3/4/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to -0.4%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0190
1st Peak @ 1.0212 – 1931 (1 min)
22 ticks
2nd Peak @ 1.0215 – 1937 (7 min)
25 ticks
Reversal to 1.0196 – 1948 (18 min)
19 ticks
Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast, with a moderate downward previous report revision of -0.2%. This caused a 22 tick long spike in 1 min that crossed the 50 SMA and the R1 Pivot, while using the 100 SMA as support to spring the long move. With JOBB you would have filled long at 1.0200 with 5 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to get about 8-10 ticks with ease as the :01 bar was near its peak. After a small retracement, it achieved a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks on the :07 bar. Then the long term overbought sentiment took over and the lasting rally to cause a quick and fairly sharp reversal of 19 ticks in 11 min. After that it rode the 50 slightly higher, then reversed for a decent correction.