9/25/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.13M
Actual: 2.64M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.14M
Actual: 0.22M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 103.52
1st Peak @ 103.15 – 1031 (1 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 103.38 – 1032 (2 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @102.82 – 1038 (8 min)
70 ticks

Reversal to 103.63 – 1131 (61 min)
81 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in inventories when a negligible gain was expected, while gasoline results were nearly matching with a negligible gain. With the supply gains is crude driving the action, we saw a moderate short spike on the :31 bar that crossed the 50 SMA and the R1 Mid Pivot for 37 ticks. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 103.37 with 5 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall and hover between 3 and 14 ticks of profit. A target just below the R1 Mid Pivot at 103.16 would have filled 8 sec into the bar for 21 ticks. Otherwise, look to exit with about 10 ticks when it hovered. After the peak, it reversed for 23 ticks on the next bar, falling for a 2nd peak of 33 more ticks as it eclipsed the PP Pivot 5 min later. Then it reversed for 81 ticks crossing all 3 major SMAs and reaching the R2 Mid Pivot in less than an hour.

9/11/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.50M
Actual: -0.22M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.25M
Actual: 1.66M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 107.52
1st Peak @ 106.95 – 1031 (1 min)
57 ticks

Reversal to 108.09 – 1209 (99 min)
114 ticks

Notes: Negligible draw in inventories when a modest draw was expected, while gasoline saw a modest gain when a modest draw was expected. With consistent results, we saw a large short spike on the :31 bar that crossed the 200 SMA and the PP Pivot for 57 ticks. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 107.39 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall and hover around the PP Pivot. A target a few ticks below the PP Pivot at about 107.07 would have easily filled for 30+ ticks. After the peak, it reversed strongly for 114 ticks in the next 1.5 hrs, stepping higher as each resistance level was conquered. After the reversal crossed the R2 Mid Pivot, it backed off and traded sideways. We are now seeing a theme where the reversal is much larger than the peak and pans out much slower.

8/28/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.20M
Actual: 2.99M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.19M
Actual: -0.59M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 109.94
1st Peak @ 109.63 – 1031 (1 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 110.45 – 1050 (20 min)
82 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in inventories when a negligible gain was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible draw when a modest draw was expected. With consistent results, we saw a short reaction as expected. It fell for 31 ticks, crossing the 50 SMA and the R2 Mid Pivot on the :31 bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 109.82 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it back off to about 10 ticks in the red before falling again. A target just below the R2 Mid Pivot would have filled for about 15 ticks profit. After the :31 bar, the next 2 bars hovered on the R2 Mid Pivot, then it reversed for 82 ticks in about 17 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and nearly reaching the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it fell and oscillated around the SMAs.

8/14/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.51M
Actual: -2.81M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.82M
Actual: -1.17M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 106.35
1st Peak @ 106.76 – 1032 (2 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 106.41 – 1033 (3 min)
35 ticks

2nd Peak @ 106.88 – 1038 (8 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 105.60 – 1114 (44 min)
128 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in inventories when a modest draw was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a lesser draw was expected. With consistent results, we saw an expected long move of 41 ticks on 2 bars as it crossed the PP Pivot near the origin, and the OOD and HOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 106.47 with 2 ticks of slippage. After it took a several seconds to breakout from the PP Pivot area, it peaked for 41 ticks midway through the :32 bar. A target above the OOD at about 106.60 would have filled easily for 13 ticks. After that it reversed for 35 ticks back to the PP Pivot and 50 SMA. Then it geared up for a 2nd peak in the next 5 min for another 12 ticks to reach the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 128 ticks in the next 36 min, crossing the S1 Pivot and extending the LOD. After that it rebounded long for the next hour as the bipolar sentiment shifted.

7/31/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -2.31M
Actual: 0.43M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.84M
Actual: 0.77M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 103.61
1st Peak @ 103.09 – 1033 (3 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 103.65 – 1046 (16 min)
56 ticks

Extended Reversal to 104.49 – 1129 (59 min)
140 ticks

Notes: Minimal gain in inventories when a moderate draw was expected, while gasoline saw a minimal gain when a minimal draw was expected. With consistent news, we saw an expected short move of 52 ticks in 3 min that started just above the R1 Mid Pivot then crossed all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot. After bottoming and crossing the OOD, it reversed. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 103.48 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it try to contend with the SMAs. A target placement at about 103.32 would have been safe, just below the SMAs and above the PP Pivot for about 16 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 56 ticks back to the origin in 13 min, then continued to step higher for the next 45 min to the R2 Pivot for another 84 ticks.