US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 12-13 (1 Min) 12.4.2013

Trade Balance Comments Off

Dec 202013

12/4/2013 Monthly Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: -40.3B
Actual: -40.6B
Previous Revision: -1.2B to -43.0B
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 0.009755
1st Peak @ 0.009761 – 0832 (2 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.009742 – 0839 (9 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report barely fell short of the forecast with an offset of 0.3B. The news caused a dull move initially that did not stray more than 2 ticks away from the anchor point until late in the :31 bar, but eventually achieved 6 ticks on the :32 bar. With JOBB you would not have filled as you should have cancelled within 10 sec with no fill. With the strong ADP report 15 min earlier, the market was rebounding off of a large bearish move, so the reversal on this report was overlapping with the pursuit of a 2nd peak on the ADP. It achieved 19 ticks in 7 min, crossing the PP Pivot. After that, it backed off and stepped lower one more time.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 11.21.2013

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Dec 202013

11/21/2013 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EST)
Forecast: 15.8
Actual: 6.5
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 130’16
1st Peak @ 130’21 – 1001 (1 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 130’27 – 1009 (9 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 130’18 – 1046 (46 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast with a delta of 9.3 pts, causing a long spike on the ZB that started just above the LOD after a downtrend, and crossed the 50 SMA on the :01 bar. With JOBB, your order would have filled long at about 130’20 with 2 ticks of slippage, then look to exit at 130’23 on the 100 SMA with 3 ticks. The reaction was tame and slow, but due to the large offset, you can patiently wait for a better exit. It stepped higher for a 2nd peak of 11 ticks in 9 min, reaching the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it chopped sideways for several min before reversing 9 ticks 30 min or so after the 2nd peak. After that it rebounded and rallied for the next hour or so.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 10.17.2013

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Dec 202013

10/17/2013 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 15.4
Actual: 19.8
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 133’24
1st Peak @ 133’17 – 1003 (3 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 134’02 – 1124 (84 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report moderately exceeded the forecast with a delta of 4.4 pts, causing a short spike on the ZB that started on the R2 Mid Pivot, crossed the 50/100 SMAs, and terminated at the 200 SMA on the :03 bar. With JOBB, your order would have filled short at about 133’21 with 1 tick of slippage, then look to exit at 133’18 on the 200 SMA with 3 ticks. After the peak, it struggled with the 200 SMA for a few min, the reversed to continue with the overall upward trend, capturing 17 ticks in the next 80 min. After that it pulled back and traded sideways.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 12.12.2013

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Dec 202013

12/12/2013 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 3.81/2.2
Actual: 3.90/2.4
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 129’09 (1301)
1st Peak @ 129’03 – 1306 (5 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 129’13 – 1317 (16 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose slightly from last month but, continuing the high rise since May as the talk of tapering of QE3 continues to take its toll. This caused the bonds to fall for 6 ticks, in a delayed reaction as it crossed all 3 major SMAs and hit the LOD / S1 Pivot in 5 bars. With JOBB you would have filled short at 129’06 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to capture 1-2 ticks as it hovered below the 200/100 SMAs. After reaching the LOD, it was unable to penetrate, so the reversal took over for 10 ticks in the next 10 min. It climbed to reach the S1 Mid Pivot, then backed off and traded sideways.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 12.11.2013

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Dec 202013

12/11/2013 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.75/2.7
Actual: 2.82/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 130’00 (1301)
1st Peak @ 129’24 – 1305 (4 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 129’30 – 1311 (10 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 129’15 – 1411 (70 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 129’20 – 1433 (92 min)
5 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose moderately since last month. This caused the ZB to fall for 8 ticks in 4 bars as it contended with the 200 SMA, then reached the S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 129’30 with no slippage, then seen it fall to struggle briefly with the 200 SMA, then break free for a few more. I would move the stop to 129’29 and place the target at 129’26. This would have given you 4 ticks with ease as the S1 Mid Pivot held. After the 1st peak, it reversed for 6 ticks in the next 6 min back to the 50 SMA. Then it fell for a slow developing 2nd peak of 9 more ticks in the next hour, crossing the S1 Pivot. After that it reversed for 5 ticks in about 20 min, back to the 50 SMA.

