-091212.jpg "Click to enlarge")
9/12/2012 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 776.25 – 0229
1st Peak @ 785.00 – 0230 (1 min)
35 ticks
Reversal to 764.50 – 0231 (2 min)
82 ticks
Pullback to 784.00 – 0231 (2 min)
31 ticks
Reversal to 759.25 – 0243 (13 min)
99 ticks
Pullback to 773.25 – 0255 (25 min)
56 ticks
Notes: Report Reaction caused an indecisive and volatile reaction with large tick swings. Initially spiked long for 35 ticks, then a 82 tick reversal, and continued the quick large swings for more than 50 ticks for about 25 min after the report. The 3 major SMAs were crossed several times near the origin and the swings ranged from the S3 on the lower end to the R1 on the top. Prior to the report, the market had been trading sideways, but not in a very tight range as the HOD and LOD were separated by 39 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 778.75 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it march toward your stop loss. It hovered for about 7 sec just above breakeven, so close there with 0-10 ticks before the nose dive. The S3 would have been a great buy opportunity on the :43 bar as it rebounded strongly before the SMAs had time to fan out.