Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 03-15 (1 Min) 3.2.2015

Mar 222015

3/2/2015 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (2230 EST)
Forecast: 2.00%
Actual: 2.25%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER STOPPED
Anchor point @ 0.7770
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7821 – 2229:25 (0 min)
)))51 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7790 – 2229:39 (0 min)
)))-31 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7850 – 2230:01 (1 min)
)))60 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7802 – 2231:11 (2 min)
)))-48 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.7821 – 2234 (4 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.7791 – 2246 (16 min)
30 ticks

Pullback to 0.7825 – 2312 (42 min)
34 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7743 (just below the S2 Pivot / LOD)
Short entry – 0.7800 (on the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Fresh after a surprise 25 BP rate cut last month, Australia’s central bank was expected to cut rates by another 25 BP but took everyone by surprise as they left rates unchanged. This caused a premature and very large long spike of 51 ticks about 35 sec early that reached the R4 Mid Pivot. We did anticipate this scenario, but underestimated the size of the spike by about 15 ticks. With JOBB and a single tier of about 30 ticks, you would have been filled with the short entry around 0.7800, then stopped 1 sec later at 0.7815 with 15 ticks loss. Then it reversed 31 ticks in the next 14 sec and chopped sideways in between the R2 and R3 Mid Pivots until the new bar where it spiked long for another 60 ticks in 1 sec to eclipse the R4 Pivot. Then it reversed 48 ticks in the next 70 sec to the R3 Mid Pivot. After that it pulled back 19 ticks in 2 min to the R4 Mid Pivot before reversing 30 ticks in 12 min to nearly reach the R2 Pivot. Then it pulled back 34 ticks in 26 min to the R4 mid Pivot and traded sideways.

6A 03-15 (1 Min) 3.3.2015

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Mar 222015

3/3/2015 Quarterly GDP (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.4%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.7808
1st Peak@ 0.7789 – 1930:08 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.7822 – 1932 (2 min)
33 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.7829 – 1945 (15 min)
40 ticks

Pullback to 0.7812 – 2027 (57 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report missed the forecast by 0.2% with a small upward previous revision. This caused a shortly sustained small short move of 19 ticks to the S2 Pivot followed by a 33 tick reversal after 8 sec that eclipsed the PP Pivot. With JOBB and a 17 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 0.7791 with no slippage, then you would have seen it retreat slowly, so exit quickly to minimize the loss before it hits the stop loss. The abnormal behavior of a small spike and slow retreat should have tipped you off to exit quickly too. The 10 tick stop would have protected you if you waited up to 10 sec, but you should have been able to exit with about 5 ticks loss. After the reversal, it continued to climb another 7 ticks in the next 13 min as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 17 ticks in 42 min to the S1 Mid Pivot.

6A 03-15 (1 Min) 3.4.2015

Mar 232015

3/4/2015 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
Trade Bal
Forecast: -0.94B
Actual: -0.98B
Previous Revision: -0.06B to -0.50B
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7815 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7809 – 1930:13 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7821 – 1934 (4 min)
)))12 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7797 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entry – 0.7835 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: In an extremely rare occurrence, both the Retail Sales and Trade Balance reports matched the forecasts. This caused the expected dull reaction with only a 6 tick short move in 13 sec that started on the clustered major SMAs and fell to touch the OOD/LOD, then reverse. This would have fallen well short of the long entry, so cancel the order. It reversed 12 ticks in 3 min then continued to trade sideways as it shrugged off the non event.

6A 03-15 (1 Min) 3.9.2015

NAB Business Confidence Comments Off

Mar 232015

3/9/2015 NAB Business Confidence (2030 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 0
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7674
1st Peak @ 0.7668 – 2030:10 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.7674 – 2035 (4 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7661 – 2041 (11 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.7674 – 2057 (27 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report came in 3 pts lower than last month with a reading of 0 with no previous revision. This caused a 6 tick short spike in 10 sec that started on the 13 SMA and fell to cross the S3 Mid Pivot and nearly reach the LOD. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 0.7670 with no slippage, then allowed an exit with 1-2 ticks of profit where it hovered for over a minute below the S3 Mid Pivot. After 3 min it reversed 6 ticks back to the 20 SMA before falling for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks as it extended the LOD in 7 min. Then it reversed 13 ticks to the 50 SMA in 16 min.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 3.16.2015

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Mar 242015

3/16/2015 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2030 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER STOPPED
Started @ 0.7595 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7568 – 2030:14 (1 min)
)))-27 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7587 – 2031:28 (2 min)
)))19 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7578 – 2032:39 (3 min)
)))-8 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.7595 – 2041 (11 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 0.7572 – 2054 (24 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.7586 – 2113 (43 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7579 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7611 (just below the PP Pivot)

Notes: Minutes caused a short reaction that stepped down slowly for 16 ticks in 13 sec, then another 11 ticks in the next sec. It crossed the S2 Pivot and reversed. While we advise cancelling the bracket if not filled in 20 sec, the gradual move is also a poor scenario for a reversal and should have been a tripwire to cancel the order before it filled. If you did not cancel, your long entry would have filled at 0.7579 then your stop would have been barely filled at 0.7569 for a 10 tick loss before it reversed. It climbed 19 ticks in a little over a minute to the S1 Pivot which would have allowed about 7 ticks to be captured if the stop had been a mere 2 ticks larger. Then it fell 8 ticks in the next min to the S2 Mid Pivot before reversing 17 ticks in 8 min to the 50 SMA. Then it fell 23 ticks in 13 min before reversing 14 ticks in 19 min to the S1 Pivot.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 3.31.2015

