US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 8.7.2013

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Oct 092013

8/7/2013 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.67/2.6
Actual: 2.62/2.5
DULL REACTION
Started @ 133’23 (1301)
1st Peak @ 133’25 – 1302 (1 min)
2 ticks

Reversal to 133’21 – 1302 (1 min)
4 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell marginally from the previous auction after significant gains in the last 2 auctions. This caused the ZB to yield a dull reaction of only 2 ticks on either side of the origin. Unfortunately this would have nicked our long entry with JOBB at 133’25, then the stop would have filled for a 3 tick loss. We continue to recommend a 2 tick bracket as the typical yield for this report is 10 ticks or less, so the extra tick is worth the risk. Also, a dull reaction will normally allow an exit at breakeven as the previous occurrences have.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 8.21.2013

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Oct 082013

8/21/2013 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 131’12
1st Peak @ 130’27 – 1401 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 131’02 – 1402 (2 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 130’13 – 1406 (6 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 131’01 – 1413 (13 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Very little of substance was offered by the FED to decipher the stance on tapering the bond buying. Still the lack of anything actionable against it caused the bonds to plummet. This caused the bonds to fall 17 ticks, then chop between 131’09 and 130’27 for the majority of the :01 bar. It eventually settled down to drift lower and reach a 2nd peak of 31 ticks at the S3 Mid Pivot after 6 min. With JOBB you would have filled short at 131’09 with no slippage. After observing the hovering up to 15 sec at 130’30, that would have been an ideal place to exit for about 10 ticks before the volatile swings happened. If you did not exit, there would have been plenty of opportunity later for an exit between breakeven and up to 27 ticks. After the 2nd peak it reversed for 20 ticks back to the 200 SMA, then fell again, tested the 200 SMA one more time and drifted lower into the session close.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 10.1.2013

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Oct 032013

10/1/2013 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 55.3
Actual: 56.2
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 133’08
1st Peak @ 133’01 – 1001 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 133’10 – 1016 (16 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’30 – 1039 (39 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 133’06 – 1115 (75 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report came in stronger than the forecast with 0.9 pts offset, and above 56.0. We saw a small drop of 6 ticks on 1 bar that crossed the 100 SMA and nearly reached the 200 SMA and S1 Pivot as the market was engaged in a small rally over the last 2 hrs. It was unsustainable and retreated back to the origin. More than likely the theatrics with the US government shutdown overshadowed this report to cause the muted reaction. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 133’05 with no slippage. If you did not set a profit target, look to exit at about 133’03 for 2 ticks as it hovered near the low until 16 sec into the bar before reversing. After the 1st peak, it flirted with the 100 SMA for a few min, then reversed to 133’10 on the :16 bar for 9 ticks. Then it geared up for a 2nd peak of 10 ticks, crossing the 200 SMA and S1 Pivot, before reversing for 8 ticks. Very tame market…

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 9.6.2013

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Oct 022013

9/6/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 178K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 169K
Previous Revision: -58K to 104K
Rate Forecast: 7.4%
Rate Actual: 7.3%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 128’30
1st Peak @ 128’13 – 0830 (0 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 129’30 – 0832 (2 min)
49 ticks

Pullback to 129’16 – 0832 (2 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Mixed report on the initial read caused indecision after the ADP report the previous day was also indecisive due to a matching result. Slightly weak report showing 9K less jobs created than expected, a very large previous downward revision of 58K jobs, and a 0.1% drop in the unemployment U-3 rate due to less people looking for work. Due to the close proximity of the jobs result to the forecast, this gave the rate more attention to cause a drop in the bonds initially, then when the full report was felt it turned around to rally strongly. The market moved 1 sec early at 08:29:59. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 128’26 with no slippage, then seen your stop fill with about 2-3 ticks of slippage at 129’01. Even though it was a loss, the low slippage and the stop holding make this a safe report. The drop nearly reached the LOD while crossing the S1 Mid Pivot, then the rally crossed all 3 major SMAs and reached the R2 Mid Pivot. After the top, it fell for 14 ticks on the :32 bar. I managed to get 8 ticks on the reversal with a short entry just above the R2 Mid Pivot, as I counted on the initial test of that level to be rejected by at least 10 ticks. After that it rallied again to gain another tick about 20 min later, then fell to the R1 Mid Pivot.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 8.2.2013

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Oct 012013

8/2/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 184K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 162K
Previous Revision: -7K to 188K
Rate Forecast: 7.5%
Rate Actual: 7.4%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 132’00
1st Peak @ 133’17 – 0832 (2 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 132’26 – 0834 (4 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 133’21 – 0850 (20 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 133’03 – 0924 (54 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Fairly weak report showing 22K less jobs created than expected, a moderate previous downward revision of 7K jobs, and a 0.1% drop in the unemployment U-3 rate due to less people looking for work. This caused the bonds to rally for 49 ticks on the :30 -:32 bars, crossing no SMAs and the R1 Pivot. The market moved 3 sec early at 08:29:57. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 132’05 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture up to 40 ticks as it continued to climb into the early seconds of the :32 bar. After the 1st peak, it reversed for 23 ticks in the next 2.5 bars, before rallying for a 2nd peak of only 4 more ticks in 15 min. Then it reversed for 18 ticks in the next 34 min, crossing the 50 SMA and R1 Pivot.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 7.31.2013

