US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 07.17.2013

Beige Book Comments Off

Aug 092013

7/17/2013 FED Beige Book (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION…NO FILL
Started @ 135’11
1st Peak @ 135’07 – 1402 (2 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 135’19 – 1451 (51 min)
12 ticks

Notes: The Federal Reserve said today that economic activity maintained a modest to moderate pace since the previous report across most Federal Reserve districts, bolstered by industries from housing to manufacturing. The DX was fairly flat until 1430 when it rallied mildly. This resulted in an initial dull 4 tick short move followed by a 12 tick reversal in the next 49 min. With JOBB, it would not have triggered the short entry on your bracket until about 45 sec into the :31 bar, so this would be reason to cancel the order. If you did not cancel and were waiting on a delayed reaction, move the stop loss in to -1 or -2 ticks, which would have been taken out on the next few bars. The initial spike found support on the R1 Pivot and the reversal crossed all 3 major SMAs and the R2 Pivot.

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 06.05.2013

Beige Book Comments Off

Aug 092013

6/5/2013 FED Beige Book (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 93.97
1st Peak @ 94.05 – 1401 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 83.90 – 1403 (3 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.18 – 1410 (10 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 93.58 – 1426 (26 min)
60 ticks

Notes: The Federal Reserve said today that economic activity increased at a modest to moderate pace since the previous report across all Federal Reserve Districts except the Dallas District, which reported strong economic growth. The manufacturing sector expanded in most Districts since the previous Beige Book. Most districts noted slight to moderate gains in consumer spending. The DX was fairly flat until 1415 when it rallied mildly. This resulted in initial tame indecision, followed by a long move, then a short move corresponding to the rally on the DX. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 94.04 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it back off. Given that the move is often slow and takes several bars, I waited it out and left the stop loss at the 200 SMA as a good area of support and took a 10 tick loss. A 15 tick stop loss would have ridden out the heat and given you a handful of ticks 5-10 min later as it hit its 2nd peak. Then the reversal yielded 60 ticks in about 15 min.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 07.25.2013

7y Bond Auction Comments Off

Aug 092013

07/25/2013 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 1.93/2.6
Actual: 2.03/2.5
DULL REACTION
Started @ 134’03 (1301)
1st Peak @ 134’05 – 1302 (1 min)
2 ticks

Reversal to 134’01 – 1302 (1 min)
4 ticks

2nd Peak @ 134’08 – 1305 (4 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 133’30 – 1315 (14 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 1.46 is the lowest in years, indicating high demand for the bonds with the dollar and equities unattractive. There was no impulse by 13:01:45, so we should have cancelled the order. If not, with JOBB, you would have filled long at 134’05, then seen it back off and eventually fall to the default 4 tick stop loss. A narrower stop would have reduced the loss, while a 5 tick stop loss and patience would have allowed an exit at or above break even 2 min later. After the last 2 months have caused a healthy reaction on this report, this was a bit of a disappointment. We will continue to watch this report in August.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 06.27.2013

7y Bond Auction Comments Off

Aug 092013

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 05.30.2013

7y Bond Auction Comments Off

Aug 092013

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 7.5.2013

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jul 212013

7/5/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 163K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 195K
Previous Revision: +20K to 195K
Rate Forecast: 7.5%
Rate Actual: 7.6%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 134’26
1st Peak @ 133’10 – 0831 (1 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 133’29 – 0833 (3 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’20 – 0915 (45 min)
70 ticks

Reversal to 133’04 – 0939 (69 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Strong positive report showing 32K more jobs created than expected, a moderate previous upward revision of 20K jobs, and a 0.1% increase in the unemployment U-3 rate due to more people looking for work. This caused the bonds to selloff for 48 ticks on the :30 bar, eclipsing all 3 major SMAs near the origin and the S3 Pivot near the bottom, leaving 6 ticks on the tail naked. With JOBB, you would not have filled due to excess slippage with the thin trading on the 4th of July weekend as slippage exceeded 8 ticks. The 8 tick limit is a restriction from the CME, but we will have a workaround for the next report. After the 1st peak, it reversed for 19 ticks in the next 2 bars, before falling for a 2nd peak of 22 more ticks in 45 min, eclipsing the S4 Pivot. Then it reversed for 16 ticks in the next 24 min and traded between the S4 Mid Pivot and LOD for the rest of the session.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 7.3.2013

