-030912.jpg "Click to enlarge")
3/9/2011 Monthly Trade Balance (0330 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: -48.9B
Actual: -52.6B
Previous Revision: -1.6B to -50.4BINDECISIVE
Started @ 107.00
1st Peak @ 107.42 / Reversal to 106.90 – 0331 (1 min)
42 ticks / -10 ticks
Reversal to 106.13 – 0406 (36 min)
129 ticks (from peak)
Notes: Unique situation with 6 reports released at the same time. The Unemployment report basically matched the forecast, by modest exceeding the forecast of jobs created, but matching the rate. Normally this report would overshadow all others, but the trade balance report had the worst deficit in 4 yrs giving it more attention and causing the reversal and drop. With JOBB, you would have gotten in long at 107.14 after slippage, then after a rapid spike crossing the R1 line, it retreated to seesaw and hover at the R1 for 5 sec. That is the place to get out before the reversal would have taken away your profit and eventually hit your stop loss without action 52 seconds into the 0331 candle. The reversal spent 15 minutes tethered to the FIST with all SMAs before falling over 100 ticks just after the CL open.