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10/4/2012 Monthly Factory Orders (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: -6.0%
Actual: -5.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSAL
Started @ 88.98
Peak @ 88.87 – 0402 (2 min)
11 ticks
Reversal to 89.43 – 0419 (19 min)
56 ticks
Notes: Odd but very negative report overall despite a reading better than the forecast. This caused the market to short 11 ticks crossing the PP Pivot, 100 and 50 SMAs, then rebound into a much larger reversal in the following 17 min. Normally the forecast and reading of this report is within the range of +/- 1.5%. The forecast of -6.0% was very abnormal. Even with a better result, the big picture is still very dismal. The large reversal long was due to the dollar dropping significantly on the news. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 88.91, then had an opportunity to close out at break even or with a handful of ticks if you waited on the :02 bar. The reversal was aided by the strong support of all the SMAs and the PP near or below the origin.