NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3.24.2016

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3.24.2016
Apr 032016
 

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3_24_2016

3/24/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 20B
Actual: 15B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.786
1st Peak @ 1.801 – 1030:00 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 1.780 – 1030:14 (1 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.815 – 1031:47 (2 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.790 – 1035 (5 min)
25 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.827 – 1054 (24 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 1.792 – 1119 (49 min)
35 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.797 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 1.800 – 3 ticks (1.796 likely exit – 1 tick loss)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.814 (just above the HOD) and 1.823 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Very small spike initially of only 15 ticks stalled and hovered for 9 sec before reversing strongly offering a warning to exit. Move the stop up to a few ticks in the red or close near breakeven. After that it cycled higher for a 2nd and Final peak with large reversals in between.

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3.17.2016

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3.17.2016
Apr 032016
 

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3_17_2016

3/17/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -9B
Actual: -1B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.878
1st Peak @ 1.855 – 1030:02 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 1.885 – 1041 (11 min)
30 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.830 – 1056 (26 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 1.849 – 1136 (66 min)
19 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.912 – 1256 (146 min)
82 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.866 (short)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.856 – 10 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.855 (just below the PP Pivot) and 1.844 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Small spike fell to the PP Pivot, hovered and reversed. Due to the strong support of the PP Pivot, exit at first sign of hovering or a bounce from the low point. Then a reversal to the 100 SMA followed by a 2nd peak to the S1 Pivot. Then a slow developing reversal to the R2 Mid Pivot.

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3.10.2016

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3.10.2016
Apr 022016
 

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3_10_2016

3/10/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -51B
Actual: -57B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.786
1st Peak @ 1.752 – 1030:05 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 1.772 – 1030:53 (1 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.734 – 1035 (5 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 1.782 – 1044 (14 min)
48 ticks

Pullback to 1.737 – 1150 (80 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 1.774 – 1205 (95 min)
37 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.767 (short)
Slippage: 9 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.753 – 14 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.754 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Moderate spike with a nice 2nd peak to target the S1 Mid Pivot and LOD. Then a strong and quick reversal to the SMA cluster. Another cycle panned out in the next 1.5 hrs.

ZC 05-16 (1 Min) 3.9.2016

 WASDE - Corn  Comments Off on ZC 05-16 (1 Min) 3.9.2016
Apr 012016
 

ZC 05-16 (1 Min) 3_9_2016

3/9/2016 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 358.00
1st Peak @ 360.25 – 1200:21 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 358.50 – 1200:52 (1 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 361.50 – 1206 (6 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 358.50 – 1223 (23 min)
12 ticks

Expected Fill: 359.25 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Exit: 360.25 – 4 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 361.50 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) – move down a few ticks after small spike

Notes: Small spike offered no slippage fill then peaked just below the HOD and hovered to allow 3-4 ticks to be captured. Then a reversal and 2nd peak for 5 more ticks to the R1 Mid Pivot and a final reversal.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.10.2016

 30y Bond Auction  Comments Off on ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.10.2016
Mar 312016
 

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3_10_2016

3/10/2016 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.50/2.1
Actual: 2.72/2.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 161’25 (1301:30)
1st Peak @ 162’03 – 1303:34 (3 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 161’30 – 1307 (6 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 162’08 – 1326 (25 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 161’31 – 1334 (33 min)
9 ticks

Final Peak @ 162’14 – 1417 (76 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 162’08 – 1436 (95 min)
6 ticks

Expected Fill: 161’28 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 162’02 – 6 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 161’31 (just above the S2 Pivot)

Notes: Nice long spike, but very slow. It also stalled for about 30 sec at 161’29 as the resistance of the 100 SMA and S2 Pivot held it down. Once it broke free, it grabbed another 5 ticks. Then it stepped higher for a 2nd and Final peak as it used the 50 SMA as support.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.9.2016

 10y Bond Auction  Comments Off on ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.9.2016
Mar 312016
 

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3_9_2016

3/9/2016 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 1.73/2.6
Actual: 1.90/2.5
INDECISIVE
Started @ 162’31 (1301)
1st Peak @ 162’28 – 1301:35 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 163’04 – 1302:13 (1 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 162’21 – 1302:54 (2 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 162’31 – 1322 (21 min)
10 ticks

Expected Fill: 162’29 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 163’00 – 3 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 162’25 (just below the S2 Pivot)

Notes: A rare indecisive bond auction. It fell 3 ticks for a no slippage fill then backed off and reversed to the 200 SMA / S2 Mid Pivot. This would have hit the 3 tick stop. Then it fell strongly for a 2nd peak of 10 ticks in less than a min. After that it reversed 10 ticks to the 50/100 SMAs.

