6A 09-13 (1 Min) 8.4.2013

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Sep 292013
 

6A 09-13 (1 Min) 8_4_2013

8/4/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.2%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.8857
1st Peak @ 0.8883 – 2131 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.8825 – 2131 (1 min)
-58 ticks

Pullback to 0.8841 – 2132 (2 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.8823 – 2140 (10 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.4%, with a small previous report upward revision caused an indecisive reaction. Due to the large long spike of 26 ticks, then rapid drop of 58 ticks with a good bearish disparity on the result, this is cause for concern. It rallied long to cross all 3 major SMAs (falling in a down trend) and nearly reach the OOD, then fell to cross the S1 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at 0.8866 with about 5 ticks of slippage, then been stopped with a 16 tick loss including 6 ticks of slippage on the opposite entry as it was before the OCO could function. After the :01 bar, it oscillated above and below the S1 Pivot with a period of about 40 min. With June and July (not traded) also being indecisive, After this report we will be raising the risk rating to 3 for the foreseeable future.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 6.2.2013

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Jun 082013
 

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 6_2_2013

6/2/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9610
1st Peak @ 0.9635 – 2131 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 0.9602 – 2131 (1 min)
-33 ticks

Pullback to 0.9626 – 2145 (15 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 0.9589 – 2203 (33 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Report barely fell short of the forecast by 0.1%, with no previous report revision while a concurrently released report that is normally a yawner was a strong positive and caused an indecisive reaction. This caused a 25 tick long spike on the first bar in 2 sec that eclipsed the R2 Pivot and extended the HOD, then a reversal of 33 ticks that followed 3 sec later that crossed the 50/100 SMAs and nearly reached the 200 SMA. With JOBB you would have filled long at 0.9620 with 6 ticks of slippage, then been stopped with a 12 tick loss including 2 ticks of slippage. After the :01 bar, it was stuck between the 50 and 200 SMAs for 4 min, then broke out long to reach 0.9626. Then it fell 37 ticks for a stronger reversal below the OOD, before pulling back up to 0.9618 about 1 hr after the report. Then volume dried up and it traded sideways. As is typical on an indecisive report due to mixed news, it is safe to buy the dips and sell the rips. This is the first indecisive reaction on this report since OCT, but it had cause for misbehavior and remains a safe report.

6A 12-12 (1 Min) 11.4.2012

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May 042013
 

6A 12-12 (1 Min) 11_4_2012

11/4/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (1430 HI time / 1930 EDT)
Forecast:  0.4%
Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.3%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0310
1st Peak @ 1.0327 – 1431 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.0312 – 1437 (7 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0333 – 1541 (71 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 1.0320 – 1719 (169 min)
13 ticks

Notes:  Report mildly exceeded the forecast, with a small upward previous report revision.  This caused a long spike of 17 ticks that peaked on the :31 bar, but could not sustain most of the spike due to crossing the PP Pivot and the narrow result offset from the forecast.  With JOBB, you would have filled long at 1.0316 with 1 tick of slippage, then look to exit at the PP Pivot at 1.0325 for 9 ticks.  After the initial peak, it reversed nearly all of the spike before chopping sideways for the next hour.  Then as the SMAs were rising, it bounced off of the 100 SMA long to achieve a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks 71 min after the report.  Then it reversed for only 13 ticks to the 200 SMA about 90 min later.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 4.3.2013

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May 042013
 

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 4_3_2013

4/3/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (2030 EDT)
Forecast:  0.3%
Actual: 1.3%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 1.2%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0403
1st Peak @ 1.0436 – 2031 (1 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 1.0413 – 2204 (94 min)
23 ticks

Notes:  Report strongly exceeded the forecast, with a healthy upward previous report revision of 0.3%.  This caused a 33 tick long spike in 1 min that crossed the No SMAs and the PP/R1 Pivots.  With JOBB you would have filled long at 1.0411 with 4 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to get about 20 ticks with ease as the :01 bar was near its peak above the R1 Pivot.   This was such a strong report that we saw higher than normal slippage and a change in the trading range of the market.  Hence the reversal was smaller than the spike and painstakingly slow to develop.  It took over 90 min to reclaim 23 ticks as it crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs then eclipsed the PP Pivot, but 15 ticks were surrendered by the :03 bar.

