Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 4.15.2015

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Apr 212015

4/15/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (2130 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 14.9K
Employment Change Actual: 37.7K
Previous Revision: +26.4K to 42.0K
Rate Forecast: 6.3%
Rate Actual: 6.1%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 6.3%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7693
1st Peak @ 0.7750 – 2131:15 (2 min)
57 ticks

Reversal to 0.7740 – 2135 (5 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7758 – 2141 (11 min)
65 ticks

Reversal to 0.7732 – 2001 (31 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Very broadly strong report with 22.8k more jobs created than the forecast with a 0.2% drop in the rate while the previous report was revised strongly better. This caused an immediate 49 tick long spike that retraced about 40 ticks. This is where our settings would have come in handy. Your long entry would have been slipped initially due to exceeding 12 ticks of slippage. Then your order would have been filled on the retracement long at about 0.7710. Then it continued to trickle upward until it hovered around the R2 Pivot. This would have allowed up to 40 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 10 ticks in 3 min before climbing for a minor 2nd peak of 8 more ticks in 6 min. Then it reversed 26 ticks in 20 min after crossing the 50 SMA. Then it traded sideways and drifted a little lower as volume dried up.

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 10.21.2014

Quarterly CPI Comments Off

Nov 162014

10/21/2014 Quarterly CPI / Trimmed Mean CPI (2030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.5%
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.8740
Premature Spike @ 0.8746 – 2130:00 (1 min)
6 ticks

1st Peak@ 0.8709 – 2030:03 (1 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 0.8737 – 2030:50 (1 min)
28 ticks

Pullback to 0.8728 – 2032 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.8755 – 2042 (12 min)
27 ticks

Pullback to 0.8734 – 2115 (45 min)
19 ticks

Notes: This report was a mildly conflicting with the CPI narrowly exceeding the forecast by 0.1% and the Trimmed Mean CPI falling short by 0.2%. We saw a premature spike in the wrong direction for 6 ticks that would have been barely contained by the 7 tick bracket. Then it fell short 31 ticks based on the trimmed reading to cross the S2 Mid Pivot after 3 sec. With JOBB and the recommended limit order, you would have filled short at about 0.8730 with 3 ticks of slippage. A profit target of anything less than 20 ticks would have filled immediately. Otherwise look to exit quickly around 0.8720 for 10 ticks as it chopped below the S1 Pivot and started to reverse after 6 sec. It reversed 31 ticks and hovered on the 50/100 SMAs as the bar was expiring. After that it pulled back 9 ticks on the next bar to the old location of the LOD before reversing for 27 ticks in the next 10 min to extend the HOD. Then it pulled back 19 ticks in 33 min.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 4.20.2015

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Apr 222015

4/20/2015 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Started @ 0.7685 (shift up 4 ticks to 0.7689)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7683 – 2130:09 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7689 – 2130:29 (1 min)
)))6 ticks
—————-
Final peak @ 0.7659 – 2144 (14 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 0.7671 – 2148 (18 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7669 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7707 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Minutes caused a muted short reaction that fell only 6 ticks in 9 sec before reversing 6 ticks in 20 sec. Due to the higher volatility in the cash rate reports in the last 3 months, we only recommended the outer tier. With the dull movement, cancel the order after 30 sec with no fill. After the reversal, it fell for a final peak of 24 more ticks in 13 min after crossing the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed 12 ticks in 4 min to the S1 Pivot.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 4.30.2015

Quarterly PPI Comments Off

May 032015

4/30/2015 Quarterly PPI (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.2%
Actual: 0.5%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7874 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span – 0.7874 to 0.7877
)))3 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7866 (just above the LOD) / 0.7858 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7882 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.7890 (on the HOD)

Notes: Report came in 0.3% higher than the forecast to cause a dull initial reaction that only moved 3 ticks and failed to cause much a move after that. Cancel the order with no fill after 20 sec.

6A 03-15 (1 Min) 3.2.2015

Building Approvals Comments Off

Mar 222015

3/2/2015 Building Approvals (1930 EST)
Forecast: -1.8%
Actual: 7.9%
Previous Revision: +0.5% to -2.8%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.7748
1st Peak @ 0.7763 – 1930:02 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.7750 – 1933 (3 min)
13 ticks

Double Top @ 0.7763 – 2002 (32 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.7751 – 2030 (60 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast to cause a long spike of 15 ticks that started just below the S2 Mid Pivot and rose to cross the 200 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot and extend the HOD. It gained 15 ticks then retreated 12 ticks immediately due to crossing the 200 SMA, then rebounded to hover in between the 200 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at about 0.7752 with 1 tick of slippage, then allowed about 8 ticks to be captured where it hovered. Then it reversed 13 ticks in the next 2 min to the 50 SMA. After that it climbed for a double top in 29 min before reversing 12 ticks in 28 min.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 5.4.2015

