Jul 172012

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 06.17.12

7/17/2012 FED Testimony (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
Started @ 89.21
1st Peak @ 88.92 – 0401 (1 min)
29 ticks

Final Peak @ 87.71 – 0443 (43 min)
150 ticks

Reverse to 89.76 – 0731 (211 min)
205 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the Senate Banking Committee. Chmn Bernanke initially reported that the FED would not interject any new stimulus, the economy is in a poor state of health, and nothing the FED could do would help the situation. As the markets had already priced in some stimulus action from the FED, the dollar rallied strongly causing the oil to crash. Then at :45 min after the report, during the Q & A session, Bernanke stated that stimulus was not off the table and may be implemented in the near future. This caused the Hopium to return, reversing the trend of the first 45 min to cause the dollar to crasch and oil to rally for the next 2 hrs and 45 min. With JOBB, the first bar spike of 29 ticks would have easily generated a profit. It crossed the 200 SMA, but everything else was above the price action. If you stayed in, the next bar was unable to close above the 200 SMA, then you could exit at either the :22 area where it crossed the 20 or at the :46 bar after the sustained drop then support encountered at the 87.80 level. The reversal claimed over 200 ticks in almost 3 hrs, encountering moderate resistance at each SMA, then eventually climbing above the R1 Pivot to peak just below 90.