US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 12.4.2013

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Dec 162013

12/4/2013 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 172K
Actual: 215K
Previous revision: +54K to 184K
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 129’26
1st Peak @ 129’10 – 0816 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 129’16 – 0817 (2 min)
6 ticks

Final Peak @ 129’01 – 0906 (51 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 129’15 – 1004 (109 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast by 43K jobs along with a huge 54K upward revision to the previous report. This caused a short reaction of 16 ticks, peaking on the :16 bar as it collided with the S2 Pivot and extended the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 129’19 with 4 ticks of slippage, then seen it hit the S2 Pivot immediately and slowly retreat. I would exit as it is backing off with 7 ticks, or place a target at 129’10 or 09 and wait for it to fill, which would have happened on the :18 bar. After the peak, it retreated 6 ticks to the S2 Mid Pivot, then oscillated between the pivots for about 10 min, before the falling 12 SMA caused it to fall into a downward fan that slowly achieved another 9 ticks in the next 40 min, almost to the 129’00 area. Then it reversed for 14 ticks in the next hour, back to the 200 SMA.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 12.6.2013

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Dec 162013

12/6/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 180K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 203K
Previous Revision: -4K to 200K
Rate Forecast: 7.2%
Rate Actual: 7.0%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 129’08
1st Peak @ 128’01 – 0831 (1 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 129’16 – 0906 (36 min)
47 ticks

Notes: Moderately positive report showing 23K more jobs created than expected, a negligible previous downward revision of 4K jobs, and a suspicious drop of 0.2% in the unemployment U-3 rate. This caused a premature short move at 58 sec (2 sec early) of 20 ticks that started just below the R1 Pivot, crossed all 3 major SMAs and reached the S1 Pivot as trading was halted, then fell for another 19 ticks after the resumption. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 128’27 with abnormally high 9 ticks of slippage, then seen it freeze with 7 ticks on the board. Trading was halted between 0829:58 and 0830:03 for 5 sec, and resumed with the price at 128’16. Fortunately, the short move was in line with the reaction unlike last month, but this remains early manipulation. After trading resumed, it fell another 19 ticks to the 1st peak of 39 ticks just above the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it hovered between the 128’05 and 128’16, and never approached the low again. After the results sunk in, we saw a large reversal over the next half hour that overshot the origin by 8 ticks. This was most likely due to the suspect rate.

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 9.4.2013

Trade Balance Comments Off

Dec 042013

9/4/2013 Monthly Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: -38.7B
Actual: -39.1B
Previous Revision: +0.3B to -34.5B
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 0.010056
1st Peak @ 0.010061 – 0832 (2 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010068 – 0847 (17 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.010053 – 0907 (37 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report barely fell short of the forecast with an offset of 0.4B. The news caused a dull move initially that did not stray more than 2 ticks away from the anchor point until late in the :31 bar, but eventually achieved 5 ticks on the :32 bar. With JOBB you would not have filled as you should have cancelled within 10 sec with no fill. With only 5 ticks on the initial peak, it did not have a discernible reversal before achieving a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks in the next 15 min, crossing the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 15 ticks back to just above the 200 SMA. It is unclear if the movement was due to the news or not. After the reversal, it continued to step lower.

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 8.6.2013

Trade Balance Comments Off

Dec 032013

8/6/2013 Monthly Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: -43.1B
Actual: -34.2B
Previous Revision: +0.9B to -44.1B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.010199
1st Peak @ 0.010185 – 0831 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.010197 – 0846 (16 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast with only the second reading better than -40B since 2.5 years ago. The news caused a short move that fell 14 ticks, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Pivot and hitting an unlabeled area of support that the market hit about 90 min earlier. With JOBB you would have filled short at 0.010194 with 2 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to close with about 7 ticks when it hovered near the low of the bar at 0.10187. The reversal started with a retracement on the :31 bar leaving 5 ticks on the tail naked. This continued for another 7 ticks as it barely broke above the 50 SMA on the :46 bar. After that it cycled down and up again.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 11.8.2013

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Dec 022013

11/8/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 121K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 204K
Previous Revision: +15K to 163K
Rate Forecast: 7.3%
Rate Actual: 7.3%
INDECISIVE…DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 133’07
Premature spike @ 134’10 – 0831 (1 min)
35 ticks

1st Peak @ 132’10 – 0832 (2 min)
64 ticks

Final Peak @ 131’18 – 1031 (121 min)
88 ticks

Reversal to 131’28 – 1053 (143 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Impressive report showing 83K more jobs created than expected, a modest previous upward revision of 15K jobs, and a match in the unemployment U-3 rate as potentially more people are looking for work. This caused a premature long move at 56 sec (4 sec early long decisive long spike of 28 ticks that started on the S1 Pivot and short up 35 ticks to cross all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 133’18 with abnormally high 11 ticks of slippage, then seen it peak immediately. Trading was halted between 0830:57 and 0831:02 for 5 sec, and resumed with the price at 133’07, back to the origin and a 25 tick drop. If you had a profit target set for anything less than 23 ticks, you would have exited the trade with profit prior to the halt in trading. If you did had a larger target, or no target, then you would have been stopped with about a 11 tick loss when trading resumed. The strange reaction could be due to some of the government shutdown effect, but this is early manipulation. After trading resumed, it fell another 29 ticks to the 1st peak of 64 ticks at the S2 Pivot. Then due to the large disparity of the jobs #s, it turned into a downward fan, unable to reverse more than a handful of ticks and stepping to a final peak of another 24 ticks in the next 2 hrs. After that it reversed for 10 ticks in 22 min and traded sideways.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 10.22.2013

