Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 12.2.2014

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Dec 312014

12/2/2014 Quarterly Advance GDP (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.8457
1st Peak@ 0.8399 – 1931:07 (1 min)
58 ticks

Reversal to 0.8406 – 1932 (2 min)
7 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8386 – 1941 (11 min)
71 ticks

Reversal to 0.8397 – 1944 (14 min)
11 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.8415 – 2109 (99 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report missed the forecast by a large margin of 0.4% with no previous revision. This caused a large short spike of about 34 ticks immediately, then a slower descent for another 24 ticks in the next 64 sec to eclipse the S2 Pivot. With JOBB and a 17 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 0.8435 with 5 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it continue to fall and eventually hover around 0.8401 to allow 34 ticks to be captured. Once you see the strong offset on the result, be patient on the exit as it will peak late. Small reversals and stepping additional peaks are normal in these situations. It reversed for only 7 ticks in the next minute before falling for a final peak for 13 more ticks in the next 9 min. Then it reversed 11 ticks in 3 min and another 18 ticks in the next 85 min as it crossed the S2 Pivot.

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 12.3.2014

Jan 012015

12/3/2014 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.1%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 1.3%
Trade Bal
Forecast: -1.85B
Actual: -1.32B
Previous Revision: +0.02B to -2.24B
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.8399 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.8417 – 1930:02 (1 min)
)))18 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8399 – 1930:12 (1 min)
)))-18 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.8416 – 1930:25 (2 min)
)))17 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.8410 – 1936 (6 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.8425 – 1940 (10 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.8394 – 2041 (71 min)
31 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.8381 (in between the OOD and LOD / S1 Pivot)
Short entry – 0.8417 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Retail Sales report exceeded the forecast with a small upward previous report revision while the Trade Balance report exceeded the forecast by about 0.5B with a negligible upward previous report revision. This caused a long spike of 18 ticks in 2 sec that rose to cross the PP and R1 Mid Pivots, then retreat. This would filled the short entry depending on your placement if at 0.8417 or lower, then quickly backed off and chopped around 0.8405 for 10 sec allowing about 12 ticks to be captured. Then it pulled back to hover around the R1 Mid Pivot for the remainder of the bar. After that it reversed for 6 ticks in 4 min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks to eclipse the R1 Pivot. Then it trickled lower for 31 ticks in the next hour to the S1 Mid Pivot.

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 12.8.2014

NAB Business Confidence Comments Off

Jan 012015

12/8/2014 NAB Business Confidence (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 1
Previous Revision: +1 to 5
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.8267
1st Peak @ 0.8251 – 1932:41 (3 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.8261 – 1935 (5 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 0.8252 – 1938 (8 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.8264 – 1945 (15 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report came in 3 pts lower than last month with a 1 pt upward previous revision. This caused a 13 tick short spike in 22 sec that started just below the S2 Pivot and fell to cross the S3 Mid Pivot. It retreated then fell another 3 additional ticks in the next 2 min. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 0.8262 with 1 tick of slippage, then given you an opportunity to exit on the S3 Mid Pivot with 7 ticks where it hovered for 13 sec before retreating. After the peak on the :33 bar, it reversed 10 ticks in 2 min before pulling back 9 ticks in 3 min. Then it reversed 12 ticks in 7 min as it crossed the 13/20 SMAs.

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 12.10.2014

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Jan 012015

12/10/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (1930 EST)
Employment Change Forecast: 15.2K
Employment Change Actual: 42.7K
Previous Revision: -10.4K to 13.7K
Rate Forecast: 6.3%
Rate Actual: 6.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.8336
False Spike to 0.8330 – 1930:00 (1 min)
6 ticks

1st Peak @ 0.8372 – 1930:08 (1 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 0.8349 – 1933 (3 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.8375 – 1937 (7 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 0.8358 – 1951 (21 min)
17 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.8334 – 2057 (87 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Strong report with 27.5k more jobs created than the forecast with a matching rate, while the previous report was revised downward over 10k jobs. This caused a 6 tick short spike in the wrong direction initially that would have been contained by the 8 tick bracket. After that it spiked long for 36 ticks in 8 sec from the 50 SMA to eclipse the R2 Pivot and extend the HOD. With JOBB (limit orders, 12 tick setting, cancelifgapped=false), you would been filled long at about 0.8552 with 8 ticks of slippage. It peaked and hovered briefly for about 4 sec near the top before retreating, then it rebounded later in the bar to allow up to 17 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed 23 ticks in 2 min to the 13 SMA before climbing for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks 4 min later. Then it reversed 17 ticks in 14 min, crossing the 13/20 SMAs and another 24 ticks in the next hour as it eclipsed the 200 SMA.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 1.6.2016