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

May 062015

5/4/2015 Monthly Trade Balance (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -0.98B
Actual: -1.32B
Previous Revision: -0.35B to -1.61B
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7822
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7812 – 2130:04 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7817 – 2130:19 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7813 – 2131:26 (2 min)
)))-4 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7825 – 2215 (15 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7814 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.7807 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.7830 (just above the HOD) / 0.7838 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.34B with a healthy downward revision to the previous report. This caused a short spike of 10 ticks in 4 sec that reached the PP Pivot then reversed. This would have filled the inner long entry with 2 ticks to spare then reversed 5 ticks to the LOD and hovered to allow 2-3 ticks to be captured. Then it pulled back 4 ticks before reversing 12 ticks in 13 min after crossing the 200 / 100 SMAs.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 5.5.2015

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

May 062015

5/5/2015 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (0030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.00% (25 BP cut)
Actual: 2.00% (25 BP cut)
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor point @ 0.7833
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7765 – 0030:03 (1 min)
)))68 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7831 – 0030:55 (1 min)
)))66 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7798 = 0031:28 (2 min)
)))33 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7890 – 0037 (7 min)
82 ticks

Pullback to 0.7854 – 0039 (9 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 0.7893 – 0058 (28 min)
39 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7780 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7886 (just below the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: After the last 3 reports had unexpected cut, and no move when a cut was expected causing much larger moves than we typically see, we finally nailed the settings on this report . The RBA acted as expected and cut rates 25 BP after the surprise cut in February. This caused a 68 tick short spike to nearly reach the S2 Pivot in 3 sec followed by a reversal of 66 ticks back to the origin in 52 sec. With This would have filled the inner long entry at 0.7780 with some possible positive slippage and ridden up to 15 ticks of heat then reversed nicely to allow up to 40+ ticks to captured. It would be wise to let it play out while moving the stop up to hedge profit. After the reversal it pulled back 33 ticks in 33 sec to the S1 Mid Pivot before reversing 82 ticks in 5 min to the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 36 ticks to nearly reach the R2 Mid Pivot in 2 min before reversing 39 ticks for a double top in 19 min. After that it continued to trend higher.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 5.5.2015

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

May 092015

5/5/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7919 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7907 – 2130:06 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7926 – 2130:50 (1 min)
)))19 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.7916 – 2134 (4 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.7938 – 2146 (16 min)
22 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7907 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.7900 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 0.7931 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7940 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Retail Sales report fell short of the forecast by 0.1% with no previous revision. This caused a short spike of 12 ticks in 6 sec that started on the 50/100 SMAs and fell to cross the 200 SMA and nearly reach the PP Pivot. This would have reached the inner tier to the tick and may have filled. If it did not, it hovered just above the PP Pivot for 7 sec to allow an opportunity to manually move the order up a tick or two to get a fill. Then it reversed 19 ticks in 44 sec to the HOD to allow up to 17 ticks to be captured. After that it pulled back 10 ticks in 4 min to the 200 SMA before reversing 22 ticks in 12 min after crossing the R1 Mid Pivot and extending the HOD.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 5.6.2015

AUS Employment change Comments Off

May 092015

5/6/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (2130 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 4.5K
Employment Change Actual: -2.9K
Previous Revision: +10.4K to 48.1K
Rate Forecast: 6.2%
Rate Actual: 6.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE (TRIPWIRE TO CANCEL)
Started @ 0.7924
1st Peak @ 0.7949 – 2130:06 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 0.7903 – 2130:18 (1 min)
-46 ticks

Pullback to 0.7945 – 2134 (4 min)
42 ticks

Continued Pullback to 0.7962 – 2147 (17 min)
59 ticks

Notes: Conflicting report with 2.9k jobs lost (7.4k below the forecast) with a match in the rate while the previous report was revised strongly better. This caused a premature long move of 22 ticks 7 sec early that collapsed as a tripwire to cancel the order. The setup would have been unstable but the probable anchor point would have been about 0.7924. On the choppy indecisive action you would have been filled long at 0.7932 then seen it chop around. A profit target placed at 15 ticks or less would have filled on the brief long move at 6 sec. Otherwise you would have eaten a small loss of 7-10 ticks before it would have fallen towards the stop loss. Another clear example of why we cancel the trades when we have a precursor of a losing scenario. After the chaotic :31 bar, it pulled back 42 ticks in 3 min to the area of the SMAs then another 17 ticks in 13 min to the HOD.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 5.7.2015

RBA Monetary Policy Comments Off

May 092015

5/7/2015 Quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE…SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.7881
1st Peak @ 0.7914 – 2130:14 (1 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 0.7875 – 2132 (2 min)
39 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.7854 – 2142 (12 min)
60 ticks

Notes: The Reserve Bank of Australia announced growth in Australia and its major trading partners has slackened since the new year while exports have declined driving the decision to cut interest rates in an attempt to weaken the currency. This caused a small long move then a quick small retracement followed by the true move of 33 ticks long to cross the PP Pivot and extend the LOD. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, you would have been filled long at 0.7884 with no slippage, then been stopped on the 5 tick retracement to the tick. We will expand the stop to 7-8 ticks on the next report as it prevented a very profitable trade in this case. It hovered near the top then reversed after 20 sec for 39 ticks in the next min to the LOD. Then it continued to reverse another 21 ticks in 10 min to the S1 Pivot.

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