CL 01 13 (1 Min) 12.07.12

12/7/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 89K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 146K
Previous Revision: -33K to 138K
Rate Forecast: 7.9%
Rate Actual: 7.7%
SPIKE/REVERSE
(CL)
Started @ 86.28
1st Peak @ 86.89 – 0332 (2 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 86.07 – 0422 (52 min)
82 ticks

12/7/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 89K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 146K
Previous Revision: -33K to 138K
Rate Forecast: 7.9%
Rate Actual: 7.7%
SPIKE/REVERSE
(TF)
Started @ 819.7
1st Peak @ 827.0 – 0333 (3 min)
73 ticks

Reversal to 819.1 – 0501 (91 min)
79 ticks

12/7/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 89K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 146K
Previous Revision: -33K to 138K
Rate Forecast: 7.9%
Rate Actual: 7.7%
SPIKE/REVERSE
(ZB)
Started @ 150’19
1st Peak @ 149’16 – 0332 (2 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 149’25 – 0334 (4 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 149’11 – 0344 (14 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 149’28 – 0407 (37 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Overall positive report with almost 60K jobs more created than anticipated and a drop in the U-3 rate of 0.2%. This drove the markets to bullish reaction with CL and TF rallying, and the ZB falling. Both the CL and the TF peaked on after the :01 bar for 60-70+ ticks, double topped a few min later, then reversed for about 10-20% more ticks than the spike 50-90 min later. As they were already trading above the major SMAs, the CL only crossed the PP Pivot and the HOD, and the TF crossed the PP, R1 Pivots, the HOD, then nearly reached the R2 Pivot. Once again, the ZB outperformed both of the other indexes, falling 35 ticks on the first 2 bars (equivalent of about 105 ticks on the CL or TF), crossing all 3 major SMAs near the origin, and the PP – S3 Pivots. I traded the ZB with a 3 tick bracket, filling short at 150’12 with 4 ticks of slippage, then got out early and conservatively with 14 ticks at 149’30. After peaking, it reversed for 9 ticks, then fell for 14 ticks to a 2nd peak at 149’11. The final reversal reclaimed 17 ticks to eclipse the 50 SMA about 35 min after the report.

It is likely the slippage on the CL and TF would have exceeded 10 ticks. I have a few anecdotes from those who traded those and made 15-25 ticks. With the slippage less, and the profit potential much larger on the ZB, that is the recommended index for now.