Dec 032012
 


CL 01 13 (1 Min) 12.03.12

12/3/2012 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 51.5
Actual: 49.5
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 90.08
1st Peak @ 89.60 – 0504 (4 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 90.06 – 0531 (31 min)
46 ticks

2nd Peak @ 88.96 – 0611 (71 min)
112 ticks

Reversal to 89.30 – 0631 (91 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Report fell well short of the forecast and fell below 50 again after 2 months of a small recovery. This caused a healthy selloff of 48 ticks in 4 bars that crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs and bottomed at the R2 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short with about 3 ticks of slippage at 89.99, then depending on your level of patience had an opportunity to close out with up to 35 ticks as it eclipsed the R2 Pivot at 89.65. I managed 17 ticks, placing my exit at 89.82 at the 100 SMA. Please see the video on this report for many lessons. The market was overbought in the short term due to the rally of about 150 ticks in the previous 3 hrs. It backed off of the peak before the report, correcting to the 100 SMA, but then rebounded to 20 ticks off of the peak. This enhanced the selling pressure. The reversal was able to reclaim nearly all of the 1st peak in 31 min, crossing the 100 and 50 SMAs for a double top at 90.06. Then it fell for a much larger 2nd peak of 112 ticks to 88.96 in the span of about 30 min, crossing the 200 SMA and the R1 Pivot with ease. After the 2nd peak, it reversed for 34 ticks, to nick the R1 Pivot, then traded sideways.