Nov 022012

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 11.02.12

11/2/2012 Monthly Factory Orders (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 4.7%
Actual: 4.8%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to -5.1%
Started @ 86.10
1st Peak @ 86.00 – 0401 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 85.53 – 0425 (25 min)
57 ticks

Reversal to 85.81 – 0432 (32 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report which was positive could not overcome the overall bearish sentiment prevailing from the Non-Farm Employment report from 90 min earlier. This caused the market to short 10 ticks, then trade sideways before heading downward into a much larger 2nd peak of 57 ticks in the following 25 min to hit the S2 Pivot. Normally the forecast and reading of this report is within the range of +/- 1.5%. The forecast of 4.7% was very abnormal and follows the previous month of -5.2%. The large 2nd peak was probably due to the Non Farm longterm effect, but coincided with this report. The reversal long was a correction back to the 50 SMA news after bouncing up from the S2 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 86.03 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to close out at break even or with a handful of ticks, or if you were patient and waited on the :06 bar, you would have had up to 20 ticks.