Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 03-15 (1 Min) 1.5.2015

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Jan 192015

1/5/2015 Monthly Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Forecast: -1.59B
Actual: -0.93B
Previous Revision: +0.44B to -0.88B
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER (NEAR BREAKEVEN EXIT)
Anchor Point @ 0.8048 – shift to 0.8051 (on the 200/100 SMAs)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.8073 – 1930:31 (1 min)
)))22 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8061 – 1930:47 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.8078 – 1933 (3 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 0.8062 – 1949 (19 min)
16 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8083 – 2000 (30 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 0.8067 – 2031 (61 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8043 (on the LOD) / 0.8036 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.8059 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.8067 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast with a large upward revision to the previous report. This caused a long spike of 22 ticks in 31 sec that crossed the R1 Pivot and nearly reached the R2 Mid Pivot while extending the HOD. As the price drifted upward about 3 ticks in the 45 sec before the report, bias your brackets higher. This would have filled both of your short entries for an average entry of 0.8063 then gone up to 10 ticks in the red from the combined position before reversing to allow 1-2 ticks of profit near the area of the HOD position. Look to exit there. After that it stepped higher for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks in 2 min before reversing 16 ticks in 16 min. Then it climbed for a final peak of 5 more ticks in 11 min before reversing 16 ticks in 31 min.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 6.30.2015

Building Approvals Comments Off

Jul 262015

6/30/2015 Building Approvals (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 1.2%
Actual: 2.4%
Previous Revision: -0.8% to -5.2%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.7683
1st Peak @ 0.7692 – 2130:18 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.7686 – 2133:14 (4 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report moderately exceeded the forecast but was offset with a moderate downward previous revision that resulted in long spike of 9 ticks to the HOD. It did have a short corrective move prior to the report which may have been a tripwire to cancel the order but it would have been safe. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at 0.7686 with no slippage then allowed about 5 ticks to be captured after 18 sec. Then it reversed 6 ticks in 3 min to the 20 SMA. After that it traded sideways as it headed into the CNY final manufacturing report.

6A 03-15 (1 Min) 1.8.2015

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Jan 192015

1/8/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EDT)
Retail Sales
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.8080 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.8068 – 1930:11 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8082 – 1932:14 (3 min)
)))14 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.8070 – 1936 (6 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.8102 – 2013 (43 min)
32 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8069 (on the LOD) / 0.8060 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.8092 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.8102 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Retail Sales report fell short of the forecast with no previous revision. This caused a choppy short move of 12 ticks in 11 sec that started above the 100 SMA and fell to cross all 3 major SMAs, the OOD, the PP Pivot, and eclipse the LOD. It reversed 14 ticks in the next 2 min to reach the R1 Mid Pivot and extend the HOD. This would have been an ideal setup for the trap trade. Your inner long entry would have filled at 0.8069, then allowed up to 12 ticks to be captured on the reversal. After that it pulled back 12 ticks in 3 min back to the PP Pivot. Then it reversed strongly for 32 ticks in the next 37 min to the R2 Mid Pivot.

6A 03-15 (1 Min) 1.14.2015

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Jan 192015

1/14/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (1930 EST)
Employment Change Forecast: 5.3K
Employment Change Actual: 37.4K
Previous Revision: +2.3K to 45.0K
Rate Forecast: 6.3%
Rate Actual: 6.1%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 6.2%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.8112
1st Peak @ 0.8164 – 1930:50 (1 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 0.8154 – 1932 (2 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.8172 – 1933 (3 min)
60 ticks

Reversal to 0.8148 – 1940 (10 min)
24 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8187 – 2007 (37 min)
75 ticks

Reversal to 0.8143 – 2123 (53 min)
44 ticks

Notes: Strong report with 32.1k more jobs created than the forecast with a 0.2% improvement in the rate while the previous report was revised better. This caused a 52 tick long spike in 50 sec that started on the 50 SMA and rose to cross the 100/200 SMAs and reach the R2 Pivot as it extended the HOD. It spiked 34 ticks immediately, then gained the remainder throughout the bar. With JOBB (limit orders, 12 tick setting, cancelifgapped=false), you would been filled long at about 0.8130 with 10 ticks of slippage and no worse than 12 ticks due to the retracement. It hovered just above the R2 Mid Pivot for several seconds to allow a quick 25 ticks to be captured. If you were patient, you could have snagged another 7 or so ticks later in the bar. It reversed for 10 ticks in 1 min before achieving a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks in 1 min. Then it reversed 24 ticks in 7 min before climbing for the final peak of 15 more ticks in 27 min. After that it reversed 44 ticks in 53 min to the 200 SMA.

6A 03-15 (1 Min) 1.26.2015

NAB Business Confidence Comments Off

Feb 152015

1/26/2015 NAB Business Confidence (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 2
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7889
1st Peak @ 0.7897 – 1930:07 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.7881 – 1932 (2 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 0.7892 – 1944 (14 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.7879 – 1956 (26 min)
13 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7905 – 2102 (92 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Report came in 1 pt lower than last month with no previous revision. This caused an 8 tick long spike in 7 sec that started just below the old OOD position then climbed to cross several barriers – all 3 major SMAs, the PP Pivot, and OOD. This prompted a short hovering and reversal after about 20 sec. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 0.7893 with no slippage, then given you an opportunity to exit with 1-2 ticks when it hovered. This would have been a good reversal setup too with all the resistance barriers and narrow offset on the result. It fell 10 ticks from the peak to cross the S1 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD before pulling back 11 ticks to the PP Pivot on 12 min. Then it reversed 13 ticks in 12 min before climbing for a final peak of 8 more ticks in the next hour, crossing the R1 Mid Pivot and extending the HOD.