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 212013

7/3/2013 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 54.3
Actual: 52.2
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 135’24
1st Peak @ 135’30 – 1001 (1 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 136’06 – 1025 (25 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 135’22 – 1136 (96 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Moderately negative report fell short of the forecast by 2.1 points. This caused a long spike of only 6 ticks on the :01 bar as it crossed the 100/50 SMAs and the PP Pivot near the peak. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 135’27 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it peak quickly, then retreat and hover near your fill point. With the PP Pivot hanging out at 135’29, that would be a safe place to put the profit target. Move the stop loss up to 135’35, just below the S1 Mid Pivot. Then the target would have filled on the :02 bar for 2 ticks. After that it continued to struggle with the PP Pivot for another 5 min, then eventually broke long for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks in 25 min, eclipsing the 200 SMA and reaching the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed for 16 ticks in the next 70 min as it hit the LOD.

CL 03-13 (1 Min) 2.4.2013

Factory Orders Comments Off

Dec 212013

2/4/2013 Monthly Factory Orders (1000 EST)
Forecast: 2.3%
Actual: 1.8%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to -0.3%
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 96.42
1st Peak @ 96.39 – 1001 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 96.49 – 1002 (2 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Moderately negative report disappointed, but was still stronger than the long term average. This caused a dull reaction with no impetus to go either way. If you followed the JOBB instructions, you should have cancelled the order after it did not fill in 15 sec. The :01 bar only fell 3 ticks, then the :02 bar rose 10 ticks. The report was also caught in the middle of a bullish correction and was unable to buck the larger trend much.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 7.1.2013

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 212013

7/1/2013 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 50.6
Actual: 50.9
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 135’12
1st Peak @ 135’06 – 1001 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 135’22 – 1006 (6 min)
16 ticks

Extended Reversal to 135’28 – 1103 (63 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with only 0.3 pts offset, but above 50.0. We shifted over to the ZB for this report due to the impact of US news on the bonds. We saw a drop of only 6 ticks that crossed the 100/200 SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot. Then after 30 sec, it reversed and continued on the next 5 bars for 16 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 135’09 with no slippage. You would have seen it hover between your fill point and 135’06. I would move the stop loss to 135’10 or 11 on the long side of the 200 SMA and place a profit target at 135’07, just beneath the S1 Mid Pivot. If the target was in place before 21 seconds elapsed, it would have filled for 2 ticks, otherwise you would have seen your stop fill for -1 or -2 ticks. Due to the matching news, the DX initially fell, then rallied, causing the ZB to do the opposite. After the initial reversal of 16 ticks in 6 min, it continued higher for an extended reversal of 22 ticks on the 1103 bar at the R1 Mid Pivot.

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 7.3.2013

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Jul 212013

7/3/2013 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 161K
Actual: 188K
Previous revision: -1K to 134K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010062
1st Peak @ 0.010030 – 0816 (1 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 0.010048 – 0817 (2 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010026 – 0833 (18 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 0.010045 – 0849 (34 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report was moderately positive showing 27k more jobs created than expected along with a negligible downward revision of 1k jobs causing an average 32 tick short spike on the :16 bar that crossed the 100/200 SMAs and R2 Pivot on its path. It left 6 ticks on the wick naked as the reversal from the 1st peak low began late on the :16 bar and culminated on the :17 bar for 18 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.010054 with 4 ticks of slippage, then look to exit just below the 200 SMA at about 0.010037 when it was hovering for about 17 ticks. After the :17 bar, it fell and chopped sideways mostly below the 200 SMA and eventually achieved a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks on the :33 bar. Then it reversed slowly for 19 ticks in about 16 min back to the 50 SMA.

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