11/27/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 0.61M
Actual: 2.95M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.26M
Actual: 1.75M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.11M
Actual: -1.67M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 92.24
1st Peak @ 92.44 – 1032 (2 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 92.32 – 1032 (2 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 92.57 – 1034 (4 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 92.08 – 1124 (54 min)
49 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in inventories when a negligible gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest gain when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a nearly matching modest draw. With the results, we would expect to see a short reaction winning out based on the Crude and Gas results. Instead, we saw a tame and small long reaction that crossed the 50/100 SMAs for 20 ticks. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 92.34 with no slippage, then seen it chop between -7 and 9 ticks of profit for most of the :31 bar. Look to exit with just a few ticks above the 100 SMA. After the peak, it reversed for 12 ticks on the :32 bar, crossing the 100 SMA and reaching the 13 SMA. Then it rallied for another 13 ticks for a 2nd peak that crossed the 200 SMA. Then it reversed for 49 ticks back to just above the LOD in 50 min.

11/14/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 0.99M
Actual: 2.64M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.69M
Actual: -0.84M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.29M
Actual: -0.48M
DULL REACTION…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 93.02
1st Peak @ 93.12 – 1101 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 92.51 – 1111 (11 min)
61 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.43 – 1231 (91 min)
141 ticks

Reversal to 93.94 – 1331 (151 min)
49 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in inventories when a modest gain was expected, while gasoline saw a nearly matching negligible draw and distillates saw a negligible draw when a modest draw was expected. With the results, we would expect to see a short reaction winning out with indecision initially. We saw a muted reaction that would have remained inside the bracket for about 20 sec. After spiking long for only 10 ticks as it crossed the 50/100 SMAs, it reversed for 61 ticks in the next 10 min, crossing the S1 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would not have seen an impulse until 20 sec, so cancel the order. After the reversal, it changed sentiment and climbed for a large 2nd peak of 141 ticks in 80 min, crossing all 3 major Pivots and the R1 Pivot. Then it backed off slowly to reverses 49 ticks in an hour back to the R1 Mid Pivot.

10/30/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.23M
Actual: 4.09M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.14M
Actual: -1.71M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 97.15
1st Peak @ 97.31 – 1031 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 97.01 – 1031 (1 min)
30 ticks

2nd Peak @ 97.44 – 1035 (5 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 96.86 – 1038 (8 min)
58 ticks

Notes: Healthy gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a negligible draw was expected. Refinery capacity continues to taper off from the highs of the summer. With conflicting results, we saw a choppy reaction, but the indecision was borne out over the entire :31 bar, so it would have been safe to avoid a big loss. It initially spiked long for 16 ticks, then reversed after 24 sec to fall 30 ticks with 6 sec left in the bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 97.27 with 2 ticks of slippage, then after observation of the initial activity, place your target in the vicinity of the S1 Pivot at 97.42 and move your stop loss up to 97.22. With this approach the stop would have taken for a few ticks loss. Of note, a 15 tick stop loss would have been safe to ride initial volatility, but would have filled 38 sec into the bar after it hovered and reversed. After the reversal, it rallied for a 2nd peak of 13 more ticks to reach the S1 Pivot, then it fell dramatically in 3 min for 58 ticks. After that it rebounded again to match the 2nd peak about 20 min later, then chopped sideways.

10/21/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.16M
Actual: 4.00M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.10M
Actual: -2.57M
DULL REACTION…SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 100.37
1st Bar range: 100.35 to 100.45 – 1031 (1 min)
-2 to 8 ticks

1st Peak @ 100.63 – 1033 (3 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 100.08 – 1036 (6 min)
55 ticks

Notes: Healthy gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw when a negligible gain was expected. With conflicting results, we saw a dull reaction on the :31 bar, then a breakout long on the :32 bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would not have seen an impulse hit the bracket within 10 sec or the :31 bar, so cancel the order. This is quite strange as normally conflicting results deliver an indecisive and choppy reaction. . After the :31 bar, it gained 26 ticks in 2 min, eclipsing the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed strongly for 55 ticks in the next 3 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the S2 Pivot. After that it recovered to the 50 SMA, then drifted lower.

10/2/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.27M
Actual: 5.47M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.64M
Actual: 3.50M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 102.58
1st Peak @ 102.30 – 1031 (1 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 103.15 – 1036 (6 min)
85 ticks

Extended Reversal to 103.88 – 1116 (46 min)
158 ticks

Notes: Healthy gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a healthy gain when a negligible draw was expected. With consistent and heavily offsetting results, we should expect to see a large short reaction. Instead we saw a small short reaction that reversed after 2 bars, defying the conditions. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 102.44 with 4 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall and hover between 4 and 14 ticks of profit. A target just below the R1 Pivot at 102.34 would have easily filled for 10 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 85 ticks in about 4 min, extending the HOD. Then it backed off and continued to rise for another 73 ticks in 40 min, eclipsing the R3 Pivot. Then it backed off and traded sideways near the R3 Pivot.