Advance GDP Comments Off

Oct 012013

7/31/2013 Quarterly Advance GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.1%
Actual: 1.7%
Previous Revision: -0.7% to 1.8%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 133’01
1st Peak@ 132’13 – 0831 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 133’00 – 0843 (13 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded a very weak forecast causing mild excitement. Like getting a “D” on a report card when an “F” was expected. This caused a quick and unsustainable 22 tick short spike on the :31 bar that crossed no SMAs and hit the S4 Mid Pivot then retreated strongly, leaving 9 ticks on the tail naked. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 132’24 with 6 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall 11 ticks then retreat to your fill and bob around 2-3 ticks of profit. If you had a profit target of 11 ticks or less or hit the close button quickly, you would have fared well. I had a 12 tick profit target and an auto breakeven, so I missed the exit by 1 tick, then was stopped at breakeven. After hovering around the S3 Pivot for a few min, it reversed back to 133’00 on the :43 bar for a total of 19 ticks.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 9.5.2013

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Oct 012013

9/5/2013 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 175K
Actual: 176K
Previous revision: -2K to 198K
INDECISIVE
Started @ 129’11
1st Peak @ 129’24 – 0816 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 129’00 – 0816 (1 min)
-24 ticks

Settled @ 129’15 – 0816 (1 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report was nearly a perfect match to the forecast, almost like lightning striking in the same place twice. We have not had another report result within 10K of the forecast in multiple years. This served to cause a natural indecisive reaction as a report with so much magnitude 2 weeks before a monumental FED decision. It rallied long to hit the S1 Mid Pivot, then immediately crashed 24 ticks to just above the S3 Mid Pivot, then pulled back to settle 4 ticks above the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 129’17 with 3 ticks of slippage, then the stop would have filled at about 129’09 with 3 ticks of slippage for an 8 tick loss. After the wild :16 bar, it rallied up to 129’18 at the S1 Pivot, then fell to chop sideways inside of the SMAs leading up to the unemployment claims at 0830. This reaction does not raise the Risk rating of this report by any means due to the cause of the indecision, and the very low probability of the situation repeating.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 7.31.2013

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Oct 012013

7/31/2013 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 179K
Actual: 200K
Previous revision: +10K to 198K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 133’18
1st Peak @ 133’03 – 0818 (3 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’28 – 0823 (8 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 133’02 – 0830 (15 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report was moderately positive showing 21k more jobs created than expected along with a moderate upward previous revision of 10k jobs causing a 15 tick short spike on 3 bars that crossed no SMAs and nearly reached the S3 Mid Pivot on its path. It sustained the initial drop of the :16 bar and eked out a few more ticks on the :17 and :18 bars. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 133’12 with 3 ticks of slippage, then look to exit at about 133’06 for 6 ticks where it hovered as the :16 bar was expiring. Due to the tame movement and reluctance to reverse I hung around for a couple more ticks and exited at 133’04 on the :17 bar. After trading sideways for 4 min, it fell for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks on the :23 bar. Then it reversed for 6 ticks up until the Advance GDP report at 0830.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 9.3.2013

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Sep 302013

9/3/2013 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 54.2
Actual: 55.7
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 130’16
1st Peak @ 129’22 – 1004 (4 min)
26 ticks

Final Peak @ 129’11 – 1100 (60 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 129’23 – 1126 (86 min)
12 ticks

Extended Reversal to 130’13 – 1403 (243 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Report came in stronger than the forecast with 1.5 pts offset, and above 55.0. We saw a drop of 26 ticks on 4 bars that crossed the 100/50 SMAs and the S4 Pivot as the market was already in a longer term down trend. It briefly hesitated at the S4 pivot at 130’00, but did not try to retreat, so it would be safe to stay in. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 130’13 with no slippage. If you did not set a profit target, look to exit at about 129’29 for 16 ticks just below the S4 Pivot and after it gave the first sign of starting to reverse. This was a large reaction, but it was slow developing and sustained as opposed to last month. These reactions are not as safe to trade reversals as the reaction is not immediate leaving a sentiment of correction waiting. After loitering in the 129’24 area for several min, it eventually geared up for a 2nd peak for 11 more ticks in the next 45 min. Then it reversed for 12 ticks in 26 min, back to the 100 SMA, and another 22 ticks in the next 2.5 hrs to the S3 Mid Pivot.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 8.1.2013

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Sep 302013

8/1/2013 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 52.1
Actual: 55.4
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 133’06
1st Peak @ 132’18 – 1001 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 132’31 – 1005 (5 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report came in much stronger than the forecast with 3.3 pts offset, and above 55.0. For the 2nd month, we shifted over to the ZB for this report due to the impact of US news. We saw a drop of 20 ticks that crossed no SMAs and the S1 Pivot as the market was already in a down trend. It bottomed immediately, then hovered within 5 ticks of the low for about 10 sec before backing off even more. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 133’01 with 1 tick of slippage. If you did not set a profit target, look to exit at about 132’21 after the hovering to capture up to 12 ticks. The large reaction was unsustainable, and left a large naked tail of 8 ticks. Then the reversal was able to reclaim a total of 13 ticks back to the S1 Pivot on the :05 bar. After that it traded sideways below the S1 Pivot and eventually fell again.

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