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4/4/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.1M
Actual: 9.0M
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 102.80
1st Peak @ 101.87 – 0432 (2 min)
93 ticks
2nd Peak @ 101.08 – 0521 (51 min)
172 ticks
Reversal to 101.92 – 0545 (75 min)
84 ticks
Notes: Very large gain in supply and offset of the forecast caused a big downward spike that evolved into a downward fan for almost an hour. Initial spike crossed the 100 SMA at the origin then encountered no support buffers achieving a peak of 93 ticks on the :32 candle. After 2 attempts to reverse with the inability to cross the 13 or get the MACD to cross, it would be okay to enter a sell on the :49 candle when it dropped and ride the wave until the big red candle at 0503. It would be safe to buy at the S3 line to play the reversal and ride it until the 13 crossed the 20 and the MACD crossed around 0555.