May 042013

6A 03-13 (1 Min)  2_5_2013

2/5/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Forecast:  0.3%
Actual: -0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
Started @ 1.0365
1st Peak @ 1.0336 – 1931 (1 min)
29 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0314 – 2014 (44 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 1.0328 – 2022 (52 min)
14 ticks

Notes:  Report fell well short of the forecast, with a downward previous report revision of -0.1%.  This caused a 29 tick short spike in 1 min that crossed all 3 major SMAs near the origin along with the S1 Pivot, bottoming out between the S1 Pivot and the S2 Pivot.  With JOBB you would have filled short at 1.0355 with 5 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to get about 15 ticks with ease at the 1.0340 area.   Due to the disappointing news and the long term bearish sentiment on the 6AS, it continued lower for a 2nd peak of 22 more ticks 44 min later, eclipsing the S2 Pivot.  Then it reversed for 14 ticks back up to the near the 50 SMA 8 min later.  After that it fell and traded sideways just above the S2 Pivot. This report had a similar negative result (0.4 worse than expected) as the last 2 months, and had a slightly larger negative reaction.