3/6/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 0.9M
Actual: 3.8M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 90.20
1st Peak @ 89.74 – 1031 (1 min)
46 ticks
Reversal to 90.04 – 1032 (2 min)
30 ticks
2nd Peak @ 89.55 – 1059 (29 min)
65 ticks
Reversal to 90.23 – 1139 (69 min)
68 ticks
Notes: Large gain in crude inventories, while gasoline saw a small drop and distillates saw a larger drop. This prompted a healthy short move of 46 ticks that crossed no SMAs or Pivots, but used the resistance of the 50 SMA and S1 Pivot to aid in the short launch. The large gain in crude offset the healthy drop in distillates but the oil gain won the battle causing a short move. Still the distillate reading caused a decent pullback of 30 ticks leaving much of the :31 bar naked and peaking on the :32 bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 90.10 with no slippage. Then you would have seen it dive to 89.74 and quickly retreat to bob between 89.78 and 89.94. I would set an exit in the 89.82 area and look to exit with about 25-30 ticks. It achieved a 2nd peak of 19 more ticks just before the top of the hour as it eclipsed the S2 Pivot, then reversed for 68 ticks in 40 min crossing the 50/100 SMAs then eclipsing the 200 SMA and S1 Pivot.