08/29/2013 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.03/2.5
Actual: 2.22/2.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 131’10 (1301)
1st Peak @ 131’20 – 1306 (5 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 131’16 – 1307 (6 min)
4 ticks

2nd Peak @ 131’27 – 1337 (36 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 131’18 – 1427 (86 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.22 rose quite a bit from last month. This caused a slow developing, but average size 9 tick long spike in 5 min. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 131’12 with no slippage, then seen it hover within 1 tick of the fill point for about 2 min. You could have exited within 1 tick of break even or if patient, exited with 5+ ticks on the :06 bar. After last month saw a dull reaction and the previous 2 months has larger quick reactions, this is a bit of an anomaly with the slow movement, but quite safe. After a quick 4 tick reversal, the 2nd peak achieved another 7 ticks in 30 min, as it rode the 13/20 SMAs upward and eclipsed the R2 Pivot. Then it gave back 9 ticks in the next 50 min, back to the 100 SMA and R2 Mid Pivot.

10/10/2013 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.82/2.4
Actual: 3.76/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 132’06 (1301)
1st Peak @ 132’15 – 1302 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 132’10 – 1304 (3 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’18 – 1307 (6 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 132’11 – 1312 (11 min)
7 ticks

Final Peak @ 132’23 – 1409 (68 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 132’18 – 1450 (109 min)
5 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell slightly from last month but still continued the high rise since May as the talk of tapering of QE3 continues to take its toll. Even though the last FED meeting did not result in scaling back the bond buying, the perception is for only a short delay. This caused the bonds to rally for 9 ticks, crossing no major SMAs and the S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at 132’12 with 3 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture about 2 ticks at most on the initial burst. Given the rarity of 2nd peaks in the past few weeks, it would be safe to get out with a modest gain. After the 1st peak, it stepped higher until a final peak of 17 ticks over an hour after the report, crossing the S2 Mid Pivot, then fell a modest 5 ticks and traded sideways just above the S2 Pivot.

8/8/2013 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.66/2.3
Actual: 3.65/2.1
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 134’12 (1301)
1st Peak @ 134’02 – 1302 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 134’12 – 1305 (4 min)
10 ticks

Extended Reversal to 134’16 – 1330 (29 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield remain unchanged from the last auction, but sustained the high rise compared to previous months as the talk of tapering QE3 continues to take its toll. This caused the bonds to fall for 10 ticks, crossing no major SMAs and the R1 Pivot, nearly reaching the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at 134’09 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to capture 6 ticks at most with ease. After the spike it reversed for 10 ticks in the next 3 min back to the 200 SMA and the origin. Then it fell to the R1 Pivot and rallied for an extended reversal of 14 ticks total about 25 min later. Then it oscillated sideways, falling for a double peak then rallying back to the 200 SMA.

9/11/2013 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.62/2.5
Actual: 2.95/2.9
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 128’22 (1301)
1st Peak @ 129’04 – 1302 (1 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 129’17 – 1336 (35 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 129’10 – 1411 (70 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose strongly from the previous auction after the brief pause last month to continue the trend of significant gains in the June and July auctions. This caused the ZB to rally for relatively large 14 ticks in 2 bars, crossing the PP Pivot / 200 SMA then hitting the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 128’25 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to capture up to 10 ticks on the initial move. I would place the exit just above the 200 SMA at about 128’31 for 6 ticks, given the typical yield of the report and the strong resistance level. After the initial peak, it stepped higher to a 2nd peak of 13 more ticks in about 35 min, reaching the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 7 ticks in the next 35 min and traded sideways.