6A 03-15 (1 Min) 1.27.2015

Quarterly CPI Comments Off

Feb 162015

1/27/2015 Quarterly CPI / Trimmed Mean CPI (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.2%
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 0.3%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7887
1st Peak@ 0.7970 – 1930:50 (1 min)
83 ticks

Reversal to 0.7949 – 1932 (2 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7979 – 1937 (7 min)
92 ticks

Reversal to 0.7959 – 1941 (11 min)
27 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7984 – 2005 (35 min)
97 ticks

Reversal to 0.7946 – 2033 (63 min)
38 ticks

Notes: This report was mildly conflicting with the CPI narrowly missing the forecast by 0.1% and the Trimmed Mean CPI exceeding the forecast by 0.2% (the exact opposite of last report). We saw premature movement in the waning seconds again. This would have worked in your favor as you would have a no slippage fill long at 0.7894 then ridden the early heat by 1 tick to be safe for the big spike that followed. As it ascended quickly to the R2 Mid Pivot for about 70 ticks, look to exit with 60+ ticks. It followed the Trimmed mean figure in this case to step higher with small reversals. It mostly traded between the R2 Mid Pivot and R2 Pivot until the final peak briefly broke above the R2 Pivot 35 min after the report, then the reversal fell 38 ticks in 28 min to the R1 Pivot.

6A 03-15 (1 Min) 1.29.2015

Quarterly PPI Comments Off

Feb 162015

1/29/2015 Quarterly PPI (2030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.1%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7756 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span – 0.7755 to 0.7759
)))4 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7746 (just below the OOD) / 0.7736 (just below the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7765 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.7776 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in 0.2% lower than the forecast to cause a dull initial reaction that eventually fell 13 ticks in 11 min, then reversed 18 ticks in 3 min and another 8 ticks in 20 more min. It was almost like the typical pattern of a shortly sustained peak was in slow motion to happen over 30 min.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 2.26.2014

Quarterly Private Capital Expenditure Comments Off

Feb 232015

2/26/2014 Quarterly Private Capital Expenditure (1930 EST)
Forecast: -1.0%
Actual: -5.2%
Previous Revision: -1.0% to 2.6%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.8950
1st Peak@ 0.8907 – 1931:50 (2 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 0.8919 – 1935 (5 min)
12 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.8940 – 2112 (102 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 4.2% along with a 1.0% downward revision to the previous report. This caused a short spike of 43 ticks that started on the PP Pivot then fell to the S1 Mid Pivot and stalled for a few sec before continuing to fall to the S2 Pivot. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your short order would have filled with 6 ticks of slippage at 0.8940. It fell quickly to hover at 0.8920 near the S2 Mid Pivot, then trickle lower for about 13 more ticks to cross the S2 Pivot. This would have allowed 20 -30 ticks to be captured. It reversed 12 ticks in 3 min to the S2 Mid Pivot, then another 21 ticks very slowly in about 1.5 hrs to the 200 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 5.28.2014

Quarterly Private Capital Expenditure Comments Off

Feb 232015

5/28/2014 Quarterly Private Capital Expenditure (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -1.6%
Actual: -4.2%
Previous Revision: +0.7% to -4.5%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9221
1st Peak@ 0.9200 – 2130:04 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 0.9250 – 2132:30 (3 min)
50 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9277 – 2316 (106 min)
77 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 2.6% but was offset by a 0.7% upward revision to the previous report. This caused a short spike of 21 ticks that started just below the OOD / 200 SMA and fell to hit the S1 Pivot after 4 sec, It hovered in a 4 tick range for about 8 sec before retreating to hover near the S1 Mid Pivot then back to the origin. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your short order would have filled with 5 ticks of slippage at 0.9112. You would have seen the hovering and relatively small move, so exit quickly here for about 10 ticks, or after the small retreat for 3 ticks. It continued to reverse long on the previous revision news for a total of 50 ticks in 2 min to the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it climbed another 27 ticks in 103 min to the R4 Mid Pivot.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 8.27.2014

Quarterly Private Capital Expenditure Comments Off

Feb 232015

8/27/2014 Quarterly Private Capital Expenditure (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -0.6%
Actual: 1.1%
Previous Revision: +1.7% to -2.5%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9327
1st Peak@ 0.9364 – 2130:51 (1 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 0.9349 – 2134 (4 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 0.9360 – 2138 (8 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.9347 – 2153 (23 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 1.7% along with a 1.7% upward revision to the previous report. This caused a long spike of 37 ticks that started on the 200 SMA and rose to hit and stall at the R1 Pivot after 15 sec, then climb to the R3 Mid Pivot late in the bar. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your long order would have filled with 3 ticks of slippage at 0.9334. You would have seen it stall and hover on the R1 Pivot, but be patient as the result and previous revision are consistent and the size of the spike at 15 ticks was very small compared to the average. Sure enough, it climbed another 22 ticks as the bar neared expiration to reach the R3 Mid Pivot and allow up to 30 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed 15 ticks in 3 min to the R2 Pivot before a pullback of 11 ticks in 4 min. Then it reversed 13 ticks in 15 min to the R2 Pivot and traded sideways.

Older Entries Newer Entries