6J 12-13 (1 Min) 11.5.2013

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Dec 182013

11/5/2013 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 54.2
Actual: 55.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010170
1st Peak @ 0.010157 – 1001 (1 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010145 – 1006 (6 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 0.010160 – 1023 (23 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Moderately positive report exceeded the forecast by 1.2 points. This caused a short spike of 13 ticks on the :01 bar as it started in between the 100 and 200 SMAs, then crossed the 100/50 SMAs and the R2 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.010163 with 4 ticks of slippage, then seen it settle down and slowly drift lower. Due to the lower offset, it would be safe to anticipate the first bar as the entire move and get out at about 0.10158 for 5 ticks. The minimal reversal and steady drop over the next 5 min was unusual for this report as it achieved a 2nd peak of another 12 ticks to nearly reach the PP Pivot. Then it reversed for 15 ticks in the next 17 min as it crossed the 50 SMA and R2 Mid Pivot.

6J 12-13 (1 Min) 10.3.2013

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Dec 182013

10/3/2013 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 57.2
Actual: 54.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010256
1st Peak @ 0.010278 – 1001 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.010262 – 1012 (12 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010281 – 1029 (29 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 0.010271 – 1049 (49 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Strongly negative report fell short of the forecast by 2.8 points after two months of strongly positive reports. This caused a long spike of 22 ticks on the :01 bar as it started on the 13 SMA, then crossed the PP Pivot and OOD before pulling back. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 0.010264 with 5 ticks of slippage, then seen it pop up to the peak immediately and retreat to the fill point after a few seconds. The combination of the PP Pivot and OOD are a strong resistance barrier, so look for a conservative target at about 0.010271 for 7 ticks. This would have filled later in the :01 bar. After that it hovered just below the OOD, then reversed back to the S1 Mid Pivot for 16 ticks. Then it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks at the bottom of the hour, able to sustain the crossing of the PP Pivot for a longer period. Then it reversed back to the 50 SMA and OOD for 10 ticks in the next 20 min. After that it kept stepping higher for over an hour, but due to other factors than this report.

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 9.5.2013

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Dec 182013

9/5/2013 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 55.2
Actual: 58.6
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010011
1st Peak @ 0.009990 – 1001 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 0.010002 – 1002 (2 min)
12 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.009983 – 1018 (18 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 0.010007 – 1114 (74 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Another Strongly positive report exceeded the forecast by 3.4 points. This caused a short spike of 23 ticks on the :01 bar as it started on the 200 SMA, then terminated just above the S2 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.010001 with 7 ticks of slippage, then seen it keep attempted to penetrate through the S2 Pivot unsuccessfully. A target placed at about 0.009992 would have filled for 9 ticks. Not the best situation with the high slippage, but due to the large moves, it still allows for more than a handful of ticks to be captured. After the peak, it reversed for 12 ticks, then fell to chop sideways as it eventually reached a final peak of 7 more ticks in the next 15 min or so, as it crossed the S2 Pivot and the LOD. After that it reversed slowly almost back to the origin, crossing the 50/100 SMAs and reaching the 200 SMA in the next hour.

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 8.5.2013

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Dec 182013

8/5/2013 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 53.2
Actual: 56.0
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010147
1st Peak @ 0.010128 – 1001 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.010137 – 1002 (2 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010125 – 1007 (7 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.010148 – 1102 (62 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Strongly positive report exceeded the forecast by 2.8 points. This caused a short spike of 19 ticks on the :01 bar as it started on the 50/100 SMAs, then terminated about 2 ticks above the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.010135 with 9 ticks of slippage, then seen it hover with a handful of ticks. Look to exit with about 5 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 9 ticks, then fell for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks to cross the R1 Mid Pivot 5 min later. After that it reversed slowly back to the origin, crossing all 3 SMAs in the next hour.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 12.2.2013

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Dec 172013

12/2/2013 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 55.2
Actual: 57.3
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 130’11
1st Peak @ 129’29 – 1001 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 130’03 – 1018 (18 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 129’23 – 1119 (79 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 129’31 – 1131 (91 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report came in stronger than the forecast with 2.1 pts offset, and above 57.0 for the first time in over 2.5 yrs causing a large bearish reaction. We saw a drop of 13 ticks on the :01 bar that started on the S1 Mid Pivot and crossed all 3 major SMAs, then reached the S2 Pivot just above the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 130’08 with no slippage, then seen it fall and repeatedly bounce off of the S2 Pivot. Look to exit at about 129’30 for 8 ticks. After a minor reversal of 6 ticks that hit the 50 SMA then went sideways for 45 min, it fell again for another 6 ticks on the 2nd peak in about 30 min. Then it reversed to 8 ticks, crossing the S2 Pivot and 50 SMA in about 15 min. Due to the strong report, the reversal was short lived as it continued to hover near the LOD using the falling SMAs as resistance.

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