US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

NG 01-15 (1 Min) 11.26.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Jan 032015

11/26/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1200 EST)
Forecast: -145B
Actual: -162B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 4.473
1st Peak @ 4.529 – 1200:00 (1 min)
56 ticks

Reversal to 4.444 – 1200:17 (16 min)
85 ticks

Extended Reversal to 4.419 – 1203 (3 min)
110 ticks

Pullback to 4.503 – 1217 (17 min)
84 ticks

Reversal to 4.337 – 1353 (113 min)
166 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger draw on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused an initial long spike of 56 ticks that crossed the R1 Pivot and extended the HOD followed by an immediate reversal of 63 ticks 4 sec later. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at about 4.58 with 20+ ticks of slippage. A profit target of about 15-20 ticks would have filled immediately. Otherwise it would have stopped you out 4 sec later for about a 30 tick loss including slippage. It continued to fall another 22 ticks in the next 13 sec, just above the 200 SMA and OOD then 25 more ticks in the next 2 min. After that it pulled back 84 ticks in 14 min to eclipse the old HOD position. Then it engaged in a long term descent of 166 ticks in about 100 min to nearly reach the S1 Mid Pivot.

NG 01-15 (1 Min) 12.4.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Jan 032015

12/4/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -51B
Actual: -22B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 3.739
1st Peak @ 3.671 – 1030:00 (1 min)
68 ticks

Reversal to 3.700 – 1033 (3 min)
29 ticks

Pullback to 3.680 – 1039 (9 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 3.703 – 1048 (18 min)
23 ticks

Pullback to 3.680 – 1058 (28 min)
20 ticks

Notes: We saw a substantially smaller draw on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a short spike of 68 ticks as it crossed the S2 Pivot and extended the LOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at about 3.704 with 25 ticks of slippage. A profit target of 32 ticks or less would have filled immediately. Otherwise, expect a settling at the end of the bar or :32 bar due to the strong results. It drifted down to hover around 3.678 to allow about 25 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed 29 ticks in 1 min, crossing the S2 Pivot followed by a pullback of 20 ticks in 6 min. Then it reversed 23 ticks in 9 min before pulling back 20 ticks in 10 more min.

NG 01-15 (1 Min) 12.11.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Jan 032015

12/11/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -45B
Actual: -51B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 3.671
1st Peak @ 3.778 – 1030:41 (1 min)
107 ticks

Reversal to 3.737 – 1032 (2 min)
41 ticks

Pullback to 3.776 – 1037 (7 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 3.616 – 1220 (110 min)
160 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger draw on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a long spike of 60 ticks initially to the R1 Mid Pivot, then another 47 ticks in the next 40 sec as it eclipsed the R1 Pivot and extended the HOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at about 3.703 with 22 ticks of slippage. After the initial spike, it continued to trickle up and did not hover until it reached the R1 Pivot area. Look to exit there with about 70 ticks. After that it reversed 41 ticks in 1 min before pulling 103 min after crossing the S1 Pivot.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 12.12.2014

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Jan 052015

12/12/2014 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (0955 EST)
Forecast: 89.6
Actual: 93.8
TRAP TRADE – DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.0008432 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008424 – 0955:05 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Hovering @ 0.008424 until 0955:32 (1 min)

)))Pullback to 0.008417 – 0955:51 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008422 – 0956:08 (2 min)
)))5 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008408 – 0958 (3 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 0.008423 – 1003 (8 min)
15 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.008406 – 1008 (13 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.008430 – 1018 (23 min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008425 (just below the OOD) / 0.008417 (no SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008439 (on the 50 SMA) / 0.008448 (just above the 100 SMA)

Notes: Report came in higher than the forecast by 4.2 points causing a relatively large short reaction overall. It fell 8 ticks immediately to cross the OOD, then hovered for almost 30 sec without moving. Then it continued to fall another 7 ticks before the bar expired. This would have filled your inner long entry with 2 ticks to spare, then stayed at -1 tick as it hovered. With the strong results and lack of reversal, look to exit there for a negligible loss. As it continued lower it crossed the PP Pivot after 2 min for 9 more ticks before reversing 15 ticks in 5 min to the 13 SMA. Then it fell for a final peak of 2 more ticks in 5 min before reversing 24 ticks to the R1 Mid Pivot and 50 SMA in 10 min.

CL 01-15 (1 Min) 12.3.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jan 112015

12/3/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 1.30M
Actual: -3.69M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.04M
Actual: 2.14M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.18M
Actual: 3.03M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 68.04
1st Peak @ 67.74 – 1030:15 (1 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 67.90 – 1030:38 (1 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 67.37 – 1034 (4 min)
77 ticks

Reversal to 68.23 – 1107 (37 min)
86 ticks

Notes: Healthy draw in inventories when a modest gain was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate gain when a modest gain was expected, and distillates saw a moderate gain when a negligible draw was expected. This caused a decisive short move of 30 ticks in 15 sec to the 50 SMA followed by a reversal of 16 ticks to the 13 SMA 23 sec later. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 67.94 with no slippage. Look to exit just above the 50 SMA where it hovered for about 10 sec after the spike for about 17 ticks. After the reversal, it stepped lower for a 2nd peak of 47 more ticks in 3 min. Then it reversed 86 ticks in 33 min to the R1 Pivot. After that it fell for 125 ticks in about 40 min .

