May 092013

ZB 06-13 (1 Min)  4_26_2013

4/26/2013 Quarterly Advance GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast:  3.1%
Actual: 2.5%
Previous Revision: +0.5% to 0.4%
Started @ 148’15
1st Peak@ 148’23 – 0831 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 148’16 – 0845 (15 min)
7 ticks

Notes:  Report strongly fell short of the forecast causing a long and unsustainable spike of 8 ticks on the :31 bar that crossed no SMAs but the R3 and R4 Mid Pivots as it was already trending higher.  It eclipsed the R4 Mid Pivot and fell, leaving 5 ticks of the wick naked.  Our Stop loss was also rejected as the CME now disallows stop limit orders with the default setting of 20 ticks for ATM strategies in Ninja. Bizarre reaction overall as we had a reasonably solid forecast and a decent offset for a disappointment.  A healthy economy should have a minimum of 3-3.5% and a recovering economy should be 4-5% or more.  With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 148’21 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it retreat to bob between 2-4 ticks in the red.  I manually restored the stop at 5 ticks and patiently waited to exit with a 2 tick loss, but it eventually achieved a double top 15 min after the news to allow for 1-2 ticks of profit max.  The reversal yielded 7 ticks in about an hour as it retreated to near the origin.  Then it traded sideways.