6A 06-16 (1 Min) 3.14.2016

 RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes  Comments Off on 6A 06-16 (1 Min) 3.14.2016
Apr 052016
 

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 3_14_2016

3/14/2016 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2030 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Started @ 0.7486
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.7484 to 0.7485 – 2031 (1 min)
)))1 tick span
—————-

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7479 (just below the OOD) / 0.7470 -just above the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7493 (just above the HOD) / 0.7501 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: No reaction for a 2nd month in a row so cancel the trade. This did make a slow delayed reaction to climb to the R1 Mid Pivot on the :32 bar then hovered making a possible short entry opportunity as a reversal is likely. It then fell 25 ticks in 10 min and another 18 ticks in 25 more min.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 3.3.2016

 Monthly Retail Sales  Comments Off on 6A 03-16 (1 Min) 3.3.2016
Mar 262016
 

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 3_3_2016

3/3/2016 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7355
————
Trap Trade:
)))Whipsaw between 0.7358 and 0.7345 – 1930:10 (1 min)
)))+3 / – 10 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7337 – 2007 (37 min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7344 (just below the LOD) / 0.7336 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7365 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7376 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Small whipsaw would have just missed the inner long tier in the first second, then slowly drifted lower in the next 37 min. Cancel the order on the dull move.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 3.2.2016

 Monthly Trade Balance  Comments Off on 6A 03-16 (1 Min) 3.2.2016
Mar 262016
 

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 3_2_2016

3/2/2016 Monthly Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Forecast: -3.22B
Actual: -2.94B
Previous Revision: +0.02B to -3.52B
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7287
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7293 – 1930:12 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7288 – 1932:06 (3 min)
)))-5 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.7279 – 1945 (15 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7305 – 2019 (49 min)
18 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7279 (just below the LOD / 0.7272 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.7295 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7302 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel the order on a dull move and nearly matching results.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 3.1.2016

 Quarterly GDP  Comments Off on 6A 03-16 (1 Min) 3.1.2016
Mar 262016
 

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 3_1_2016

3/1/2016 Quarterly Advance GDP (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 1.1%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7163
1st Peak @ 0.7208 – 1931:05 (2 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 0.7201 – 1931:07 (2 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7232 – 1942 (12 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 0.7214 – 1952 (22 min)
18 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7172 (long)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7207 – 35 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7196 (just above the R1 Pivot) and 0.7208 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: A stable setup and low slippage fill on a healthy spike to the R2 Mid Pivot. On these bigger quarterly reports on the 6A, it is okay to be patient for a few more ticks as it will have biased sentiment for a while without wanting to reverse. Here we saw basically continuous upward momentum until the R2 Pivot was reached for the first 4 min. Then it achieved a 2nd peak a few min later and settled into a sideways channel. Not advisable to trade reversals on these trades.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.29.2016

 Cash Rate / RBA Statement  Comments Off on 6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.29.2016
Mar 262016
 

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2_29_2016

2/29/2016 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (2230 EST)
Forecast: 2.00% (no change)
Actual: 2.00% (no change)
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor point @ 0.7115
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7123 – 2230:02 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7111 – 2230:15 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7127 – 2231:59 (2 min)
)))16 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7117 – 2234 (4 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7136 – 2304 (34 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 0.7127 – 2328 (58 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7095 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot) / 0.7082 (just below the S3 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7136 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.7147 (on the HOD)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Small move but typical whipsaw. Cancel the orders on the small move. It eventually trended long to reach the PP Pivot on a 2nd peak.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.29.2016

 Building Approvals  Comments Off on 6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.29.2016
Mar 262016
 

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2_29_2016

2/29/2015 Building Approvals (1930 EST)
Forecast: -2.9%
Actual: -7.5%
Previous Revision: -0.6% to 8.6%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7132
1st Peak @ 0.7120 – 1931:27 (2 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.7125 – 1933 (3 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7116 – 1940 (10 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.7122 – 1945 (15 min)
6 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7128 (short)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 0.7121 – 7 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7122 (just above the S1 Pivot)

Notes: 1st peak would have reached the S1 Pivot, then a small reversal followed by a 2nd peak for a few more ticks to the S2 Mid Pivot.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.24.2016

 Quarterly Private Capital Expenditure  Comments Off on 6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.24.2016
Mar 232016
 

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2_24_2016

2/24/2016 Quarterly Private Capital Expenditure (1930 EST)
Forecast: -3.1%
Actual: 0.8%
Previous Revision: +0.8% to -8.4%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.7185
Whipsaw between 0.7196 and 0.7175 – 1930:03 (1 min)
21 tick span

1st Peak @ 0.7200 – 1930:07 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.7161 – 1933 (3 min)
39 ticks

Pullback to 0.7173 – 1939 (9 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.7154 – 2002 (32 min)
19 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7191 (long)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7179 – 12 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: First indecisive reaction seen on this report in the last 3 yrs due to unforeseen reasons. As it fell, it used the falling 13/20 SMAs as resistance while it stepped lower.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.17.2016

 AUS Employment change  Comments Off on 6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.17.2016
Mar 062016
 

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2_17_2016

2/17/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (1930 EST)
Employment Change Forecast: 12.9K
Employment Change Actual: -7.9K
Previous Revision: -0.2K to -0.8K
Rate Forecast: 5.8%
Rate Actual: 6.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.7171
1st Peak @ 0.7128 – 1931:53 (2 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 0.7140 – 1938 (8 min)
12 ticks

Pullback to 0.7129 – 1942 (12 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.7148 – 1959 (29 min)
19 ticks

Pullback to 0.7133 – 2006 (36 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.7158 – 2016 (46 min)
25 ticks

Pullback to 0.7140 – 2033 (63 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.7159 – 2045 (75 min)
19 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7158 (short)
Slippage: 5 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7129 – 29 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7130 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Disappointing result caused a bearish reaction that targeted and found support on the S1 Mid Pivot. The crossing of the PP Pivot caused some retracement early in the :30 bar, but be patient with the overall bearish results. After that the overall reversal stepped upward by oscillating over the next hour to reach the 200 SMA.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.15.2016

 RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes  Comments Off on 6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.15.2016
Mar 062016
 

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2_15_2016

2/15/2016 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Started @ 0.7148
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.7146 to 0.7148 – 2131 (1 min)
)))2 ticks span
—————-

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7141 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.7132 -just above the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7155 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.7163 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: No reaction so cancel the trade.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.4.2016

 Monthly Retail Sales  Comments Off on 6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.4.2016
Feb 222016
 

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2_4_2016

2/4/2016 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7189 – shift up 4 ticks to 0.7193
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7165 – 1930:10 (1 min)
)))-28 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7181 – 1931:49 (2 min)
)))16 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.7173 – 1933 (3 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.7193 – 1936 (6 min)
20 ticks

Pullback to 0.7173 – 2005 (35 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 0.7197 – 2022 (52 min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7181 (on the LOD) / 0.7170 (in between the S1/ S2 Mid Pivots)
Short entries – 0.7204 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.7213 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.7181 and 0.7170 – both long tiers
Best Initial Exit: 0.7180 – 9 ticks total
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7187 – on the 200 SMA – move lower

Notes: Very disappointing retail sales numbers likely conflicted with the concurrent RBA Policy Statement. This caused an outer tier fill with a small reversal initially followed by more after a few min. Then swings of about 20 ticks followed for the next hour or so.

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