Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4.26.2016

Quarterly CPI Comments Off

Jul 042016

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4_26_2016 6A 06-16 (1 Range) 4_26_2016

4/26/2016 Quarterly CPI / Trimmed Mean CPI (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: -0.2%
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 0.7745
1st Peak@ 0.7682 – 2130:39 (1 min)
63 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7634 – 2202 (32 min)
111 ticks

Reversal to 0.7647 – 2209 (39 min)
13 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7729 (short)
Slippage: 9 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7683 – 46 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7703 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 0.7686 (just below the S2 Pivot)

Notes: Very disappointing report caused a large short reaction. The limit order settings would have worked nicely to provide a fill after slipped on a retracement. With the strong deviation of 0.5%, nice trend trade opportunity on the 2nd peak.

6A 09-16 (1 Min) 7.3.2016

Building Approvals Comments Off

Jul 042016

6A 09-16 (1 Min) 7_3_2016

7/3/2015 Building Approvals (1930 EST)
Forecast: -3.6%
Actual: -5.2%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 3.3%
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 0.7460
1st Bar Span
0.7458 to 0.7461 – +1/-2 ticks – 2131

Notes: Cancel after 10 sec with no fill.

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 5.30.2016

Building Approvals Comments Off

Jul 042016

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 5_30_2016

5/30/2016 Building Approvals (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -3.1%
Actual: 3.0%
Previous Revision: -0.8% to 2.9%
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 0.7183
1st Peak @ 0.7206 – 2130:23 (1 min)
23 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7236 – 2212 (42 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 7231 – 2230 (60 min)
5 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7187 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 0.7205 – 18 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7197 (just above the HOD and R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Strong reaction, but not expected. The first peak matched the largest previous reaction we saw. Then it turned into an upward fan using the 13/20 SMAs as support to continue climbing for 42 min.

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 5.2.2016

Building Approvals Comments Off

Jul 042016

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 5_2_2016

5/2/2016 Building Approvals (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -1.8%
Actual: 3.7%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to 2.9%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.7658
1st Peak @ 0.7666 – 2130:05 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.7658 – 2130:34 (1 min)
8 ticks

Pullback to 0.7663 – 2132 (2 min)
5 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7661 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7665 – 4 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7669 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Quick reversal, but it pulled back to hover around the R1 Pivot for a while to offer 2 ticks on a later exit.

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4.18.2016

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

May 062016

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4_18_2016

4/18/2016 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Pt @ 0.7756
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7746 – 2130:07 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7756 – 2130:16 (1 min)
)))10 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7745 – 2131:47 (2 min)
)))11 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.7765 – 2138 (8 min)
20 ticks

Pullback to 0.7749 – 2147 (17 min)
16 ticks
Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7748 (on the R1 Pivot) / 0.7741 – No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.7764 (just below the HOD) / 0.7771 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.7748 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: 7762 – 14 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 07756 (origin) and 0.7760 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Good setup. It fell to eclipse the R1 Pivot then reverse as it filled the inner long tier. It reversed 10 ticks early allowing about 7 ticks to be captured. Then it pulled back and reversed more later allowing more profit with patience. It climbed to stall at the HOD then pulled back 16 ticks.

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4.13.2016

AUS Employment change Comments Off

May 062016

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4_13_2016 6A 06-16 (Second) 4_13_2016

4/13/2016 Monthly Unemployment Report (2130 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 18.6K
Employment Change Actual: 26.1K
Previous Revision: -1.0K to -0.7K
Rate Forecast: 5.9%
Rate Actual: 5.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.7619
1st Peak @ 0.7646 – 2130:15 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.7616 – 2030:19 (1 min)
30 ticks

Pullback to 0.7634 – 2031:03 (2 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.7614 – 2133 (3 min)
20 ticks

Pullback to 0.7628 – 2136 (6 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.7600 – 2153 (23 min)
28 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7630 (long)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7645 – 15 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7646 (in between the HOD and R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Low slippage fill, but a choppy start out of the gate for the first 9 sec before it settled down briefly just below the HOD. Look to exit there and move the stop up to above the PP Pivot. Shortly after that it collapsed back to the origin then pulled back to the OOD area. If you were not primed to exit early, the unmoved stop would have absorbed the reversal then allowed a few ticks to be captured. After that it drifted lower to extend the LOD.

