US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 5.1.2013

FOMC Statement Comments Off

May 092013

5/1/2013 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 90.69 (1400)
1st Peak @ 90.92 – 1404 (4 min)
23 ticks

Final Peak @ 91.22 – 1453 (53 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 90.90 – 1553 (113 min)
32 ticks

Notes: Report released on time, as the FED chose to continue the existing open ended QE3 policy despite seeing certain indications of improving economic conditions. This caused an initially choppy reaction which developed into an upward fan as the DX fell. We saw 53 ticks gained in a little less than an hour and into the pit close. Then it took another hour to slowly reverse for 32 ticks having to fight through the 50 and 100 SMAs. After seeing the news and the DX reaction in the first few minutes, it would be safe to buy the dips, when it dropped below the 100 SMA in the first 10 min, then stay in until the 13 crosses the 20 SMA.

ZB 06-13 (1 Min) 4.26.2013

Advance GDP Comments Off

May 092013

4/26/2013 Quarterly Advance GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 3.1%
Actual: 2.5%
Previous Revision: +0.5% to 0.4%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 148’15
1st Peak@ 148’23 – 0831 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 148’16 – 0845 (15 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of the forecast causing a long and unsustainable spike of 8 ticks on the :31 bar that crossed no SMAs but the R3 and R4 Mid Pivots as it was already trending higher. It eclipsed the R4 Mid Pivot and fell, leaving 5 ticks of the wick naked. Our Stop loss was also rejected as the CME now disallows stop limit orders with the default setting of 20 ticks for ATM strategies in Ninja. Bizarre reaction overall as we had a reasonably solid forecast and a decent offset for a disappointment. A healthy economy should have a minimum of 3-3.5% and a recovering economy should be 4-5% or more. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 148’21 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it retreat to bob between 2-4 ticks in the red. I manually restored the stop at 5 ticks and patiently waited to exit with a 2 tick loss, but it eventually achieved a double top 15 min after the news to allow for 1-2 ticks of profit max. The reversal yielded 7 ticks in about an hour as it retreated to near the origin. Then it traded sideways.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 3.20.2013

FOMC Statement Comments Off

May 092013

3/20/2013 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 92.99 (1400)
1st Peak @ 93.34 – 1403 (3 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 93.03 – 1411 (11 min)
31 ticks

2nd Peak @ 93.60 – 1425 (25 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 93.43 – 1500 (60 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report released on time, as the FED chose to continue the existing open ended QE3 policy despite seeing certain indications of improving economic conditions. This caused both the CL to trend long and the DX to short initially, then recover and short again. We saw a 35 tick spike over 3 bars, then a reversal of 31 ticks in the next 7 min. Then it geared up for a larger 2nd peak of 61 ticks, riding the 13 SMA as support and peaking 5 min before the pit close. After seeing the news and the DX reaction in the first few minutes, it would be safe to buy the dips, when it dropped below the 50 SMA and hit the PP Pivot at 93.07 on the :10 – :11 bars. Stay in until you have a bar settle below the 20 with the 13 crossing the 20 and/or the MACD cross. Both happened at about 1445, giving you an exit with at least 40 ticks of profit. As the pit closed, the final reversal was small and slow developing for only 17 ticks in 35 min.

CL 03-13 (1 Min) 1.30.2013

FOMC Statement Comments Off

May 092013

1/30/2013 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1415 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 97.82 (1415)
1st Peak @ 97.67 – 1417 (2 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 97.92 – 1418 (3 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Report released on time, as the FED chose to continue the existing open ended QE3 policy despite seeing certain indications of improving economic conditions. This caused both the CL and the DX to seesaw changing sentiment every minute such that it went short 15 ticks, then long 25, then repeated the trend. Over the longer term it trended mildly higher using the 50 SMA as support and eventually the R1 Pivot as resistance. After hearing the news and seeing the reaction in the first 5 minutes, it would be safe to buy the dips, using the major SMA cluster at 97.67 as your stop loss area. Sell the rips when it moves about 25 ticks away from the 50 SMA. You could have done that once or twice in the hour following the report.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 4.17.2013

Beige Book Comments Off

May 092013

4/17/2013 FED Beige Book (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 86.67
1st Peak @ 86.82 – 1401 (1 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.96 – 1407 (7 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 86.62 – 1430 (30 min)
34 ticks

Notes: The Federal Reserve said today that the U.S. economy overall was expanding at a moderate pace last month, specifically noting increases in manufacturing activity. The DX slowly trended upward, and then accelerated after 1430, so it had little influence on the CL. This resulted in a spike of 15 ticks that was unsustainable on the :01 bar, but was matched on the :02/:03 bars as it eclipsed the 200 SMA. Then after 5 min, it was able to clear the 200 SMA and achieve a 2nd peak of 29 ticks on the :07 bar, but that was it. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 86.74 with 2 ticks of slippage, then wait patiently for a move after a few min. Since the oil inventory report had caused a large selloff that was correcting, the market is slightly bullish in the very short term. Use that to your advantage when patiently waiting for penetration of the 200 SMA. With little movement on the DX, you could exit after the :07 bar, or after 13 crossed the 20 SMA at about 1422 with 10 – 20 ticks. After that, the reversal crossed the 200 SMA and reclaimed 34 ticks a few min later.