Building Approvals, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Jan 142016

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 1_6_2016

1/6/2016 Monthly Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Forecast: -2.98B
Actual: -2.91B
Previous Revision: +0.06B to -3.25B
TRAP TRADE – DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7060
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7049 – 1930:24 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7055 – 1930:08 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7050 – 1931:02 (2 min)
)))5 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7055 – 1935 (5 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7046 – 1947 (17 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.7061 – 2005 (35 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7052 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7045 (in between the 200 SMA / PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7067 (just above the HOD) / 0.7076 (just under the R2 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.7052 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.7054 – 2 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7059 (just above the 50 SMA) – move lower

Notes: Near match on the Trade balance, but a huge miss on the concurrent Building Approvals to cause a decisive short spike. Still would have allowed an exit around breakeven on the positive side.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11.30.2015

Building Approvals Comments Off

Jan 082016

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11_30_2015

11/30/2015 Building Approvals (1930 EST)
Forecast: -2.4%
Actual: 3.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 2.3%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7221
1st Peak @ 0.7233 – 1932:22 (3 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.7229 – 1946 (16 min)
4 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7243 – 1958 (28 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.7235 – 1959 (29 min)
8 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7224 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7232 – 8 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7236 (below the R1 Mid Pivot) – move down

Notes: The reversal after the 2nd peak was aided by a disappointing CNY manufacturing PMI report.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11.1.2015

Building Approvals Comments Off

Jan 082016

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11_1_2015

11/1/2015 Building Approvals (1930 EST)
Forecast: 1.8%
Actual: 2.2%
Previous Revision: -2.6% to -9.5%
DULL FILL
Started @ 0.7122
1st Peak @ 0.7118 – 1930:05 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 0.7123 – 1930:13 (1 min)
5 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7119 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7120 – 1 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7110 (above the LOD / PP Pivot) – move up

Notes: Small offset caused a muted reaction of only 4 ticks. Look to exit within 2 ticks of breakeven with the minimal movement.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 9.29.2015

Building Approvals Comments Off

Jan 082016

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 9_30_2015

9/29/2015 Building Approvals (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -1.8%
Actual: -6.9%
Previous Revision: +3.7% to 7.9%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.6984
1st Peak @ 0.6974 – 2130:03 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.6982 – 2134 (4 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.6968 – 2213 (43 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.6993 – 2248 (78 min)
25 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.6981 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.6975 – 6 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.6973 (below the R1 Mid Pivot / 200 SMA) – move up 3 ticks

Notes: Nice 2nd peak opportunity to sell at the 50 / 100 SMAs at 2134 – 5.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 8.31.2015

Building Approvals Comments Off

Sep 052015

8/31/2015 Building Approvals (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 2.9%
Actual: 4.2%
Previous Revision: +3.0% to -5.2%
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7125
Head Fake to 0.7130 – 2130:05 (1 min)
5 ticks

1st Peak @ 0.7114 – 2130:44 (1 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7106 – 2140 (10 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.7121 – 2158 (28 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded the forecast along with a large upward previous revision. This was dual booked with a quarterly current account report that disappointed the market. Hence on the conflicting news, we got a head fake long spike of 5 ticks followed by the true short move of 11 ticks in 44 sec. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at 0.7129 with 1 tick of slippage then it would have backed off to hover about 4 ticks in the red. Move the stop up a few ticks and look to exit with a handful of ticks loss. It fell slowly to cross the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it stalled for a few min before falling another 8 ticks to cross the 100/200 SMAs and reach the PP Pivot. Then it reversed 15 ticks in 18 min to the R1 Mid Pivot. After that it fell again, but it was likely due to other factors.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 7.29.2015

Building Approvals Comments Off

Sep 052015

7/29/2015 Building Approvals (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -0.8%
Actual: -8.2%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 2.3%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.7297
1st Peak @ 0.7282 – 2130:22 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.7305 – 2158 (28 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report fell well short of the forecast along with a negligible downward previous revision that resulted in short spike of 15 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 0.7293 with 1 tick of slippage then allowed up to about 10 ticks to be captured after 22 sec. Then it reversed 23 ticks in 27 min to the HOD.

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