-111512.jpg "Click to enlarge")
11/15/2012 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 1.1
Actual: -10.7
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 86.67
1st Peak @ 86.29 – 0502 (2 min)
38 ticks
Reversal to 86.77 – 0508 (8 min)
48 ticks
2nd Peak @ 86.20 – 0522 (22 min)
47 ticks
Reversal to 86.59 – 0552 (52 min)
39 ticks
Notes: Report strongly fell short of the forecast, causing a short move of 38 ticks over 2 bars. With the short move in the previous 30 min hitting the LOD, then seeing a gap close correction to the 13 SMA prior to the report, the bearish report was prime to drop. It tested the PP Pivot and LOD on the :31 bar, and dipped about 12 ticks below it on the :32 bar. Unable to sustain the drop, it reversed strongly for 48 ticks 6 min later, then dove for a 2nd peak of 47 ticks. With JOBB, your order would have filled at 86.59 with 2 ticks of slippage. I would place a buy limit order between the LOD and the PP Pivot at about 86.43 which would have yielded 16 ticks. The final reversal yielded 39 ticks, peaking just before the Oil inventory report.