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4.5.2016

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

May 012016

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4_5_2016 6A 06-16 (Second) 4_5_2016

4/5/2016 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (0030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.00% (no change)
Actual: 2.00% (no change)
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor point @ 0.7567
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7546 – 0030:40 (1 min)
)))-21 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7582 – 0031:43 (2 min)
)))36 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.7571 – 0033 (3 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.7612 – 0035 (5 min)
41 ticks

Pullback to 0.7562 – 0112 (42 min)
50 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7547 (just above the S2 Pivot) / 0.7533 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.7587 (just above the HOD) / 0.7602 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – 0.7547 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.7581 – 34 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7567 (just above the S1 Pivot) and 0.7581 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Perfect trap trade setup with the settings. An inner tier of 0.7547 or higher would have filled. If you set it for 0.7546 and saw a near miss, there was plenty of opportunity to manually move it up about 3 ticks for a fill. Then it reversed nicely to the S1 Mid Pivot and continued to step higher in the next 3 min to the R1 Pivot. After that it collapsed slowly over 37 min for 50 ticks to the 200 SMA.

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4.4.2016

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

May 012016

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4_4_2016

4/4/2016 Monthly Trade Balance (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -2.55B
Actual: -3.41B
Previous Revision: -0.22B to -3.16B
TRAP TRADE – DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7572
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7558 – 2130:31 (1 min)
)))-14 ticks

)))Hovering around 0.7559 for 2 min
————
2nd Peak @ 0.7545 – 2205 (35 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.7554 – 2216 (46 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7564 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 0.7558 (in between the LOD / S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7580 (on the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7586 (just above the HOD)

Expected Fill: 0.7564 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.7561 – 3 tick loss (likely exit 0.7559 – 5 tick loss)
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Biased result and strong bearish revision caused a decisive short spike that fell to the LOD / S2 Mid Pivot area, then got stuck. As the market volatility died, look to exit with a 3-5 tick loss. The outer tier would have been too large by a tick or so for a fill. After 25 min, it fell for a 2nd peak of 13 more ticks to the S2 Pivot before reversing 9 ticks.

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4.3.2016

Building Approvals, Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

May 012016

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4_3_2016

4/3/2016 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7648
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7630 – 2130:12 (1 min)
)))-18 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7638 – 2130:15 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7628 – 2130:48 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7634 – 2132 (32 min)
6 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7612 – 2147 (17 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 0.7623 – 2153 (23 min)
11 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7636 (just above the LOD) / 0.7627 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.7659 (in between the R1 Mid Pivot / HOD) / 0.7668 (above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.7636 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.7636 – breakeven (0.7634 likely worst case)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7642 – in the middle of the 3 major SMAs

Notes: Strongly bearish Rtl sales results overshadowed the mildly bullish Bldg Approvals to cause a decisive short spike with minimal inclination to reverse. This would have been a dull fill as it would have hovered on your fill point for about 20 sec in the middle of the :31 bar then the PP Pivot held it up for a while before it sought a 2nd peak and fell another 16 ticks.

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 3.16.2016

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Apr 052016

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 3_16_2016 6A 06-16 (Second) 3_16_2016

3/16/2016 Monthly Unemployment Report (2030 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 11.6K
Employment Change Actual: 0.3K
Previous Revision: +0.5K to -7.4K
Rate Forecast: 6.0%
Rate Actual: 5.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.7533
1st Peak @ 0.7549 – 2030:00 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.7513 – 2030:01 (1 min)
36 ticks

Pullback to 0.7556 – 2030:37 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.7536 – 2036 (6 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7588 – 2104 (34 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 0.7559 – 2134 (64 min)
29 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7547 (long)
Slippage: 6 ticks
Best Initial Exit: stopped/reversed at 0.7522 – 25 tick loss (5 slippage)…then exit at 0.7522 at breakeven
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Conflicting results caused true indecision that saw the “Reverse if Stopped” feature cause more potential for harm. It spiked long then reversed quickly to stop out and fill short. Then it hovered/chopped +/- 6 ticks of the fill so either exit or tighten the stop to the OOD area. After the initial instability it trended long.

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