill: 362.75 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 360.25 – 10 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 360.50 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) and 357.75 (just below the PP Pivot)

Notes: Nice stable short spike of 16 ticks with a no slippage fill allowed up to 10 ticks to be captured. Typical quick swings followed to give way for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks to the PP Pivot.

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