Building Approvals Comments Off

Apr 112015

3/31/2015 Building Approvals (2030 EDT)
Forecast: -3.8%
Actual: -3.2%
Previous Revision: -2.0% to 5.9%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.7597
Head Fake @ 0.7594 – 2030:04 (1 min)
3 ticks

1st Peak @ 0.7605 – 2030:16 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.7595 – 2032 (2 min)
10 ticks

Double Top @ 0.7604 – 2037 (7 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.7592 – 2046 (16 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded the forecast but was offset by a healthy downward previous revision to cause a 3 tick short head fake in 4 sec to the 13 SMA followed by an 8 tick long spike 12 sec later to nearly reach the R1 Pivot. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 0.7597 with no slippage, then backed off and stalled on the R1 Mid Pivot for 4 sec. Then it slowly marched toward the stop and would have hit the stop at 12 sec after the fill with no previous intervention. Recognize the offsetting results combined with the market behavior and get out with 2-4 ticks loss as opposed to 8 ticks. After the peak, it reversed 10 ticks in 1 min to the R1 Mid Pivot / 13 SMA before climbing for a double top in 5 min. Then it reversed 12 ticks to the 50 SMA in 9 min.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 4.1.2015

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Apr 122015

4/1/2015 Monthly Trade Balance (2030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.28B
Actual: -1.26B
Previous Revision: -0.02B to -1.00B
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7547
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7554 – 2030:56 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7546 – 2032:50 (3 min)
)))-8 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.7557 – 2045 (15 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.7549 – 2050 (20 min)
8 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7540 (just below the S2 Pivot) / 0.7532 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.7555 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 0.7562 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast with a negligible downward revision to the previous report. This caused a dull long spike of 7 ticks in nearly a minute that nearly reached the 13 SMA. This would have made it an easy decision to cancel the order with only about 4 ticks movement at 20 sec. After peaking it reversed 8 ticks in nearly 2 min to the LOD. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks to the S1 Pivot in 12 min before reversing 8 ticks in 5 min.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 4.6.2015

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Apr 212015

4/6/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.5%
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7566 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7592 – 2130:03 (1 min)
)))26 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7567 – 2132:30 (3 min)
)))25 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.7594 – 2218 (48 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 0.7584 – 2232 (62 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7555 (just below the 50/100 SMAs) / 0.7546 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 0.7578 (in between the HOD and S1 Pivot) / 0.7587 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Retail Sales report exceeded the forecast by 0.3% with a small upward previous revision. This caused a long spike of 26 ticks in 3 sec that nearly reached the S1 Mid Pivot to fill both of your short tiers and setup an average short position of 0.7582.5. Then it dropped 15 ticks immediately and another 10 ticks after 2 min to allow an exit at about 0.7569, just below the S2 Mid Pivot for 27 total ticks. After that, it climbed for a minor 2nd peak of 2 more ticks in 45 min to cross the S1 Mid Pivot before reversing 10 ticks in 14 min.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 4.7.2015

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Apr 212015

4/7/2015 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (0030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.25%
Actual: 2.25%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER STOPPED
Anchor point @ 0.7578
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7671 – 0030:08 (1 min)
)))93 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7636 – 0031:39 (2 min)
)))-35 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 0.7680 – 0123 (53 min)
102 ticks

Reversal to 0.7668 – 0134 (64 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7560 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7596 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot / HOD)

Notes: After a surprise 25 BP rate cut 2 months ago, and no action when a cut was expected last month, Australia’s central bank was mildly expected to cut rates by another 25 BP and when they did not follow through, the market rallied with a large long spike of 93 ticks. It started about 7 sec premature, crossed the R2 Pivot and nearly reached the R3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB Trap Trade and a single tier of about 18-20 ticks, you would have been filled with the short entry around 0.7596, then stopped instantly at 0.7611 with 15 ticks loss. Then it climbed another 60 ticks and remained at the top. It reversed 35 ticks after about 90 sec to the R2 Mid Pivot. Fortunately we only used 1 tier on this and listed it as higher risk. After the reversal it climbed for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks in 51 min to cross the R3 Mid Pivot before reversing 12 ticks in 11 min. After that it traded mostly sideways near the R3 Mid Pivot.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 4.13.2015

NAB Business Confidence Comments Off

Apr 212015

4/13/2015 NAB Business Confidence (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 3
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.7577
1st Peak @ 0.7594 – 2132:53 (3 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.7579 – 2147 (17 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report came in 3 pts higher than last month with a reading of 3 with no previous revision. This caused a 17 tick long spike in nearly 3 min that started on the 50 SMA and rose to cross the R2 Mid Pivot then reach the R2 Pivot and extend the LOD. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 0.7582 with 1 tick of slippage, then allowed a patient exit with up to 11 ticks of profit where it hovered on the R2 Pivot for about 20 sec. After hovering further for 4 min around the R2 Pivot, it reversed 15 ticks in 10 min as it crossed the 50 SMA.

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