-080912.jpg "Click to enlarge")
8/9/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: -47.4B
Actual: -42.9B
Previous Revision: +0.7B to -48.0B
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 94.09
1st Peak @ 94.37 – 0232 (2 min)
28 ticks
Reverse to 93.95 – 0234 (4 min)
42 ticks
Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast with the narrowest deficit in 9 months, coupled with a small previous report upward revision. Unemployment claims broke at the same time yielding a moderately positive result. Reaction to all the bullish news was reasonably strong as the market spiked long for 28 ticks in 2 min. The market had been trending upward in the very short term, so all 3 major SMAs were below the action and there was no apparent cause of resistance to arrest the upward movement. Then it reversed for 42 ticks to eclipse the PP Pivot and nick the 50 SMA finding solid support there. Then it chopped sideways through the pit open 30 min later. This report was not recommended for trading due to the combined medium impact reports breaking at the same time.