Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 11.26.2014

Quarterly Private Capital Expenditure Comments Off

Feb 232015

11/26/2014 Quarterly Private Capital Expenditure (1930 EST)
Forecast: -1.7%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: +0.5% to 1.6%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.8525
1st Peak@ 0.8550 – 1930:49 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 0.8539 – 1933 (3 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.8557 – 1942 (12 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 0.8535 – 2001 (31 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 1.9% along with a 0.5% upward revision to the previous report. This caused a long spike of 25 ticks that started on the PP Pivot and rose to hit and stall at the 200 SMA after 2 sec, then resume climbing to cross the R1 Mid Pivot just before the :31 bar expired. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your long order would have filled with 3 ticks of slippage at 0.8532. You would have seen it stall on the 200 SMA for only 4 sec, but be patient as the result and previous revision are consistent and the size of the spike at 10 ticks was very small compared to the average. Sure enough, it climbed another 15 ticks as the bar neared expiration to allow up to 17 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed 11 ticks in 2 min to the R1 Mid Pivot before climbing for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks in 9 min to nearly reach the R1 Pivot. After that it reversed 22 ticks to the 200 SMA in 19 min.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 5.31.2015

Building Approvals Comments Off

Jun 092015

5/31/2015 Building Approvals (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -1.7%
Actual: -4.4%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 2.8%
INDECISIVE – TRIPWIRE TO CANCEL
Started @ 0.7635
1st Peak @ 0.7642 – 2130:01 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.7624 – 2130:05 (1 min)
18 ticks

Pullback to 0.7636 – 2130:13 (1 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report moderately fell short of the forecast along with a negligible upward previous revision that resulted in a whipsaw with a warning to cancel as the market dove 8 ticks and recovered 15 sec before the release. So disable the strategy and avoid the foreshadowed chaos. After the release, it climbed 7 ticks before reversing 18 ticks and eventually pulling back 12 ticks to the origin area on the S1 Mid Pivot / 200 SMA. Then it chopped sideways without any conviction.

6A 03-15 (1 Min) 2.2.2015

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Mar 042015

2/2/2015 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (2230 EST)
Forecast: 2.50%
Actual: 2.25%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER STOPPED
Anchor point @ 0.7778
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7718 – 2229:54 (0 min)
)))-60 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7830 – 2229:59 (0 min)
)))112 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7644 – 2230:14 (1 min)
)))186 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7693 – 2230:17 (1 min)
)))49 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.7631 – 2254 (24 min)
147 ticks

Reversal to 0.7656 – 2308 (38 min)
25 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7756 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7800 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Australia’s central bank took everyone by shock and surprise to institute a 25 BP rate cut. This caused a very large and volatile reaction that fell 60 ticks to the S3 Mid Pivot, then reversed 112 ticks to nearly reach the R2 Pivot and extend the HOD. Trading was frozen for 10 sec, but when resuming the market had pulled back 186 ticks in 14 sec. With JOBB and a single tier of about 20 ticks, you would have been filled with the long entry around 0.7756, then stopped 2 sec later at 0.7739 with 17 ticks loss. Fortunately we anticipated the possibility of a cut and only used 1 tier. After the big pullback, it reversed 49 ticks in 3 sec. Then it settled down and drifted lower for a 2nd peak of 87 more ticks in 23 min as it established firmly below the S4 Pivot. After that it reversed 25 ticks to the S4 Pivot in 14 min, then fell to trade sideways.

6A 03-15 (1 Min) 2.4.2015

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Mar 042015

2/4/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EDT)
Retail Sales
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7747 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7736 – 1930:07 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7748 – 1930:13 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7734 – 1930:34 (1 min)
)))-13 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7746 – 1936 (6 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7716 – 1948 (18 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 0.7748 – 2028 (58 min)
32 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7736 (just below the OOD) / 0.7727 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7759 (just below the HOD) / 0.7769 (on the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Retail Sales report fell short of the forecast by a narrow 0.1% with no previous revision. This caused a choppy short move of 11 ticks in 7 sec that started just below the 50 SMA and fell to cross the 100 SMA and reach the LOD. This would have filled your inner long entry to the tick, then allowed up to 12 ticks to be captured on the reversal where it hovered above 0.007745 for 14 sec. After that it pulled back 13 ticks to the LOD before reversing 12 ticks in 5 min. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 20 more ticks to the S2 Mid Pivot before reversing 32 ticks in 40 min as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA. Then it continued to step higher in the next few hours.

6A 03-15 (1 Min) 2.5.2015

RBA Monetary Policy Comments Off

Mar 052015

2/5/2015 Quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.7789
1st Peak @ 0.7782 – 1930:10 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.7818 – 1930:33 (1 min)
36 ticks

Pullback to 0.7804 – 1932 (2 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.7842 – 1936 (6 min)
38 ticks

Pullback to 0.7806 – 1948 (18 min)
36 ticks

Notes: The Reserve Bank of Australia announced growth in Australia and its major trading partners met or very nearly met expectations overall. This caused a short move initially that changed direction after about 20 sec. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, you would have been filled short at 0.7786 with no slippage, then seen it fall to hover on the 100 SMA for 3-4 ticks of profit for 11 sec before reversing strongly. This is the first instance of this report to behave this way to have a relatively tame change of sentiment several seconds after the release. You may have observed the hovering and exited with a few ticks, but if not you would have seen it slowly march to the stop for a 5 tick loss on its way to a 36 tick reversal achieved halfway through the :31 bar as it crossed the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 14 ticks in the next minute to the R1 Pivot before reversing 38 ticks to eclipse the R2 Pivot in 4 min. Then it pulled back 36 ticks back to the R1 Pivot in 12 min.