CL 04-13 (1 Min) 3.6.2013

Beige Book Comments Off

May 092013

3/6/2013 FED Beige Book (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 89.92
1st Peak @ 90.09 – 1403 (3 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 89.94 – 1406 (6 min)
15 ticks

Final Peak @ 90.50 – 1450 (50 min)
58 ticks

Reversal to 90.37 – 1529 (89 min)
13 ticks

Notes: The Federal Reserve said today that the U.S. economy was expanding “modestly” last month, supported by improvements in housing and auto sales, even as the labor market showed little change. The DX stayed mostly flat after the report, but the CL rallied. This resulted in a spike of 17 ticks in 3 bars, followed by a small reversal. Then it turned into an upward fan riding the 13 elevator up to 90.50 about 20 min after the pit closed. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 89.98 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit quickly for about 10 ticks. If you chose to stay in for the longer term, stay in until the 13 crosses the 20 or the MACD crosses and trail a stop a few ticks below the 20 SMA. Look to exit at about 90.48 when the pit closed and it traded sideways for several minutes for about 50 ticks. After that, the reversal was only able to garner 13 ticks in about 40 min due to the significant drop in volume.

CL 04-13 (1 Min) 2.27.2013

FED Testimony Comments Off

May 092013

2/27/2013 FED Testimony (1000 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 92.50
1st Peak @ 92.58 – 1001 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reverse to 92.45 – 1004 (4 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 92.88 – 1013 (13 min)
38 ticks

Reverse to 92.70 – 1020 (20 min)
18 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee (day 2). Do not trade day 2 with JOBB. In this case, most of the air was let out of the balloon on the previous day testimony before the Senate Banking Committee and nothing surprising transpired in the Q & A. This was seen as an initial long dull reaction, then a slightly larger 2nd peak of 38 ticks in 13 min to cross the 200 SMA. Then we saw a reversal of 18 ticks before it chopped sideways approaching the oil inventory report at 10:30.

CL 04-13 (1 Min) 2.26.2013

FED Testimony Comments Off

May 092013

2/26/2013 FED Testimony (1000 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 93.44 (1003)
1st Peak @ 93.07 – 1008 (5 min)
37 ticks

Final Peak @ 92.17 – 1144 (101 min)
127 ticks

Reverse to 92.75 – 1241 (158 min)
58 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the Senate Banking Committee. Chmn Bernanke defended the FED’s policy of open ended asset purchases stating that the risk of inflation is well contained and the benefit far outweighs any risks to the economy. The markets responded positively with the dollar rallying causing the CL to fall. The long reaction from 10:00 to 10:03 was due to a strong Consumer Confidence report. If that report had not been there, the market would have traded sideways until 10:03. If you noticed the dollar rally and shorted the CL, the first exit point would have been the 200 SMA at 10:34. The reversal claimed 58 ticks in about 1 hr, eclipsing the 200 SMA.

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 5.1.2013

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 082013

5/1/2013 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 51.0
Actual: 50.7
Previous revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 90.96
1st Peak @ 91.06 – 1001 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 90.87 – 1001 (1 min)
-19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 91.26 – 1005 (5 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 90.83 – 1018 (18 min)
43 ticks

Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast causing a small but indecisive :01 bar as it spiked long for 10 ticks, then reversed for 19 ticks and settled near where it started. After the :01 bar, it rallied for 20 more ticks up to the 100 SMA in 4 more min. Then it reversed for 43 ticks in 13 min down to the low established a few min before the report. With JOBB, you would have filled long with 1 tick of slippage at 91.02. You would have seen it hover between 90.96 and 91.06 in the first 20 sec, before it would have taken out your stop loss if left alone at 90.90. You could play this 2 ways…1) move the stop up and look to close out near Breakeven after the observed hovering, or 2) Note the low at 90.82 that held as a level of support a few min before the report and move the stop to 90.81 (21 ticks risk), then wait for about 10 ticks on the following bars as this report reaction always pans out slowly and there is no resistance barrier until the 100 SMA. You could exit around 92.12 to 91.17 on the :03 bar.

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 4.24.2013

Durable Goods Comments Off

May 082013

4/24/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: -1.4%
Previous revision: -0.2% to -0.7%
Regular Forecast: -2.9%
Regular Actual: -5.7%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 5.6%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 89.46
1st Peak @ 89.32 – 0832 (2 min)
14 ticks

Reverse to 89.63 – 0849 (19 min)
31 ticks

Extended Reversal to 89.92 – 0918 (48 min)
60 ticks

Notes: Report came in solidly bearish and disappointing overall. This caused a 14 tick short move that bottomed on the :32 bar to extend the LOD by 11 ticks. Then after a double bottom, it reversed for 31 ticks in about 10 min to the R1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 89.40 with 1 tick of slippage. Look to exit at the end of the :31 bar for about 5 ticks, or place your exit a few ticks lower. After the reversal, it attempted a 2nd Peak, but ran out of gas as the pit opened. Then it reversed long strongly for 60 ticks in about 20 min.

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