-101112.jpg "Click to enlarge")
10/11/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0500 HI time / 1100 EDT)
Forecast: 1.3M
Actual: 1.7M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 92.48
1st Peak @ 92.64 – 0501 (1 min)
16 ticks
Reversal to 92.30 – 0506 (6 min)
34 ticks
2nd Peak @ 92.73 – 0516 (16 min)
25 ticks
Reversal to 91.79 – 0552 (52 min)
94 ticks
Notes: Moderate gain in inventory when a lesser gain was expected caused a relatively dull reaction for a long spike of 16 ticks in 1 min. With a result not much different than the forecast the reaction was trapped between the 50 SMA on the high side and the 100/200 SMAs on the low side. After the initial spike, we saw alternating bars with tails and wicks test these areas. The 2nd peak was briefly able to achieve 25 ticks, then the reversal eventually fell for 94 ticks. With JOBB, you would not have filled until 23 sec into the :01 bar, so you should have cancelled the order. If you stayed the course, you would have filled long at 92.58 with no slippage, then had a brief opportunity to close out with about 2-3 ticks as it hovered for about 10 sec above the 50 SMA before retreating.