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Dec 012013

10/22/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 182K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 148K
Previous Revision: +24K to 193K
Rate Forecast: 7.3%
Rate Actual: 7.2%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 134’04
1st Peak @ 135’00 – 0831 (1 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 134’14 – 0833 (3 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Mixed report, but the jobs #s were overly dominating in a bearish manner to win out. Weak report showing 34K less jobs created than expected, a moderate previous upward revision of 24K jobs, and a 0.1% drop in the unemployment U-3 rate due to less people looking for work and part time job creation. This caused a decisive long spike of 28 ticks that started in the 20 SMA and crossed the R3 Pivot with 3 ticks to spare then backed off, leaving 9 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 134’15 with abnormally high 8 ticks of slippage, then seen it peak immediately then hover above 134’23 until 13 sec into the bar, allowing an easy exit with at least 8 ticks. In the latter half of the :31 bar and the following 2 bars it reversed for a total of 18 ticks, just short of the 13 SMA and R2 Pivot. Then it attempted a 2nd peak, but could go no higher than 4 ticks below the initial peak and 1 tick below the R3 Pivot. After that it fell to the 50 SMA and rode the 50 SMA to trend upward for several hours.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 11.1.2013

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Dec 012013

11/1/2013 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 55.3
Actual: 56.4
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 134’13
1st Peak @ 134’02 – 1002 (2 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 134’10 – 1005 (5 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 134’01 – 1015 (15 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 134’07 – 1031 (31 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report came in stronger than the forecast with 1.1 pts offset, and above 56.0 in a near repeat of last month’s situation. We saw a small drop of 11 ticks on 2 bars that started in the tight SMAs and crossed the S1 Pivot, extending the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 134’10 with no slippage, then seen it fall and hit the S1 Pivot to struggle briefly. It eventually conquered the S1 Pivot and gained a few more ticks. A profit target at 134’04 or 05 would be prudent for 5-6 ticks. After the 1st peak, it reversed for 8 ticks back to the 13/20 SMAs on the :05 bar, then fell again to gain 1 more tick on a 2nd peak on the :15 bar, just above the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back for 6 ticks in the next 16 min and traded sideways before falling again an hour later.

6J 12-13 (1 Min) 11.26.2013

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Nov 292013

11/26/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EST)
Forecast: 72.2
Actual: 70.4
Previous revision: +1.2 to 72.4
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.009842
1st Peak @ 0.009852 – 1001 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009864 – 1010 (10 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.009856 – 1013 (13 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a small margin of about 2 points. This caused a 10 tick long spike on the :01 bar that was tame and sustained, as it crossed the 50/100 SMAs, the PP Pivot, and the OOD. With JOBB you would have filled long at 0.009846 with no slippage, then seen it pop up and hover near the 100 SMA. Look to exit around 0.009851 with 5 ticks on the 100 SMA. After the spike, it continued to rise slowly without reversing for 12 more ticks in the next 9 min, crossing the 200 SMA and the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 8 ticks in 3 min back to the 200 SMA. After that it traded sideways between the 200 SMA and the R1 Mid Pivot.

ZC 12-13 (1 Min) 11.8.2013

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Nov 292013

11/8/2013 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 415.50
1st Peak @ 428.75 – 1200:06 (1 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 417.00 – 1200:30 (1 min)
-47 ticks

2nd Peak @ 429.50 – 1206 (6 min)
56 ticks

Reversal to 421.25 – 1224 (24 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Due to the US Gov shutdown, the October report was skipped and embedded in this report. Report Reaction caused a healthy but unsustainable long spike of 52 ticks on the :01 bar that started on the S3 Mid Pivot then crossed all 3 major SMAs and eclipsed the R3 Mid Pivot while extending the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 421.75 with abnormally high 20 ticks of slippage. After the fill, it peaked quickly and hovered between 424.75 and 428.75 until 13 sec into the bar. As this report is prone to achieve the peak quickly then reverse, look to exit where it hovered for 20+ ticks. After hovering, it reversed 47 ticks back to the 50 SMA at 30 sec, then rebounded for a 2nd peak that stepped higher to nearly reach the R3 Pivot on the :06 bar. Due to the high slippage, and the predictable model of this report, it would be safe to trade the reversal from the R3 Mid Pivot for 20-30 ticks, or trade the 2nd peak with a long entry when it fell to the 50 SMA for 20-40 ticks. After the 2nd peak, it reversed for 33 ticks to nearly reach the 50 SMA. After that it settled down and traded sideways.

ZC 12-13 (1 Min) 9.30.2013

Grain Stocks Comments Off

Nov 292013

9/30/2013 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 452.75
1st Peak @ 447.25 – 1201 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 455.50 – 1204 (4 min)
33 ticks

2nd Peak @ 442.25 – 1249 (49 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 445.75 – 1333 (93 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a relatively tame and decisive short spike. It fell to cross the S3 Mid Pivot for 22 ticks on the :01 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 451.00 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it fall for another 15 ticks. A target at the S3 Mid Pivot for 12 ticks would have easily filled. After the peak, it reversed for 33 ticks in the next 3 bars, crossing the 50 SMA and the PP Pivot. Then it fell again and trickled lower for a 2nd peak of 42 ticks, about 45 min later as it crossed the S4 Mid Pivot. Then it rebounded for 14 ticks back to the S3 Pivot 45 min later and traded sideways.

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