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 3.4.2013

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May 042013
 

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 3_4_2013

3/4/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Forecast:  0.4%
Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to -0.4%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0190
1st Peak @ 1.0212 – 1931 (1 min)
22 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0215 – 1937 (7 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1.0196 – 1948 (18 min)
19 ticks

Notes:  Report strongly exceeded the forecast, with a moderate downward previous report revision of -0.2%.  This caused a 22 tick long spike in 1 min that crossed the 50 SMA and the R1 Pivot, while using the 100 SMA as support to spring the long move.  With JOBB you would have filled long at 1.0200 with 5 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to get about 8-10 ticks with ease as the :01 bar was near its peak.   After a small retracement, it achieved a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks on the :07 bar.  Then the long term overbought sentiment took over and the lasting rally to cause a quick and fairly sharp reversal of 19 ticks in 11 min.  After that it rode the 50 slightly higher, then reversed for a decent correction.

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 2.5.2013

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May 042013
 

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 2_5_2013

2/5/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Forecast:  0.3%
Actual: -0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0365
1st Peak @ 1.0336 – 1931 (1 min)
29 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0314 – 2014 (44 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 1.0328 – 2022 (52 min)
14 ticks

Notes:  Report fell well short of the forecast, with a downward previous report revision of -0.1%.  This caused a 29 tick short spike in 1 min that crossed all 3 major SMAs near the origin along with the S1 Pivot, bottoming out between the S1 Pivot and the S2 Pivot.  With JOBB you would have filled short at 1.0355 with 5 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to get about 15 ticks with ease at the 1.0340 area.   Due to the disappointing news and the long term bearish sentiment on the 6AS, it continued lower for a 2nd peak of 22 more ticks 44 min later, eclipsing the S2 Pivot.  Then it reversed for 14 ticks back up to the near the 50 SMA 8 min later.  After that it fell and traded sideways just above the S2 Pivot. This report had a similar negative result (0.4 worse than expected) as the last 2 months, and had a slightly larger negative reaction.

6A 03 13 (1 Min) 01.08.13

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Jan 082013
 


6A 03 13 (1 Min) 01.08.13

1/8/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0462
1st Peak @ 1.0440 – 1931 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 1.0450 – 1932 (2 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0433 – 1941 (11 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.0451 – 2044 (74 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report fell well short of the forecast, with no previous report revision. This caused a 22 tick short spike in 1 min that crossed all 3 major SMAs spread out along with the R1 Pivot, bottoming out between the 200 SMA and the PP Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at 1.0452 with 5 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to get about 10 ticks with ease. Due to the disappointing news, it was able to achieve a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks 10 min later, eclipsing the PP Pivot. Then it reversed for 18 ticks back up to the 200 SMA about 1 hr later. This report had a similar negative result (0.4 worse than expected) as last month (Dec), and nearly an identical reaction.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 12.02.12

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Dec 022012
 


6A 12 12 (1 Min) 12.02.12

12/2/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0415
1st Peak @ 1.0392 – 1433 (3 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0382 – 1456 (26 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 1.0407 – 1553 (83 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Report fell well short of the forecast, with no previous report revision. This broke on Sunday btu still had a decent reaction. This caused a 23 tick short spike in 3 min that crossed the PP Pivot, then eclipsed the S1 Pivot at the peak. With JOBB you would have filled short at 1.0409 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to get 10-15 ticks with ease. Due to the disappointing news, it was able to achieve a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks about 25 min later. Then it reversed for 25 ticks crossing the S1 Pivot, 50 and 100 SMAs, but could not rise above the 200 SMA and PP Pivot at 1.0407.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 10.03.12

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Oct 032012
 


6A 12 12 (1 Min) 10.03.12

10/3/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.0155
1st Peak @ 1.0140 / Reverse to 1.0162 – 1531 (1 min)
-15 ticks / 7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0121 – 1558 (28 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 1.0158 – 1701 (91 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Report fell mildly short of the forecast, with no previous report revision. AUS Building Approvals broke at the same time, mildly exceeding the forecast. The offsetting reports caused indecision on the intial reaction, as it spiked 15 ticks short crossing the PP Pivot, then reversed long crossing the 50 SMA for 22 ticks in 4 sec. This would have hit your stop loss before you could act and yielded a 15 tick loss. This is the first Retail Sales report to be released at the same time as a non traded red report. In the future this will be cause to sit this one out. After the :32 bar, the negative retail sales report influence took over and the market shorted 34 ticks in about 25 min for the 2nd peak at the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed for 37 ticks just above the 200 SMA about 1 hr later.

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