US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 3.26.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 082015

3/26/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 291K
Actual: 282K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008434
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.008432 – 0.008436 – 0831 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008425 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008414 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008442 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.008454 (just below the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast with 9k offset. This caused a muted response with the :31 bar only moving within a 4 tick range overall. This would have been an obvious scenario to cancel the order on the dull movement and small reaction. It continued to have no impulse until about 10 min after the report when something else probably caused it fall about 15 ticks then continue to drift lower.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.2.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 082015

4/2/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 286K
Actual: 268K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008367
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008354 – 0830:39 (1 min)
)))-13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008360 – 0831:11 (2 min)
)))6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008348 – 0837 (7 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.008360 – 0852 (22 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008355 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008347 (on the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008379 (on the HOD) / 0.008386 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast with 18k offset while the concurrent trade balance report came in about 6B better than the forecast. This caused a slow developing short spike of 13 ticks that crossed the OOD, LOD, and S1 Mid Pivot. Since it took 25 sec to cross 0.008355, you should have cancelled the order. If you did not your inner long entry would have filled then allowed about 4 ticks to be captured as it hovered on the OOD. After that it fell for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in 5 min to reach the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed 12 ticks in 15 min to the OOD / 50 SMA.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 3.31.2015

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Apr 092015

3/31/2015 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 96.6
Actual: 101.3
Previous revision: +2.4 to 98.8
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008342
1st Peak @ 0.008336 – 1000:02 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.008343 – 1000:37 (1 min)
7 ticks

2nd peak @ 0.008331 – 1010 (10 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008358 – 1046 (46 min)
27 ticks

Pullback to 0.008339 – 1101 (61 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by a healthy margin of 4.7 pts coupled with a large upward revision to the previous reading. This caused a small short move of only 6 ticks that was shortly sustained. It started just above the R1 Mid Pivot and fell to reach the OOD / PP Pivot. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 0.008339 with no slippage then allowed an exit with 1-2 ticks as it hovered. Then it reversed 7 ticks later in the bar before falling for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks in 9 min after crossing the PP Pivot. Then it reversed 27 ticks in 36 min to cross the R2 Mid Pivot and extend the HOD before pulling back 19 ticks in 15 min to the R1 Mid Pivot.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.1.2015

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Apr 092015

4/1/2015 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 227K
Actual: 189K
Previous revision: +2K to 214K
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008329 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008352 – 0815:01 (1 min)
)))23 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008339 – 0815:06 (1 min)
)))-13 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008349 – 0815:53 (1 min)
)))10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008342 – 0816:06 (2 min)
)))-7 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008358 – 0823 (8 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 0.008344 – 0851 (36 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008319 (on the LOD / just above the S2 Pivot) / 0.008310 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008339 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008349 (in between the PP and R1 Mid Pivots)

Notes: Report came in 38k below the forecast offset with a negligible previous revision to cause a quick 23 tick long spike that started on the 200 SMA and rose to reach the R1 Mid Pivot. This would have filled your inner and outer short entries making your average short position 0.008344. Then it would have allowed a breakeven exit or 2 ticks of profit on the initial reversal or 2-4 ticks on the next reversal With the PP Pivot influencing the resistance, it would be okay to be patient. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks to nearly reach the R1 Pivot before reversing 14 ticks in 28 min to reach the 50 SMA / PP Pivot.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.1.2015

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Apr 102015

4/1/2015 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 52.5
Actual: 51.5
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008357
1st Peak @ 0.008368 – 1000:07 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008357 – 1003 (3 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008382 – 1032 (32 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 0.008361 – 1058 (58 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 1.0 pts. This caused a 11 tick long spike that started on the 20 SMA and rose to cross the R2 Mid Pivot in 7 sec. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long entry would have filled at 0.008360 with no slippage, then you would have seen it climb and hover around the R2 mid Pivot to allow 5-7 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 11 ticks back to the origin in 2 min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 14 more ticks in 29 min after crossing the R2 Pivot and nearly reaching the HOD. Then it reversed 21 ticks in 26 min to the 100 SMA.