Notes: Spike was quick to shoot 6 ticks reaching the 100 SMA then hovering for 20 sec to allow 3 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed to the 200 SMA before climbing for a 2nd peak of 13 more ticks in the next hour.

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 3.4.2016

 Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly  Comments Off on FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 3.4.2016
Mar 302016
 

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 3_4_2016FDAX 03-16 (Second) 3_4_2016

3/4/2016 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 195K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 242K
Previous Revision: +21K to 172K
Rate Forecast: 4.9%
Rate Actual: 4.9%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 9839.0
1st Peak @ 9876.0 – 0830:01 (1 min)
74 ticks

Reversal to 9848.0 – 0830:23 (1 min)
56 ticks

2nd Peak @ 9900.0 – 0836 (6 min)
122 ticks

Reversal to 9769.0 – 0902 (32 min)
262 ticks

Expected Fill: 9863.5 (long)
Slippage: 39 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 9869.5 – 12 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 9870.0 (just above the HOD) – move lower

Notes: Slippage was huge so we will implement limit orders on the next one. Be sure to exit with the hovering before it fell to the stop after 20 sec. A nice 2nd peak for 50 more ticks after 6 min then a huge reversal in the following 30 min.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.4.2016

 Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly  Comments Off on ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.4.2016
Mar 302016
 

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3_4_2016ZB 06-16 (Second) 3_4_2016

3/4/2016 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 195K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 242K
Previous Revision: +21K to 172K
Rate Forecast: 4.9%
Rate Actual: 4.9%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 163’21
1st Peak @ 163’04 – 0830:01 (1 Min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 163’25 – 0830:27 (1 Min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 163’01 – 0831:13 (2 min)
20 ticks

Final Peak @ 162’08 – 0837 (7 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 163’16 – 0902 (32 min)
40 ticks

Expected Fill: 163’18 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 163’05 – 13 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 163’09 (just below the PP Pivot) / 163’01 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Strong report caused a moderate short move initially, but it recoiled and fully reversed after about 30 sec. A profit target of 13 ticks or less would have filled. If not filled, look to exit on the hovering at 163’10 at the PP Pivot. If you did not exit, the reversal would have stopped you out with 5 ticks in the middle of the :31 bar. Then it fell strongly again and kept stepping lower for a final peak of 45 ticks in 6 min as it eclipsed the S2 Mid Pivot. After the final peak, it followed the reversal of the equity markets and reversed for 40 ticks to the 200 SMA.

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 3.2.2016

 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change  Comments Off on FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 3.2.2016
Mar 282016
 

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 3_2_2016

3/2/2016 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 185K
Actual: 214K
Previous revision: -12K to 193K
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 9745.0
1st Peak @ 9763.0 – 0815:26 (1 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 9745.0 – 0818 (3 min)
36 ticks

Pullback to 9760.5 – 0821 (6 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 9724.5 – 0833 (18 min)
72 ticks

Expected Fill: 9750.0 (long)
Slippage: 4 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 9762.5 – 25 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 9760.0 (30 ticks and above the 50 SMA)

Notes: Nice stable spike peaked after 26 sec, then reversed after hovering above the 50 SMA. Look to exit on the hovering before seeing profit slip away. No 2nd peak, but still a decent pullback to the 50 SMA followed by a reversal.

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 3.3.2016

 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6J 03-16 (1 Min) 3.3.2016
Mar 262016
 

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 3_3_2016

3/3/2016 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 53.2
Actual: 53.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008807
1st Peak @ 0.008798 – 1000:19 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008816 – 1006 (6 min)
18 ticks

Pullback to 0.008801 – 1009 (9 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.008814 – 1027 (27 min)
13 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008804 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.008799 – 5 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008794 (in between the PP Pivot and 100 SMA)

Notes: Nearly matching report caused a 9 tick short spike that was fleeting after 29 sec. Another lesson to watch the forex factory results and be sure to exit quickly when you have profit on a near match, as a quick reversal is likely.

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