-091112.jpg "Click to enlarge")
9/11/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: -44.2B
Actual: -42.0B
Previous Revision: +1.0B to -41.9B
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 96.69
1st Peak @ 96.51 – 0232 (2 min)
18 ticks
Reversal to 96.79 – 0234 (4 min)
28 ticks
Notes: Report mildly exceeded the forecast with the narrowest deficit in over a year, coupled with a moderate previous report upward revision. The market had been trading sideways and seesawing on either side of the all 3 major SMAs for several hours. The short move was due to the rallying of the dollar, with the support found close to the same level that was tested 3 times earlier in the last 2 hrs. The down spike also crossed all 3 major SMAs then the reversal recovered more than he drop to hit resistance near the previous high 25 min earlier. With JOBB you would not have seen any movement until about 15 sec after the report was released. This is cause to cancel the order in lieu of a possible dull reaction. If you did not, you would have filled short at 96.62 with no slippage, just above the 200 SMA. Knowing that it did drop lower earlier and it only gave you a few ticks so far, I would try to eke out 5-7 ticks and move my stop loss to the 50 SMA. With that strategy you would get out with a handful of ticks.