CL 05-15 (1 Min) 3.25.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Apr 172015

3/25/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 5.13M
Actual: 8.17M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.63M
Actual: -2.01M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.83M
Actual: -0.03M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 48.19
1st Peak @ 47.64 – 1030:01 (1 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 48.08 – 1034 (4 min)
44 ticks

2nd Peak @ 47.38 – 1043 (13 min)
81 ticks

Reversal to 48.12 – 1104 (34 min)
74 ticks

Continued Reversal to 48.44 – 1152 (82 min)
106 ticks

Notes: Healthy gain in inventories when a lower gain was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw little change when a modest draw was expected. This caused a large short spike that started on the 20 SMA and fell for a total of 55 ticks in 1 sec as it crossed all 3 major SMAs, the OOD, and reached the PP Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at about 48.02 with 7 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it bounce off of the PP Pivot then chop/ hover around the 200 SMA and OOD for 5 sec. Look to exit there with the strong barriers in close proximity unwavering for about 30 ticks. After that it reversed 44 ticks in the next 4 min to the 100 SMA before falling for a 2nd peak of 26 more ticks in 9 min to nearly reach the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 74 ticks in 21 min to the R1 Pivot and another 32 ticks in 48 more min to reach the R2 Mid Pivot and extend the HOD.

CL 05-15 (1 Min) 4.1.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Apr 172015

4/1/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 4.19M
Actual: 4.77M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.94M
Actual: -4.26M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.29M
Actual: 1.33M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 47.98
1st Peak @ 48.33 – 1030:09 (1 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 47.91 – 1032 (2 min)
42 ticks

2nd Peak @ 49.17 – 1051 (21 min)
119 ticks

Reversal to 48.79 – 1057 (27 min)
38 ticks

Final Peak @ 50.45 – 1319 (169 min)
247 ticks

Notes: Healthy gain in inventories when a slightly lower gain was expected, while gasoline saw a healthy draw when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a modest gain when a negligible draw was expected. This caused a moderate long spike due to the gas results that started on PP Pivot / 13 SMA the 20 SMA and rose for a total of 35 ticks in 9 sec as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and extended the HOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 48.10 with 2 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it hover several ticks above the R1 Mid Pivot for 13 sec to allow an exit with about 20 ticks. After that it reversed 42 ticks in the next min to the 50 SMA / PP Pivot before climbing for a 2nd peak of 84 more ticks in 19 min to reach the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed 38 ticks in 6 min to the R2 Mid Pivot before settling into a long fan that gained another 128 ticks in the next 2.5 hrs.

NG 05-15 (1 Min) 3.26.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Apr 172015

3/26/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 10B
Actual: 12B
INDECISIVE – NO FILL
Started @ 2.739
1st Peak @ 2.775 – 1029:59 (1 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 2.705 – 1030:34 (1 min)
70 ticks

Continued Reversal to 2.667 – 1046 (16 min)
108 ticks

Notes: We saw a near matching minimal gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused an indecisive reaction. It started with a premature long move of 36 ticks at :59 sec that rose to eclipse the PP Pivot / HOD and quickly reversed to cross the S1 Pivot / LOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your setup would have most likely errored out as the whipsaw was underway before the order setup initiated. So this would have kept you from a losing trade. If in the off chance you were filled, you most likely would have been stopped, but the precise point would be hard to determine. After the reversal, it hovered around the S1 Pivot and then reversed another 38 ticks in 15 min as it crossed the S2 Pivot.

NG 05-15 (1 Min) 4.2.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Apr 182015

4/2/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -9B
Actual: -18B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.627
1st Peak @ 2.700 – 1030:04 (1 min)
73 ticks

Reversal to 2.667 – 1032 (2 min)
33 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.719 – 1117 (47 min)
92 ticks

Reversal to 2.696 – 1132 (62 min)
23 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger draw on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a healthy long move that rose to nearly reach the R2 Pivot, and extend the LOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your long order would have filled around 2.667 with about 30 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it continue to rise until it chopped above the R2 Mid Pivot for 8 sec. Look to exit there with about 12-20 ticks. After that it reversed 33 ticks in the next min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 19 more ticks in 45 min after crossing the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed 23 ticks in 15 min to the 50 SMA. Then it traded sideways.

ZC 12-14 (1 Min) 10.10.2014

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Oct 132014

10/10/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 341.75
1st Peak @ 348.50 – 1202:31 (3 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 340.25 – 1205 (5 min)
33 ticks

Pullback to 345.00 – 1207 (7 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 335.50 – 1251 (51 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a long move of 27 ticks over 3 bars that initially struggled to cross the PP Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 343.50 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop all over the place in the first 30 sec. After riding 11 ticks of heat briefly, when it settled down it climbed with conviction to eclipse the R1 Pivot. Be patient an look to exit at either the R1 Mid Pivot for 11 ticks of the R1 Pivot for 18 ticks. After the peak, it reversed 33 ticks back to the 200 SMA in 2 min. Then it pulled back 19 ticks in 2 min to the PP Pivot before reversing 38 ticks in 44 min to the LOD.

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