6A 03-15 (1 Min) 2.9.2015

NAB Business Confidence Comments Off

Mar 052015

2/9/2015 NAB Business Confidence (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 3
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION – FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Started @ 0.7781
1st Peak @ 0.7786 – 1930:07 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 0.7782 – 1934 (4 min)
4 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7794 – 1937 (7 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.7787 – 1945 (15 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report came in 1 pt higher than last month with no previous revision. This caused a meager 5 tick long spike in 7 sec that started on the OOD and rose to cross the 100 SMA. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 0.7780 with no slippage, then allowed an exit between 2 ticks loss and Breakeven as it tamely hovered around the 100 SMA. After a small reversal of 4 ticks in 3 min, it climbed 8 more ticks for a 2nd peak after 3 min to cross the S1 Mid Pivot, 200 SMA, and extend the HOD. Then it reversed 7 ticks in 8 min to the 200 SMA.

6A 03-15 (1 Min) 2.11.2015

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Mar 052015

2/11/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (1930 EST)
Employment Change Forecast: -4.7K
Employment Change Actual: -12.2K
Previous Revision: +4.9K to 42.3K
Rate Forecast: 6.2%
Rate Actual: 6.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7706
1st Peak @ 0.7641 – 1931:32 (2 min)
65 ticks

Reversal to 0.7651 – 1933 (3 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7635 – 1952 (22 min)
71 ticks

Reversal to 0.7652 – 2001 (31 min)
17 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7630 – 2038 (68 min)
76 ticks

Reversal to 0.7646 – 2102 (92 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Weak report with 7.5k more jobs lost than the forecast with a 0.2% increase in the rate while the previous report was revised moderately better. This caused a 65 tick short spike in about 1.5 min that started on the 50 / 100 SMAs and fell to cross the S2 Pivot as it extended the LOD. It fell 13 ticks instantly to fill the short entry with 4 ticks of slippage at 0.7694, then the 20 tick stop would have contained the volatility of the first few seconds before it decisively dove lower. It hovered near the S2 Mid Pivot for about 30 sec to allow an exit for up to 40 ticks. Then it trickled lower for 13 more ticks in the next 45 sec. After the peak, it reversed 10 ticks in 2 min before falling for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in 19 min. Then it reversed 17 ticks to cross the S2 Pivot before falling for a final peak of 5 more ticks after 37 min. Then it reversed 16 ticks in 24 min to the S2 Pivot.

6A 03-15 (1 Min) 2.16.2015

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Mar 172015

2/16/2015 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Started @ 0.7745 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7729 – 1930:11 (1 min)
)))-16 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7749 – 1930:42 (1 min)
)))20 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7741 – 1930:49 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7768 – 1931:53 (2 min)
)))27 ticks
—————-
Pullback to 0.7755 – 1937 (7 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.7777 – 2036 (66 min)
22 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7730 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7761 (on the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Minutes caused a short reaction that fell 16 ticks initially after 11 sec to eclipse the S2 Pivot then reverse. This was a perfect setup for the trap trade as this would have breached the long entry by 1 tick then reversed for 20 ticks in 31 sec to the S1 Mid Pivot. After a small pullback of 8 ticks, it climbed for another net of 19 ticks to eclipse the R1 Pivot late in the :32 bar to allow up to 35+ ticks to be captured. Then it pulled back 13 ticks in 5 min to the PP Pivot before reversing 22 ticks in the next hour after eclipsing the R2 Mid Pivot.

6A 03-15 (1 Min) 2.25.2015

Quarterly Private Capital Expenditure Comments Off

Mar 182015

2/25/2015 Quarterly Private Capital Expenditure (1930 EST)
Forecast: -1.7%
Actual: -2.2%
Previous Revision: +0.4% to 1.6%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.7876
1st Peak@ 0.7849 – 1930:18 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.7862 – 1932 (2 min)
13 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7830 – 2038 (68 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 0.7845 – 2134 (124 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.5% but was offset by a 0.4% upward revision to the previous report. This caused a short spike of 27 ticks that started on the S1 Mid Pivot / OOD and fell to nearly reach the S3 Mid Pivot and hover for about 20 sec before reversing. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 0.7872 with no slippage. You would have seen it fall and hover just above the S3 Mid Pivot. As we said in the alert, when the revision is offsetting the result, look to exit at the first sign of hovering, so exit with about 20 ticks. After the peak it reversed 13 ticks into the :32 bar before stepping lower for a final peak of 19 more ticks in the next 66 min as it crossed the S3 Pivot. Then it reversed 15 ticks in about an hour after crossing the 100 SMA. After that it continued to reverse for a few more ticks each hour.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 5.3.2015

Building Approvals Comments Off

May 062015

5/3/2015 Building Approvals (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -1.7%
Actual: 2.8%
Previous Revision: +1.6% to -1.6%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.7811
1st Peak @ 0.7820 – 2130:03 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.7811 – 2132 (2 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report moderately exceeded the forecast along with a healthy upward previous revision to cause a 9 tick long spike in 3 sec that crossed the OOD and PP Pivot. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 0.7815 with 1 tick of slippage, then backed off before pulling back later in the :31 bar. This would have allowed 1-3 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 9 ticks to the origin in 1 min then traded sideways before the Chinese HSBC report at 2145.

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