CL 01-15 (1 Min) 12.10.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jan 112015

12/10/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -2.24M
Actual: 1.45M
Gasoline
Forecast: 2.58M
Actual: 8.20M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.92M
Actual: 5.58M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 62.04
1st Peak @ 61.54 – 1030:46 (1 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 61.82 – 1033 (3 min)
28 ticks

2nd Peak @ 60.88 – 1039 (9 min)
116 ticks

Reversal to 61.62 – 1101 (31 min)
74 ticks

Final Peak @ 60.43 – 1147 (77 min)
161 ticks

Reversal to 61.06 – 1204 (94 min)
63 ticks

Notes: Modest gain in inventories when a moderate draw was expected, while gasoline saw a very large gain when a moderate gain was expected, and distillates saw a large gain when a negligible gain was expected. With all of the news strongly exceeding the supply estimates, this caused a decisive short move of 50 ticks in 46 sec followed by a reversal of 28 ticks to the old LOD position in 2 min. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 61.90 with 4 ticks of slippage. With the results, be patient for it to keep falling. An exit around 61.60 would have yielded 30 ticks, but if you stayed in for the 2nd peak, you could have had a lot more. It fell for a 2nd peak of 66 more ticks in 6 min as it crossed the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 74 ticks in 22 min to the 50 SMA before falling for a final peak of 45 more ticks in 46 min to nearly reach the S3 Pivot. Then it reversed 63 ticks in 17 min to nearly reach the 100 SMA.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 7.22.2014

CPI Comments Off

Jan 132015

7/22/2014 Core CPI (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009847
1st Peak @ 0.009858 – 0830:44 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.009846 – 0835 (5 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009873 – 0908 (38 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.009859 – 0938 (68 min)
14 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.009849 – 1044 (144 min)
24 ticks

Notes: The core reading fell short of the forecast by 0.1% while the broader reading matched the forecast. This caused a 9 tick immediate long spike that started on the LOD / S3 Pivot and rose cross the 50/100 SMAs and S3 Mid Pivot. It backed off 5 ticks, then slowly ascended for the 11 tick peak late in the bar to nearly reach the S2 Pivot. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 0.009852 with 1 tick of slippage. Look to exit at 0.009854 where it hovered with 2 ticks. After the peak, it reversed 12 ticks in 4 min back to the origin, before heading into a slow climb for a 2nd peak of 15 more ticks in 33 min to the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 14 ticks in 30 min to the S2 Pivot and another 10 ticks in the next 76 min to nearly reach the S3 Pivot.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 9.17.2014

CPI Comments Off

Jan 132015

9/17/2014 Core CPI (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: -0.2%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009326
1st Peak @ 0.009336 – 0830:03 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009341 – 0838 (8 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.009331 – 0845 (15 min)
10 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.009325 – 0926 (56 min)
16 ticks

Notes: The core reading fell short of the forecast by 0.3% while the broader reading fell short of the forecast by 0.2%. This caused a 10 tick long spike that started on the 200 SMA and rose to reach the S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 0.009331 with 1 tick of slippage. You would have seen it hover at 0.009334 – 5 for several seconds in the middle of the bar just below the S1 Mid Pivot. Look to exit there with 3-4 ticks. After 4 min of hovering just below the S1 Mid Pivot, it climbed for a 2nd Peak for another 5 ticks to cross the OOD in 7 min. Then it reversed for 10 ticks in 7 min and another 6 ticks in 41 min to the S1 Pivot.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.22.2014

CPI Comments Off

Jan 132015

10/22/2014 Core CPI (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.0%
Regular Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009350
1st Peak @ 0.009333 – 0831:09 (2 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.009345 – 0837 (7 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009320 – 0902 (32 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.009337 – 0944 (74 min)
17 ticks

Notes: The core reading fell short of the forecast by 0.1% while the broader reading exceeded the forecast by 0.1%. This caused a 17 tick short spike that started on the 20 SMA and fell to nearly reach the S3 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 0.009343 with 3 ticks of slippage. You would have seen it hover at 0.009336 for a long time in the middle of the :31 bar, so look to exit there with about 7 ticks. After testing the S3 Mid Pivot a few more times, it reversed for 12 ticks in 5 min to the 20 SMA and S2 Pivot. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks in 25 min to nearly reach the S3 Pivot before reversing 17 ticks in 42 min to the 100 SMA.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 12.17.2014

CPI Comments Off

Jan 132015

12/17/2014 Core CPI (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: -0.1%
Regular Actual: -0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008543
1st Peak @ 0.008557 – 0830:06 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.008545 – 0837 (7 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008569 – 0908 (38 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.008539 – 0943 (73 min)
30 ticks

Notes: The core reading matched the forecast while the broader reading fell short of the forecast by 0.2%. This caused a 14 tick long spike that started on the 200 SMA and climbed to reach the PP Pivot. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 0.008550 with 3 ticks of slippage. You would have seen it hit the PP Pivot then back off slowly you could have exited immediately with about 3-5 ticks, or wait for the secondary push later in the bar to get out for about the same result. After the peak it reversed 12 ticks in 6 min to the 20 SMA. Then it chopped for about 10 min before climbing to a 2nd peak of 12 more ticks in 31 min. Then it reversed 30 ticks in 35 min , crossing all 3 major SMAs.

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